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Teacherman1 (52.52)

I Should Have Listened To Myself

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March 04, 2010 – Comments (14)

I know, it's hindsight so it doesn't mean a thing. I also know that many others could say the same thing.

What gets me though is that I consider myself a longer term investor and not an intermediate trader.

I liked these stocks when I bought them back in Jan-April, but succombed to the urge to take profits and move on to the next one.

Below is a list of 9 stocks that I actually owned; the price I bought them at, and their price today.

Hun   $4.70         $13.38

PCX   $4.90         $19.10

Cenx  $3.51         $14.09

JDSU  $4.01         $11.35

NTGR  $11.84       $26.97

NVDA  $7.93        $16.66

STX    $5.51        $19.73

WDC   $13.92       $39.92

SNDK  $12.34       $32.17

I made a profit on them, and there were reasons I sold them, but I guess the moral of this story is, the "Price you buy at is important, but so is the Price you sell at"

Anyone else care to share their list of "Sold Too Soon" stocks, on this mostly "sideways" day?

Just for the record, in case you don't know ( and probably don't even care ), I actually own all the stocks in my CAPS picks. 

14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 04, 2010 at 8:00 PM, cashkid79 (93.64) wrote:

Yeah, almost every single one I closed on 4/20 last year (had to - I was leaving...) - just look at the section on my list, theres about 100 all closed on the same day (4/20/09) and had they not been, well (just go to 'ended', sort by date, and look at the first page (and 2nd, 3rd, etc.) of 'ended' picks on 4/20/09 and see the % gains yourself had they not been closed (it wasn't a choice really, I just didn't want to leave picks open that I couldn't actively monitor)...

I'll do the numbers if anyone's interested after looking (I really should spend more time on CAPS but life is busy for me right now, back then when I started the market around March, it was simpler - now I need to get paid, I'm a charitable person - but I do have limits) - market index was up too from 5/1 to now, but not that much...and in case you didn't know, I didn't own those, but had I known then...not going there ;>

cashkid79

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#2) On March 04, 2010 at 8:18 PM, cashkid79 (93.64) wrote:

Just looking at those 108 or so closed on 4/20, about 90% outperformed as of today (3/4/10) - and by a LOT for quite a few; in terms of CAPS scoring system, that move hurt me big time --- now, I'd do it again (I was on the market day&night) - but it takes a LOT of time to study correlations and research this stuff...and I live in a small city and am in school full-time - and I am not an independently wealthy individual...connect the dots (FRUSTRATING)

cashkid79

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#3) On March 04, 2010 at 8:26 PM, cashkid79 (93.64) wrote:

correction, not outperform (I don't have the time to check all that), but went up, not down...and 75% or so went up well beyond close date...bottom line, I don't have the time to put it all in a spreadsheet and calculate it tonight, but now I feel inclined to do so...well see if anyone is interested first...

cashkid79

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#4) On March 04, 2010 at 8:34 PM, TheDumbMoney (45.26) wrote:

I bought F at $2.85/share, sold at around $5.50.  Not happy about it.

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#5) On March 04, 2010 at 8:41 PM, cashkid79 (93.64) wrote:

TTI comes to mind...but the thing is, my CAPS portfolio is not and will never be 100% accurate representative of my or any real money portfolio, just because the way I use CAPS is as a TOOL to measure performance of different portfolio strategies AS WELL AS keep certain sector leading companies on my radar to keep up with current/emerging news, etc...I think I blogged that as my 1st or 2nd ever blog on CAPS though, so it should be clear if one did their due diligence

cashkid79

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#6) On March 04, 2010 at 8:43 PM, cashkid79 (93.64) wrote:

maybe there should be  a clear indicator added to CAPS profiles as to indicate real money positions for players or even to the specific pick of a player level...

cashkid79

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#7) On March 04, 2010 at 8:43 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

  bought and soldgoogle at 300 and I thought it was expensive then. told my friend about bidu early and he made money,while my money sloshed around the mudpits at franklin templeton!not this year, i'm in control!

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#8) On March 04, 2010 at 8:49 PM, dragonLZ (99.28) wrote:

Real life buys:

BAC bought at $5.40 / BAC's price today $16.40

CENX $4.08 / $14.09

CNO $1.35 / $5.75

DDR $2.91 / $10.82

FITB $4.35 / $12.33

FOE $2.51 / $8.93

GCI $3.40 / $16.07

GNW $2.09 / $16.02

HTZ $3.73 / $9.70

HWD $4.33 / $10.19

KFN $2.02 / $7.30

LVS $2.05 / $17.18 (I hate myself when I see this)

MIC $1.76 / $13.48 (could kill myself right now and right here)

MOD $2.51 / $10.24

SOA $3.35 / $14.40

TCK $9.80 / $39.35

 

All bought and sold in 2009. For some of them, I'd be ashamed to show my sell price. I'm an idiot, what can I say.

If I only listened to my wife...

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#9) On March 04, 2010 at 9:10 PM, cashkid79 (93.64) wrote:

Another idea...CAPS outta offer something for women looking to hook up with single all-stars, hehe...it'd help keep the best investors engaged in the site instead of getting either yelled at by non-like-minded girlfriends OR seeking like-minded future wifes in places not on CAPS (OR for women who don't mind spending their money in exchange for their husbands lifestyle/hours involved...haaa) , joking...

cashkid79

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#10) On March 04, 2010 at 9:56 PM, cashkid79 (93.64) wrote:

Here's a few of which I closed ALL on/before 4/20/09 -->>>

Start Date / *** / start price / price today

-----------   -----    -------------   ---------

03/09/09  HAL       $15.37  $31.45
03/16/09  RDC      $12.96  $27.42
03/17/09  TYC      $19.38  $36.60
03/17/09  SHS      $4.60  $12.11
03/19/09  EXLP     $12.89  $22.61
03/20/09  CLNE    $5.89  $18.78
03/20/09  OKE      $22.66  $46.85
04/03/09  ARG      $36.08  $65.57
04/03/09  CHSI     $20.63  $38.41
04/03/09  MMR     $5.13  $17.99
04/03/09  MPW     $3.95  $10.68
04/03/09  TTI        $3.37  $12.39
04/03/09  BCS      $10.27  $20.02
04/03/09  JCI        $15.01  $32.07
04/03/09  WBC     $13.72  $28.07
04/03/09  HWD     $3.14  $10.19
04/03/09  CEDC   $13.73  $32.78
04/03/09  MSB     $8.29  $19.01
04/03/09  MTL     $4.66  $24.90
04/06/09  CLF      $20.25  $58.65
04/06/09  EBIX     $8.56  $16.39
04/06/09  PETD   $12.95  $22.61
04/06/09  SLM     $5.41  $11.63
04/07/09  ARUN   $3.72  $12.41
04/07/09  BEZ      $16.85  $32.53

cashkid79

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#11) On March 05, 2010 at 3:42 PM, Teacherman1 (52.52) wrote:

Thank you cashkid- The purpose of the blog was to identify those that were owned (not just picked) and then were sold too soon.

My point was that picking the right price to sell at is as important as picking the right price to buy at.

Have a nice day. 

Dragon - ALWAYS listen to your wife. You may not do what she says, but ALWAYS listen :)

 

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#12) On March 05, 2010 at 4:11 PM, lemoneater (77.49) wrote:

I bought 10 shares of ISRG at $99 and sold 5 at $210. Last  time I checked the share price was $340. My husband asked why did you sell? I said I thought that the price was so high already and I didn't imagine it would triple. Live and learn :) Fact free intuition only takes a beginning investor so far.

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#13) On March 06, 2010 at 7:54 AM, cashkid79 (93.64) wrote:

"Fact free intuition only takes a beginning investor so far."  - I like that, lemoneater...

Regarding my 'picks'; I can assure you that I would have, would be, and will be using real money for almost all of the same picks (other than a handful of CAPS picks used as specific indicators, sectors and personal reasons) once I am in the position to do so responsibly...and considering that -- 'all but 15% of unsystematic risk may be eliminated with a carefully selected portfolio of 10 stocks, and all but 11%, with the portfolio of 20 stocks' -Wagner and Lau, "The Effect of Diversification on Risk" -- I figure my own optimum combination of individual stocks in my #1 (first ALL 'real' money) portfolio to be closer to a minumum of 35 stocks in order to effectively add those picks with which I have a particular good intuition are excellent reward/risk additions while still hedging the overly exposed sector(s) these picks are in and mitigating the additional risk...and herein lies the responsibly aspect of my comment...the capital involved in making the investment is not yet a resource that is fit to be used for this purpose by me personally - and I'm not going to gamble needlessly, especially because of impatience, when the time will come for the plan to execute soon enough...

As far as picks sold too soon, well I think just to play devil's advocate here I should mention that I personally know of at least one highly educated, intelligent, (and very successful) investor who experienced a major problem because of this very same investor mentality...specifically, looking at past examples of selling too soon in their portfolio and the gains lost on those particular picks was enough to carry over into their current investing activity and cause them to STAY in positions too long thinking that this was a flaw in their strategy that they would adjust for...well, the result was a domino effect of trying to compensate for one thing after another...right into the ground...I realize this is one example, however, the particular investor was quite successful and learned/traded with other experts so to speak and I take the lesson to heart for this reason (and that it makes sense)...Just a warning to anyone wanting to see both sides (pros/cons) of the point you are making in your blog here...

Fact free intuition on the other hand, that concept deserves at least its own blog to properly address...

cashkid79

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#14) On March 11, 2010 at 5:14 PM, rosemanjhk (53.25) wrote:

Bought F as well at 2.60, sold at 9.25 - better than my brother who sold at 8.00 - never thought they would be hanging around $13!!

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