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I win, I win. January auto sales down 37.1%



February 03, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: GM , F , TM


I win, I win.  This morning I stated that the analysts prediction of -30% for January auto sales was a little on the light side (see post: Today's Economic Indicator: January Auto Sales).  Specifically I said:

"To me, one of the most important barometers of what sort of shape the economy is in right now is sales of big ticket items like new vehicles.  Today automakers will publish their sales totals for January 2009.  A few days ago, the automotive Web site forecast that U.S. light vehicle sales for January were down 30% versus the same period a year ago and off 18% from the level reported in December (see article: Edmunds.Com Predicts January Sales Will Remain Flat, But .......

I personally believe that the January sales were worse than that.  I'm looking for a drop in the mid-30% range at least.  The hardest hit will likely be luxury brands like BMW and Mercedes-Benz...and of course the mess that is Chrysler.  I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Chrysler's U.S. sales were down over 50% AGAIN this month.  Even traditional titans like Toyota likely saw soft sales in January. 

The only brand that seems to be immune to the massive slowdown in light vehicle sales thus far is Subaru (a subsidiary of Fuji Heavy Industries and partially owned by Toyota - 16.7%).  Consumers seem to be flocking to the company, seeing its AWD vehicles as a tremendous value for the money.

It will be interesting to see exactly what January was like.  I plan on updating the comments section of this blog post throughout the day with manufacturers' press releases when I see them if I can find the time.


Who thankfully has no position in any automaker"

Too bad the prize for my prediction being more accurate than the popular analysts' numbers is in this case is a busted economy.  January sales totals for automakers generally tend to be a little light when compared to December because manufacturers run huge sales promotions at the end of the year and pull-ahead as many sales as possible to make their annual totals look better. 

Having said this, compared to the same period last year, total light vehicle sales in the U.S. fell 37.1% in January.   This is clearly not a good sign for the economy.  Here's how a few of the companies that I mentioned in my post and a few other interesting ones performed in January:

GM -48.9%

Ford -39.0%

Chrysler -54.8%

Toyota -31.7%

Mercedes -42.9%

Volvo -63.8%

Porsche -36.1%

Subaru +8.0%

Chrysler sales plunge 55 pct; GM, Toyota also down


P.S. I told you that Chrysler is a dead man walking.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 03, 2009 at 6:10 PM, TMFDeej (97.73) wrote:

Of note, U.S. auto sales were the worst since 1963


Here's the big one...China surpassed the U.S. in January, making it the largest market for new vehicles in the world.


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#2) On February 03, 2009 at 6:39 PM, falang1 (< 20) wrote:

I read an interesting prediction that although US sales will not break new records for a long time (>17 million), world auto sales are supposed to be at new all time highs in 2-3 years.  This is good news for those positioned well, such as Toyota and even GM.  Chrysler, not so much.  Fiat I don't think will help them too much there.  Mercedes/BMW should be fine but not sure about Volvo.

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