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Varchild2008 (84.02)

I'll be the lone contrarian on SPF if I have to!



April 21, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: SPF.DL

Lots of people chiming in with underperforms based on Alstry's underperforms don't impress me at all.  I'll be the lone SPF contrarian if I have to.

When I analyze a company I don't consider the management's past ill behavior or bad apples as my #1 motivator.  Besides I think the main guy that Alstry bashed, no longer works at Stan.dard Pacific Corp.  Look at UBS for a great example.  Ever since OSPEL was sent packing the stock price has grown +$3 or so.  Alstry obsesses over the past.  But investors don't price a stock based on past performance.  They price a stock based on expected future performance. 

What I look at is the entire picture of a company. 

#1:  Does SPF have enough diversification to survive the housing crisis?  By that, I mean is there anything to like out there for profitability's sake?

SPF's housing in Texas and the Carolinas is actually profitable.  They  are in the green!
Furthermore, February foreclosure buying statistics recently released showed that foreclosed homes are being bought at an increase of 2.1% if my memory of the report is correct.

 #2:  The product matters!

Maybe the price is bad.  But the product matters and you'd have  to be out of your mind to find fault with SPF's homes and condos.  The architecture is truly stunning.  Maybe the price is bad?

 #3:  SPF is diversified in 16 states.  Believe it or not that matters a lot.  Not every single state is as bad as the other.  Diversification will keep SPF afloat.

#4:  If Alstry's bashing of SPF was so wonderful for all to worship why hasn't SPF gone bankrupt yet?  Why has the S&P analysis report still considering SPF a HOLD rather than a SELL?

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 21, 2008 at 9:55 PM, Varchild2008 (84.02) wrote:

I apologize I can't type well on this stinking laptop.  The 2.1% foreclosed homes I had thought was the figure for homes in the west.

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#2) On April 22, 2008 at 9:31 AM, Gemini846 (34.27) wrote:

SPF was an interesting bug to say the least. I shorted it along with other homebuilders and was surprised when it gained rather than lost.

I put it on my check back in the future list as one of the ones I might be interested in when the market becomes more stable.

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#3) On April 22, 2008 at 12:58 PM, floridabuilder2 (97.55) wrote:

alstry's bashing of SPF is sometimes personal...  i really have nothing personal for or against any builder...  I will say this... when the ceo left and was replaced by someone on wall street... that was a bad sign...  i've talked to several people in the industry and i expect something bad to pop out of spf until further notice... and I was a big SPF bull...

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#4) On April 22, 2008 at 1:30 PM, Energypartners (96.74) wrote:


It nice to see some bulls out there!. I posted against Alstry last fall and made a lot of money buying SPF stock and calls. When SPF stock fell below 4, I called SPF a great trading stock, and was rewarded. Alstry posted 20-30 times a day about SPF going BK  before the end of 2007. I bought my last chunk of stock & calls when SPF plunged below 2. I sold all my positions when SPF climbed above 4.5/5 a share.

I have now turned negative like FB on SPF and the HB's. For SPF, it was trading at 13% of its net asset value, but now SPF is trading above 50% of NAV imho. It all about the deal, and I think SPF will go back down to 3.

I would love to be wrong about SPF, and see it crank to 20 again! This would mean the US is out of the recession, and my long portfolio would be i great shape.

Good luck, and don't get bullied by other poster like Alstry..... 




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