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I'm feeling stupid right now



March 16, 2009 – Comments (13)

I lost $100 betting on a shell game once.  I mean that literally.  It was so easy to follow which shell the little ball was under.  Until they took my money and tricked me of course.  After they took my money, it was so easy to see in hindsight that the ball was not under ANY of the 3 shells by the time I picked.  Boy did I feel like an idiot.  I was much more angry at myself for being so stupid than I was at the scam operators.

I feel that way now about the little trick our government has just perpetrated.  It seems so obvious in hindsight.  Here's the trick:

1) Keep the mood, outlook and confidence levels low in order to make sure the massive stimulus package gets passed.  "Look at the stock market going down every day.  We have to DO SOMETHING".

2) Now that the stimulus package has been passed, be an economic and market cheerleader.

Blindingly obvious now, after the fact.  If you were someone who realized that the ball had been snuck away from all three shells before you got to pick, congratulations.  I didn't see it.

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 16, 2009 at 1:31 PM, RootnToot (29.21) wrote:

Yes, our Prez may be many things, but stupid is not on the list. So much for change we can believe in!

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#2) On March 16, 2009 at 2:05 PM, Tastylunch (28.52) wrote:

Yeah well that's how politics always works.Unless there is megadrama nothing gets passed. They are usually reactive not proactive.

As they say in washington "never let a good crisis go to waste"

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#3) On March 16, 2009 at 5:14 PM, rocksnot (28.19) wrote:

I can't say enough how much I like your blog commentaries. 

I am not convinced, however, that the market will follow Obama's optimism much longer.

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#4) On March 16, 2009 at 5:38 PM, lenri (67.83) wrote:

Madoff goes to jail and the DC pols (the shepherds) get re-elected. Go figure.

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#5) On March 16, 2009 at 5:59 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

And NOTHING has changed.  We borrow, spend, and squander.  We fund politically correct programs and entitlements of incredible expense, and "create" jobs by siphoning off private capital.  The only thing that has changed is there are new people pulling the same strings.

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#6) On March 16, 2009 at 7:15 PM, rofgile (98.97) wrote:

The politics of the United States and cable media is that of FEAR.

FEAR sells - that's why people read Alstry's blogs.

Here's a list of things sold by fear:

 Cold War,

 Drug War,

 Gulf War,

 Iraq War,

 700 Billion Bailout.


 Use you head, buy stocks if you want and think that the company is undervalued - don't follow the media. 

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#7) On March 16, 2009 at 10:35 PM, beyondanonda (< 20) wrote:

Yes we were hoodwinked again Doh!

Cant wait to hear that the secret ballot for union elections is destroying businesses and we have to pass the card check bill pronto...or all is lost.

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#8) On March 16, 2009 at 11:53 PM, coralbro (91.70) wrote:

The American citizenry says... 

"fool me once...shame on you

fool me twice...shame on me

fool me over and over and over must be a politician.  Damn it.  Why do I keep falling for this crap?" 

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#9) On March 17, 2009 at 1:08 AM, tonylogan1 (27.49) wrote:

They've got a long ways to go....

Think how big the crisis needs to get to get healthcare transformed and all the other socialist / communist manifesto bullet points to complete.

They can't go and let the market recover at this point, or they won't get a chance to implement their grander vision.

Obama is only being a cheerleader now, becuase it got to be too obvious what he is doing.

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#10) On March 17, 2009 at 3:33 AM, uclayoda87 (28.50) wrote:

Short term prediction:  Obama may get a nice bear market bounce on his charm and high approval rating, but the closer we come to April 15 (TAX DAY), the more likely we will have a major sell off, back down to the 6000 to 6500 range.

The magnitude of the financial loss seen on the 401Ks, may cause enough people to go completely into cash and wait out the rest of the year.  So a potential buying opportunity may develop after tax day.

If you were lucky and bought good stocks last week, then you get to play chicken with the market over the next two weeks.  Cash out today and pick up 20%+ gains, wait a few days for more gains or wait too long and just get your principal back.

Clint Eastwood put it well:  "Do you feel lucky, punk?  Well do you?"


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#11) On March 17, 2009 at 4:02 AM, Xciteddon (65.63) wrote:

" Go Ahead, make my day!" comes to mind too.

Well we are learning a lesson on how far our President will go. Speaks volumes for his character if you ask me. I don't think his popularity polls will mean much in the future. He will just be another politician.

Fortunately for us, we all can learn a lesson and go on from here. He can't take our pride from us. We are Americans. We will be able to come out of this, regardless (maybe I should say in spite of ) him.

Eventually what goes down has to go up!

Try to do the best you can. Learn, and move ahead


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#12) On March 17, 2009 at 2:19 PM, ahobbs (< 20) wrote:

"The economy is fundamentally sound."

Those words doomed John McCain's campain for President, and Obama hammered him for weeks with it.  Forward 5 months and now the Obama adminstration is saying it.  That's the world of politics for ya...

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#13) On March 23, 2009 at 11:36 AM, jmt587 (99.30) wrote:

Xciteddon, I think you have that saying about gravity wrong.

Don't get me wrong though, I'm a long term bull.

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