April 19, 2013
– Comments (15) |
RELATED TICKERS: IAG
Commodity Stocks, as of Yesterday (4-17-13). Gold stocks (especially), silver stocks, coal stocks, steel stocks. (You Name it). I've waited for this day for 5 Long years.
Great timing. Sentiment in gold and silver (according to spot price) the worst in 30 years? Now, the physical market--that's a different story. I'd pick up some physical gold/silver as well, while you can still get it; it's becoming quite difficult. Admittedly the miners provide the best value, but physical provides some additional insurance.
Thanks for the tip. For clarity, I'm sticking with the miners going forward.
SAND, PAAS, IAG, GG, etc.
How is it becoming quite difficult? Just go to a bullion dealer website, theres a million of them. Paper gold and physical gold have the same price and are equally easy to get
Careful. I sure hope you're not margined either. (if you are, maybe consider closing any margin/borrowed positions immediately?)
There could be further hurt in the miners/commodity prices as both the US broader equities and commodities are at relative multi-year elevated levels.
The US dollar in your wallet, in your paycheck / unemployment check, savings may have the potential to buy more of these things in two years time.
"How is it becoming quite difficult? Just go to a bullion dealer website, theres a million of them. Paper gold and physical gold have the same price and are equally easy to get"
Physical silver IS becoming harder to purchase--it is the most difficult I have seen it in the three years I have been purchasing it. I have never seen demand so strong. Local coin stores tell me the demand is insatiable, and unline in 2008, no one i selling. There is absolutely NO disputing that premiums have shot skyward, everywhere, particularly on lower denominated, higher sought after mints. I have spoken to several coin stores in my area--I cannot buy anything from them--not even gold.
Gold premiums are creeping up, although private investment demand remains far behind silver. Gold is much easier to get on-line closer to spot, 5-10% premiums, whereas with silver it is extremely difficult to find anything less than $28/ounce. To take advantage of the extremely low spot prices in both gold and silver many people, who formerly bought small denominations of silver have now moved into the large bricks and gold in general to obtain better prices. Therefore, gold, and large silver bricks are the last to see the premiums rise, but it is happening now.
$24.90 per ounce by check
Even if premiums are higher than usual (which I cannot verify), the fact that physical silver is still WAY DOWN in price compared to physical silver a year ago and 2 years ago, and I dont think supply has risen that dramatically, that means DEMAND IS LOWER.
I would like to add, that at these levels, I would definitely consider silver a buy, I just dont like the fact that I have NEVER, EVER seen a silver investor say they were wrong....when price goes up theyre genius, when price goes down they have 500000 excuses, and its ridiculous.
^ excuse number 500001- I was quite drunk at the time..
Gotta enjoy the stackable form of AUY.
I should really consult this-
"Even if premiums are higher than usual (which I cannot verify), the fact that physical silver is still WAY DOWN in price compared to physical silver a year ago and 2 years ago, and I dont think supply has risen that dramatically, that means DEMAND IS LOWER."
I like how you quoted the bulk (50+) price of 24.90. How many small private investors are buying over $10,000 worth at a time? I have been buying silver for a LONG time with a dollar cost average/ buy on dip methodology, where each purchase has been $1000 or less. ADDITIONALLY, you are NOT comparing apples to apples. Buying that bar at such volumes used to have minute premiums, 1.5% or less. That price quote is a 6.5% premium! By the way what do the premiums look like on maples, eagles and 90% silver?
There is absolutely no use in debating premiums for physical silver across the board are up enormously. This is as pointless of an argument as you saying gravity doesn't exist. I have been doing this for way too long and following the market WAYY to closely, to give credence to an argument that states otherwise.
Demand is lower? That's funny. Down is up, on is off, and the sky, no, it is not blue. The bs spot "price" is losing relevance. It's a manipulative tool that does NOT reflect the current state of supply and demand, as you would like to think.
"I would like to add, that at these levels, I would definitely consider silver a buy, I just dont like the fact that I have NEVER, EVER seen a silver investor say they were wrong....when price goes up theyre genius, when price goes down they have 500000 excuses, and its ridiculous."
I really despise generalizations such as this. Every precious metal investor does not embody this attitude. Gold and silver were overbought on their price spikes to $1900 and $50 respectively, and a significant correction was expected, and understood as a natural market response. Most investors in this space have agreed with that. Likewise the severe correction in 2008 could also be logically explained based on short term market fundamentals and the context of what was happening around the world and in other markets.
At a 6.5% premium over spot, is the price for the same bar still lower than it was last year? Yes. If silver is down 20%, even if the premium is up 4%, the friggin thing is still down 16%....therefore physical demand is still lower....how is this debatable?
CLF knocked the cover off the ball After Hours Today. I lucked out and loaded up, BigTime in the 17s. I think the commodity cycle is (has turned) turning.
You might be onto something. I noticed in this past weekend's classified ads that Hecla Mining is doing a lot of hiring, and their stock was up about 11% today. I'm not personally a fan of metals or mining stocks but there does appear to be a trend developing.
@HoldThatWinner & @MoneyWorksforme,
Your 'I'm all in' picks from 4/17/13 have underperformed even further highlighting the continuation of the extreme move.
These picks have lost over 100 caps points; about (114). Across 21 picks, thats an average underperform, (5.42) per pick vs S&P.
Now, maybe a better time to get in these similar positions to outperform the S&P 500.
I feel it may be less risk entering now, however proceed with caution, as with most things 'investing', it is gambling and I sure hope you're not margined either. (if you are, maybe consider closing any margin/borrowed positions immediately? and not go margined going forward.)
@SuperPicks, run those numbers again champ. As of 8/27/13, I am up, BIGTIME.
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