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I think my score says a lot...

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September 24, 2009 – Comments (13)

My score yesterday morning: 562 out of 68,000.

My score this morning: 1073 (by the time I finish this post, it will probably be 1150).

If you tell me the correction hasn't started yet, I'd say you are crazy...

Click on SELL! to see what I mean.

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 24, 2009 at 12:17 PM, leohaas (32.11) wrote:

Correction, yes. But to what level? Are we talking S&P 1037, 900, 750, 666, or 598 as the bottom?

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#2) On September 24, 2009 at 12:27 PM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

I've added 3.44 pts to my rating today.  Speak for yourself.  Just 'cause that only brings me to 8 or so...

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#3) On September 24, 2009 at 2:08 PM, acoxen2009 (< 20) wrote:

Dragon,

How do you feel about HIL, VICL, and KERX now that you have revised your outlook on the direction of the markets? 

 

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#4) On September 24, 2009 at 2:16 PM, mikecart1 (98.70) wrote:

I am actually higher than ever.  People that drop today are the ones that don't have diversified portfolios.  I'm immune to stock market drops.  :o)

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#5) On September 24, 2009 at 3:45 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

More than a 3-5% correction is only for the speculative stocks that had/have no fundamentals.  A company whose stock was $10 two years ago doesn't mean it deserves to be even $3 today.  (i.e. GTN).  The retail investor is in herd mentality and the cliff is only a few sellers away. 

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#6) On September 24, 2009 at 3:49 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

acexen2009,  VICL and KERX are early stage pharmaceuticals. Anybody playing them on technicals is asking for trouble. You need to research these types of stocks, keep up with the trials, results, FDA dates, etc, and then ride out the good and bad peer reviews that they get along the way at these conferences.  Phase 1,2,3 etc data will result in pops that usually drop back about 20-30% of the peak and wait for more news. Those invested early have the most risk, but most reward.  Pharmaceuticals are a game unto theirselves, high risk, high loss or high reward.

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#7) On September 24, 2009 at 3:53 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

Acoxen, I don't think I revised my outlook. I said here, that at the end of this week, the market will start going down (and I still don't know if I'm right or wrong).

HIL, I think is a solid pick and eventually will get to $20-$30. If my prediction about the market's next move up (at the end of Oct.) is correct, I'll expect HIL to be a $13-$15 by the end of the year.

VICL and KERX are bio stocks so nobody knows what can happen there. My general opinion is that there is a huge bull market in bio stocks right now (comparable to the one that started at the March lows for the rest of the market), so everybody should own some.

I like VICL because is a slow but steady mover (up, of course), while KERX has these 30% jumps every few weeks (making it a little scary. However, at this price, I think it will be hard to lose money on it).

Disclaimer: I'm no expert by any means. I'm just guessing...

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#8) On September 24, 2009 at 4:06 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

TSIF, I see you answered while I was writing my reply...

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#9) On September 24, 2009 at 4:23 PM, acoxen2009 (< 20) wrote:

Dragon and TSIF,

Thank you both for your comments. I enjoy you posts and have started to follow/invest in some of you picks.

I currently own 1k shares inKV-A and ARIA and got into both around the 2.00. I think KV-A will do well going forward from what I have read. ARIA has me a little nervous still with this law suite reversal still up in the air. Any thoughts?

Totally off topic but do you think DRYS is a thumbs up or down? I got in at for 700 @5.50 and sold at 7.15. I am thinking it will be a wave to make some money off of, what are your takes on it?

 

 

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#10) On September 24, 2009 at 4:23 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

+1 for your disclaimer.  :)

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#11) On September 24, 2009 at 6:07 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

leohaas, sorry, I forgot about your question.

I think this correction will end somewhere around 940-960...

Disclaimer: I wouldn't be surprised if I'm right... :) 

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#12) On September 24, 2009 at 6:29 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

ARIA definitely fits my story about the bull market in bios. Green thumb from me (if you can afford to lose some money...bios, you know...).

I have no opinion on KVA and DRYS.

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#13) On September 24, 2009 at 7:05 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I'm bullish on KVA, but it may take some time to come out of it's FDA issues.  Trust is hard to win back. Overall if they don't screw up again, they should do well.

DRYS deserves to be at the bottom of the ocean. It is purely a speculative play.  It has a loyal following and will have it's share of the peaks that you might have opportunity to ride, but at the bottom is a trough. There are better shipping plays out there.

Aria: Mixed bag. Trying to find multiple uses of the same type of drug. This can be good if it works, but doubly bad if it doesn't. AS with the other comments on pharmas read everything you can find.  Since they are trying to apply the same technique to multiple cancerns the data is hard to follow. Phase 3 is the drug in the last phase. The safety is one key. They have orphan drug status meaning it could see a more rapid path to the FDA, cutting a year or more off the timeline, but that doesn't mean it's going to pass. Besides safety next look at effectivity. If the drug is less than 20% as effective as the placebo then it's a no go.  They are partnered with Merck which means they are less likely to dilute shareholders.  All in all, I'm not getting good vibes from the limited reading I did. There is little showing that this type of platform is efficient. Merck and Aria are still holding discussion on the drug in breast cancer.  I'm doubtful of this one ,but I wouldn't want to turn anyone off of a potential big winner. The line they are working on, if successful would be huge.  The FDA is a fickle master.  One never knows right up to the decision.

Good luck.

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