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dragonLZ (99.34)

I think WL has reached the bottom...

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October 13, 2010 – Comments (31) | RELATED TICKERS: WL.DL

I think I'm 4 days late on this call, as in my opinion, WL actually reached the bottom on 10/7/10, when it was at $7.34. Today, WL is already at $8.35. 

However, Wilmington Trust Corp, a regional bank, is still 59% (yes, fifty-nine percent) off its 52W high, and if I'm right about this call, there is a lot of CAPS points to be had until this stock gets back to $20 where it was just 6 months ago.

I actually have a feeling that this stock will probably be back to at least $15 by the end of this year.

Here is a chart showing what happened with this stocks for the last 12 months.

As this chart is a "rolling" chart, whoever comes back to this post a month or two from here, will be able to see if this stock continued to go up or if these 4 positive days were just a small bump in the chart before WL nosedived again.

GO WL and Good Luck Everybody.

Disclaimer: I wouldn't post this if I didn't think my opinion/feeling is correct. However, I would only recommend this stock as your CAPS play, not a Real Life one.

31 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 13, 2010 at 5:17 PM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

Not in Real Life! I would rather have $'s than points!! : )

What are your favorite 3 plays right now? 

 

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#2) On October 13, 2010 at 5:31 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

Wow, man, so hard to pick.

Before the end of this week, I'll probably post something like I can't believe these stocks are this cheap (but are coming back strong).

Examples:

FCH up 38% since Sept. 1, but still 39% off 52W high

FR up 43% since 9/1, but still 35% off 52W high

CPE up 38% since 9/1, 42% off 52W high (this one is a sleeper that explodes from time to time)

NFP up 38%, off 21%

AGO, up 29%, off 29%

... 

 

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#3) On October 13, 2010 at 5:33 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

NFP

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#4) On October 13, 2010 at 5:34 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

FR

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#5) On October 13, 2010 at 5:35 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

FCH

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#6) On October 13, 2010 at 5:36 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

CPE

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#7) On October 13, 2010 at 5:37 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

AGO

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#8) On October 13, 2010 at 5:42 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

Momentum21, I appreciate your comments.

Good Luck!

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#9) On October 14, 2010 at 10:56 AM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

I picked some up in RL at 7.91...

Speculating between this one and DJSP today, so at least I think I got the lesser of 2 evils in a way.

I also like UMPQ as far as regional banks go. Good luck to us! 

 

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#10) On October 14, 2010 at 12:19 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

Son of a gun... WL is down 7% today.

Haven't expected that at all.

You should be smarter than that, Momentum21, than to follow me in RL.

But let's hope WL dropped just so you can get a better entry point. :)

Good Luck.

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#11) On October 14, 2010 at 2:40 PM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

It's always darkest before the dawn dragon...sometimes those periods go on longer than others. 

I bought DJSP as well today as 1.99, now I am back in deep after swearing that I would re-invest my recent gains in MSFT and MCD. This one is super risky even down at these levels...SUPER  

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#12) On October 14, 2010 at 3:24 PM, jamiecalabro (< 20) wrote:

dragonLZ: Earnings have consistently disappointed and that trend will most likely continue for some time. Do you have any other rational behind this play other than percentage off its 52wk high? 

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#13) On October 14, 2010 at 3:46 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

jamiecalabro, I don't pay attention to fundamentals at all. I have no idea what their earnings are: good, bad or terrible.

I actually didn't know this was a regional bank stock until just the other day.

I invest solely based on charts (and a few other things that I think are important).

What got me to follow this stock is the fact that lately it was the worst performer in a couple of my CAPS portfolios. And I watched it drop lower and lower...

Then, on 10/6 it dropped another 15% on 10X average volume. Based on my experience, when a stock is falling for a long time, then drops quite a bit on high one-day volume, that usually means even the captain (and his parrot) jumped the ship.

Usually, that's the time when it safe to get into that stock again.

Just my opinion, of course... 

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#14) On October 14, 2010 at 3:47 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

Momentum21, I hate DJSP's chart, but Good Luck to you brother. :)

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#15) On October 14, 2010 at 3:52 PM, Momentum22 (30.26) wrote:

TMF Writers jumping ship as well... : )

The issues here are out in the open (although valuations on all banks these days are definitely murky at best)...and yes, if you are looking to round out your portfolio with a financial name WL would be towards the bottom.   

This is a bottom feeder delight. We nailed 7.50 today...I am going to "call it" there.  

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#16) On October 14, 2010 at 4:00 PM, EnigmaDude (95.73) wrote:

dragon,

Chart eye-balling will only get you so far.  You may want to start looking more closely at fundamentals before you invest real $$.  This one looks like a falling knife to me.

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#17) On October 14, 2010 at 4:59 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Ouch Momentum, I jumped ship on DJSP around $4.  The more I looked at it, the more it smelled, short term history, getting predominantly all of it's business and money from one lender, I believe in PA.  Looks like an interesting Short Term trade, but it still smells to much to me. Good luck with it!

WL with banking under the spotlight due to mortgage activity, still owing it's tarp and raising money AGAIN looks too far gone to me as well. I know you don't look at Fundamentals, but I don't think the two high volume days really turned over that many owners.  They have a float of 90 Million shares and a short interest of 10%.  They didn't drop much more today than the index, so more than likely they will bounce back up with regional banks at some point, but I think there are better options.

I do like AGO on your other charts.  My CAPs limit never cut in, but it's had a nice run in my portfolio.

Good luck!

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#18) On October 15, 2010 at 1:26 AM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

dragon,

Chart eye-balling will only get you so far.  You may want to start looking more closely at fundamentals before you invest real $$.  This one looks like a falling knife to me.

Thanks EnigmaDude. I appreciate your concern and your advice. 

I do like AGO on your other charts.  My CAPs limit never cut in, but it's had a nice run in my portfolio.

TSIF, are you trying to jinx AGO after its today's 9% jump? Didn't we say no more agreeing on our calls for the sake of our finacial well being? :)

As you know, my timing is usually pretty bad, but I'm confident the 5 stocks from those charts are really nice plays at these levels. I just can't tell when they will play out.

Right now, we just need to wait and see...

Good Luck All!

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#19) On October 15, 2010 at 9:44 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I was hoping we could break that curse at some point, but you are quite correct, much better to LEAVE it alone!  I'll look at the other 4 when I get the chance, but I'm struggling to look at any REIT's although some will bounce back eventually, I thought CPE looked the most interesting on my quick pass, but some of these small oil plays got some bounces from speculation that other countries were looking for small players in the US to get a niche. I just don't see the logic in that.   I'll keep mum if I agree with any!

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#20) On October 22, 2010 at 2:29 PM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

reverse flash crash! : ) booyah

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#21) On October 22, 2010 at 3:10 PM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

Sold 1/2 at 9.10 just in case the action dies down. It would be sad to see this sink back into the 7's

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#22) On October 22, 2010 at 3:33 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

Smart move, M21.

I think WL is reporting earnings on 11/1, and this stock could easily lose 30% on that day, if news is bad.

Of course, I still hope for the best. 

As always, Good Luck. :)

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#23) On October 22, 2010 at 3:35 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Good call to sell some. Flash moves up rarely hold. It only took half a million shares to drive it up and it's holding with another 6 Million trading, so this one seems to have some solid players wanting in at $9.00.   All of it seems to be caused by management saying it is "shopping itself out".  Sometimes nothing happens and the hype dies down, sometimes it means they already found a buyer and will anounce it very shortly. IN this case, the 12% jump it got may already include any buyout premium!  Good luck on your other half position!!!   Two ticker halts kicked in due to new SEC regs, so it's hard to say what it would have done if left alone.

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#24) On October 22, 2010 at 3:59 PM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

I am out at 8.85...need a clear head for this ARNA decision...and who knows what they might find if they look under the hood here... : )

 

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#25) On October 22, 2010 at 4:31 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

Wow, WL closed at $8.46, gaining "only" 4.8%.

Can you believe that at one point today, WL was at $9.64, at +19.5%? Wow.

Still, today's action looks good on the chart. The volume was very good - 10X the average volume, and even with the end-of-the-day sell-off, it was still an up day.

We also can't forget that this morning WL was down 6% (right before the "reverse flash crash" started).

However, I do think you made a smart move getting out. A few smaller gains sure "hurt less" than one big loss. :)

Good Luck with ARNA.

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#26) On October 22, 2010 at 4:36 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

TSIF, I just now saw your comment #23. You posted it approx. at the same time I posted #22.

Have a great weekend.

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#27) On October 22, 2010 at 4:38 PM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

In retrospect this wasn't a good choice for me. I do like the regional banks but typically I prefer to speculate on stuff that I feel gives me some time...the potential upside here did not merit the potential of further loss. 

KEY or UMPQ are better bets in the space. They have a brighter looking potential without being taken out. I won't touch them until BAC stabilizes some though...

That doesn't mean that I don't like your volume story or I don't think this will go up. It just didn't feel right. Thanks man!  

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#28) On October 22, 2010 at 4:38 PM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

In retrospect this wasn't a good choice for me. I do like the regional banks but typically I prefer to speculate on stuff that I feel gives me some time...the potential upside here did not merit the potential of further loss. 

KEY or UMPQ are better bets in the space. They have a brighter looking potential without being taken out. I won't touch them until BAC stabilizes some though...

That doesn't mean that I don't like your volume story or I don't think this will go up. It just didn't feel right. Thanks man!  

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#29) On October 22, 2010 at 4:50 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

I heard you the first time, you don't have to repeat your posts. :)

Btw., my WL-bottom-pick has nothing to do with my Volume Story. Actually, it doesn't fit my M.O. at all.

I also agree with you, WL is a scary pick right now. Not because of the Halloween season, but because of everything that's happening around the banking sector.

Good Luck.

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#30) On October 25, 2010 at 11:56 AM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

Momentum, I think it's safe to say you made the right decision to sell last Friday. WL is down 11% today.

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#31) On October 25, 2010 at 12:53 PM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

Yes, I was very lucky I was sitting at my computer...I think I will stay away from this ticker for now. The banks are just getting throttled and this one seems to be on the bottom of the scrum.  : )

 

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