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I'm getting excited to buy..



August 25, 2010 – Comments (44)

I've been seeing a lot of fear, uncertainty and bad news lately.  My own pessimism levels feel a bit high, but my brain is thinking that it's starting to look like a good time to buy again.

Indeed, I am starting to see some sale prices on stocks:

 MTW has fallen below $9/share - that's a strong buy from me.  I'm currently overweight on this, so I would probably buy something else to diversify more.

 EGLE is almost cheap at $4.50/share - if it goes below 4 its a strong buy.  Also overweight.

 PRGN is at $3.6 / share - strong buy.  Possible for me, I don't own any shares yet - but I don't like that they are so much in the bigger capesize vessels.

 VWDRY is at $12.75 ( from $23 just a couple of weeks ago ) - if it goes below $12/share its a strong buy.  Vestas is truly on sale, but, I might wait on this one - it could get quite cheaper.  Wind power is having a very bad year.  Longterm, this is not a trend - Vestas is seeing a growing backlog of sales already, so the bottom should be in for them, but the market may penalize them more for lowering guidance this last week.

 AONE is at $6.47 / share.  I don't own any here, I need to do more research on this one.

 STP is near $7.50 / share.  Besides the glut of silicon, this is an interesting one.

 OTTR is at $18/share.  - Safe buy, but not a sale.  I've thought about this one a fair amount, a good utility / diversified company with some wind power aspect I like.  Less into the vinyl companies...

 INTC is at near $18/share - This is another safe but good purchase.. 

 I've been building money in my IRA to make some purchases.  So far this is my watch list.  Anyone else have thoughts on good deals that you are seeing in the markets now?  I'm building ideas before I make my next purchases.



 I was just looking at MTL - holy moly!  Congrats to AndreyLovesMTL - that stock is at $20/share now.. when I had it in CAPS it was $3.5/share, and I sold at $4.5.  Wow that guy was right!


44 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 25, 2010 at 10:32 AM, outoffocus (24.08) wrote:

I think the this distinction needs to be made between the overall market and individual stocks. It is currently a stock pickers market.  The overall market sucks. So its probably not a good idea right now to buy any market index funds.  But you can still outperform by picking individual stocks and sectors to invest in. 

I am bearish the overall market, bullish certain stocks.  Actually one of my limit orders just triggered today and I'm happy.

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#2) On August 25, 2010 at 10:51 AM, rofgile (99.61) wrote:


 What did you buy?


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#3) On August 25, 2010 at 10:52 AM, lorteungen (99.66) wrote:

Overall I think this is a buying opportunity, but Vestas in particular is a great buy around these levels. The earnings "disappointment" was entirely predictable and caused by the almost complete lack of orders in the first half of 2009. Now orders are booming, but investors (if that term can even be used anymore) are selling off like there's no tomorrow. This is a great company (although in a less attractive industry) with honest and capable management. I would've added to my Vestas position if it wasn't for the screaming buy that is CRH. Mr Market really is a lunatic.

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#4) On August 25, 2010 at 10:58 AM, rofgile (99.61) wrote:

lorteungen -

 CRH looks interesting, I will read up on that one some more.  I agree that Vestas is terribly priced right now.  A lot is just investor sentiment, which will be quite poor on this one.  

 I remember how badly investors penalized MTW for the sin of buying Enodis (which now is the ONLY reason they are generating positive cash flow and have a good future - stupid investors!).   A similar penalty could easily occur with Vestas for the sin of lowering guidance - and breaking the growth stock appearance.  


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#5) On August 25, 2010 at 11:02 AM, outoffocus (24.08) wrote:


FCG.  Its probably one of the best natural gas plays out there. I missed out on a huge buying opp last year so I finally got another one today.

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#6) On August 25, 2010 at 11:08 AM, rofgile (99.61) wrote:

outoffocus - nice, thanks for letting me know!

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#7) On August 25, 2010 at 12:07 PM, lorteungen (99.66) wrote:


you could also take a look at some of the consulting firms, such as FCN, CRAI and ICFI. I own some CRAI and although times are certainly tough, I just can't see why they should be selling at these prices. Most are selling well below their 2009 lows.

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#8) On August 25, 2010 at 1:08 PM, blake303 (28.57) wrote:

Speaking of wind, I have been watching Gamesa (GCTAF.PK) lately. It suffered a double whammy being in the wind industry and headquartered in Europe (Spain). It is currently at its 52-week low of $6.60. It was trading above $50 two years ago (when I brilliantly called outperform) and was trading at 3x today's price as late as Jan 2010, which does not necessarily mean it should be trading in either of those ranges today - just shows how badly it has been beaten down. There are some compelling pitches here and top fools seem to love it (5 Stars, All 68 All-Stars have outperforms). Despite this, it has been the definition of a falling knife. Any thoughts? 

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#9) On August 25, 2010 at 1:10 PM, mickeyc21 (29.73) wrote:

outoffocus - implied correlation is at the highest level in history. This is the worst stock picking environment in the entire history of the market.

As for being excited to buy now - we are well over 50% higher than lows reached a little over a year ago! Being excited after a huge run up is hardly novel. 


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#10) On August 25, 2010 at 1:19 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

EMC is currently pretty cheap. The "degree of cheapness" depends quite a bit on the VMW share price of course ...

Vietnamese equities might be pretty cheap currently (see this post).

European equities might be pretty cheap (see this post).

ATPG shares might be extremely cheap currently (see this post).

The biopharma sector is cheap currently (see around half of my comments of the last few months ...).

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#11) On August 25, 2010 at 1:22 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

Vestas and Gamesa shares are currently small positions of my portfolio (see comment #83 here).

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#12) On August 25, 2010 at 1:26 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

Considering the HPQ offer for 3PAR most shares of smaller tech companies that have something that the larger ones badly want might be extremely cheap currently ...

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#13) On August 25, 2010 at 1:34 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

Most equities could be considered pretty cheap currently if the U.S. would just quit producing "continous negative news flow". Why can't they just join the current boom, hehe ...?


from here. Ifo Business Survey August 2010


German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Increases

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#14) On August 25, 2010 at 1:46 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#3,4 current analyst consensus estimates for CRH (in EUR and in German (see here ...)).


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#15) On August 25, 2010 at 1:50 PM, rofgile (99.61) wrote:


 At this rate, our fear-mongering US magazines will soon switch from:

  "Is China taking over the world?"  to

  "Is Germany taking over the world??"


  I wish I knew more about European companies.  The only european corporations that I know of are Vestas, Thyssen-Krupp, Nestle, Santander, Acciona.  I probably know some UK banks.  Other than that, I think I am woefully unimformed about good corporations of the EU world.  



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#16) On August 25, 2010 at 1:58 PM, lorteungen (99.66) wrote:


not to hijack the thread, but can I ask which sites you use for screening stocks and reading financial statements and metrics for european equities? I currently use the data at, but they only have (free) data for 5 years and I'm not crazy about the UI.

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#17) On August 25, 2010 at 2:08 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#16 I almost never use "stock screeners". I usually look up consensus estimates and short summaries of research reports at, you have to register to see them though.

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#18) On August 25, 2010 at 4:40 PM, rofgile (99.61) wrote:

I think I probably will buy another dry shipping company..

There is a very strange trend in the BDI of 6 month cycle in pricing - and this is being seen in the prices of the dry shippers..

Here is my chart I made back in June 22 and posted in this blog of Griffin412 comment 10 :

So, a stock like EGLE might be my purchase.  

Compare EGLE's quarterly revenue/profit to that of PRGN.  PRGN looks like its falling apart!  EGLE looks like it hit a revenue bottom and is on the upswing..

 I'm going to keep thinking for now and try not to rush into buying like I tend to :)  Limit orders are my friend too sometimes to hold back.. 


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#19) On August 25, 2010 at 6:00 PM, rofgile (99.61) wrote:

I didn't want to start a new blog, but I thought these two pieces of news were quite funny.

NYT: Vornado Realty Trust is going to build a new skyscraper that rivals the Empire States Building..


WSJ: REITs rank highest among the highest in drug abuse.


 Put 2+2 together ---->

  Coked-up REIT managers are now building skyscrapers!  (I guess this is why I haven't bought into any REITs in real life..)


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#20) On August 25, 2010 at 6:05 PM, EnigmaDude (51.43) wrote:


I'm seeing lots of bargains out there lately. I just picked up some shares of SFN (took a big hit after the latest jobless claims went up).  Wish I had more cash to add to my IRA!

If you like dividends, take a look at PNNT, MFA, KFN.  There is a nice article that explains why these are good values right now - although you may disagree with the writer's choice of PRGN:

Good luck!

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#21) On August 25, 2010 at 6:13 PM, Otrex (93.45) wrote:

The OP cites some pretty good buys: PRGN, EGLE etc are all fine picks (as is NM and DAC).

SBLK is the best of the bunch though, and paying a great dividend.  I'm surprised it was not mentioned in the same breath.

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#22) On August 25, 2010 at 6:14 PM, topsecret09 (84.21) wrote:

 I am now 45% cash and I see many storm clouds on the horizon.  September and October are not usually good months for equities,and our economy Is struggling mightily. I am a seller on any strength. The market looks to test 9700 shortly,then the all Important 9200 level. Be very careful. A cheap stock can still get cheaper, especially If the bad news just keeps on coming. I think that It will for the forseeable future.....   TS

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#23) On August 26, 2010 at 12:59 AM, mickimaynard (< 20) wrote:

What are you waiting for..? Just go ahead and buy as many shares as you can.

Very Early Signs of Pregnancy


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#24) On August 26, 2010 at 2:24 AM, DarthMaul09 (29.00) wrote:

You might want to consider a sector that you love to hate:  Metals and mining (based on your sector picks).  To avoid your allergy to gold, consider copper:


P/E 17.56

Div/yield 0.37/5.22

EPS 1.61

Key stats and ratios
                                     Q2 (Jun '10)              2009

Net profit margin          26.88%                     25.03%

Operating margin         46.06%                    39.77%

EBITD margin -                                            47.10%

Return on average assets   18.81%            15.80%

Return on average equity    32.57%            25.61%




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#25) On August 26, 2010 at 2:50 AM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

Rof- I'm with TS. "A cheap stock can still get cheaper". Here are some storm clouds that I expect to be as "Rosy" as the recent home sales report-
-  MBA Q2 National delinquency Survey
-  FDIC Q2  Banking report
-  Second GDP Q2 est. I think 2.4% goes to ~1.5%.
Next week-
-   ISM manufacturing index will be released. Continued decline.
-  August employment nos.
Could be an even better entry point in a couple weeks. I'm watching ECA as a natty g play. One of many juicy 52 wk lows

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#26) On August 26, 2010 at 10:59 AM, rofgile (99.61) wrote:

I bought shares this morning..

Reviewing the possibilities, I decided to expand my real life position in EGLE-

I just like how this company's earnings / revenue picture looks compared to other dry shippers such as PRGN.  

What I like about EGLE is that the revenue, net income, and profit margin have all three been increasing over the last three quarters.  That's great to see - if you compare this to PRGN, you see decreasing revenues and profit with PRGN.  I think this is largely a function of better management and different ship classes.  EGLE is different from most of the dry shippers in that its almost entirely made of the smaller HANDYMAX ships.  EGLE is also operating cash flow positive for over a year now, which also is nice to see.  

Two other factors pushed me to this stock over others (My second highest candidate was Vestas - just because I love owning wind power, and I thought a bit about Genco shipping).

It looks to me like EGLE is poised to be having earnings of nearly $0.80-1.00 a year at this time.  That would correspond to a share price of at least $8.00/share from todays $4.50 a share at a conservative PE of 8.

Additionally many news outlets have been reporting that the wheat embargo of Russia has likely positive effects on small shippers like EGLE.  So, there is a nice catalyst.


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#27) On August 26, 2010 at 2:55 PM, starbucks4ever (64.43) wrote:

MTL still leaves me scratching my head. Andrey has grabbed his 7- or 8-bagger, making me look foolish with my pessimism. And yet I still have the feeling that I was right on MTL and he was wrong, even though the market seems to disagree. And you know what? I still mean to buy it at $2.50 a share, and I firmly believe the chance will present itself.

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#28) On August 26, 2010 at 7:01 PM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

I rec for you, but pleas hedge for a few days, If you have time read my tongue in cheek blog "Gota Crash to Rally for the Elections. It may help you make even more money.

Thanks for you blog, dpdoor

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#29) On August 26, 2010 at 9:04 PM, topsecret09 (84.21) wrote:

#22) On August 25, 2010 at 6:14 PM, topsecret09 (70.03) wrote: I am now 45% cash and I see many storm clouds on the horizon.  September and October are not usually good months for equities,and our economy Is struggling mightily. I am a seller on any strength. The market looks to test 9700 shortly,then the all Important 9200 level. Be very careful. A cheap stock can still get cheaper, especially If the bad news just keeps on coming. I think that It will for the forseeable future.....   TS          Wall Street shares tumble on fears of new bleak data    NEW YORK—US stocks tumbled Thursday, with the Dow index closing below the sensitive 10,000 level for the first time in nearly two months, as traders braced for a sharp revision of US economic growth.   

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#30) On August 26, 2010 at 9:33 PM, rockbox64 (21.89) wrote:

INTC (with a %3.4 div!) is gonna start screaming soon.  Are these IRA picks????  OK.  Owens Corning, Illinois Tool Works, and, I can't believe I am saying this....Cisco.  Medco.  

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#31) On August 26, 2010 at 9:55 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

AIXA:GR (AIXG) might also be pretty cheap. Consensus 2011 eps is currently around 1.92 EUR per share, AIXA:GR closed Xetra trading on August 26, 2010 at 19.665 EUR. Consensus net cash for 2011 (year end (?)) is around 0.49 billion EUR, market capitalisation is around 1.99 billion EUR. Also see this post.

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#32) On August 26, 2010 at 10:05 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

a pitch by ultralong from last year.


Pitch by: ultralong 10/12/09 1:51 AM

Ladies and gentlmen, we have lift off of the space shuttle stupidia! I'm really not going to say much here other than...WHAT????!!!! Seriously... c'mon... $3 to $30.... seriously? 53 times 2010 earnings with revenue growth down in 2009... seriously? Straight major down days...seriously? Will some please push this over the cliff or do I have to huff and puff and do it myself...



I think the "53 times 2010 earnings" was not consensus at the time that post was written. Now we have something like "8 times 2011 earnings" for the enterprise value ...

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#33) On August 26, 2010 at 10:41 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#31,32 analysts on Aixtron.

The average eps estimate is currently at around 1.76 EUR for 2010 and 1.92 EUR for 2011.

08/02/10 Independent Research, still "buy", 37.00 EUR -> 33.00 EUR.
08/02/10 Close Brothers Seydler, still "buy", eps10 1.77 EUR, still 35.00 EUR.
08/02/10 UniCredit, still "buy", eps10 1.57 EUR -> 1.75 EUR, eps11 1.71 still 2.08 EUR, 25.00 EUR -> 27.50 EUR.
07/30/10 UBS, still "buy", eps10 1.54 EUR -> 1.78 EUR, eps11 1.92 EUR -> 2.08 EUR, 32.00 EUR -> 31.00 EUR.
07/30/10 AC Research, still "buy", P/E2010e around 14.
07/28/10 Banc of America - Merrill Lynch Research, "buy", 32.00 EUR.
07/26/10 LB Baden-Württemberg, "buy", 26.00 -> 32.00 EUR.
07/13/10 Credit Suisse, still "neutral", still 26.00 EUR.
07/12/10 Goldman Sachs, still "neutral", 31.00 EUR -> 29.00 EUR.
07/08/10 Sterne Agee, "buy", 34.00 EUR.
06/30/10 Merriman Curhan Ford, still "neutral", eps10 1.50 EUR -> 1.63 EUR.
05/27/10 Commerzbank, "reduce" -> "hold", 23.00 EUR -> 21.00 EUR.
05/26/10 equinet, "accumulate" -> "buy", still 28.50 EUR.
05/25/10  J.P. Morgan Cazenove, "overweight" -> "neutral", 30.00 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.
05/04/10 HSBC, still "overweight", still 34.00 EUR.
05/03/10 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 36.00 EUR -> 39.00 EUR.
05/03/10 AC Research, "accumulate" -> "buy".
05/03/10 Independent Research, still "buy", 34.00 EUR -> 37.00 EUR.
05/03/10 UniCredit, "buy" -> "hold", eps10 1.21 EUR -> 1.57 EUR, eps11 1.71 EUR -> 1.78 EUR, 30.00 EUR -> 25.00 EUR.
04/30/10 UBS, still "buy", 31.00 EUR -> 32.00 EUR.
04/30/10 Canaccord Adams, "buy" -> "hold", 40.00 USD -> 26.00 USD.
04/29/10 Close Brothers Seydler, still "buy", still 35.00 EUR.
04/29/10 Hamburger Sparkasse, still "buy".
04/22/10 HSBC, still "overweight", 31.00 EUR -> 34.00 EUR.
04/22/10 Close Brothers Seydler, still "buy", eps10 1.20 EUR, eps11 1.87 EUR.
04/22/10 AC Research, still "accumulate".
04/21/10 Goldman Sachs, still "neutral", eps10 0.95 EUR -> 1.37 EUR, eps11 1.25 EUR -> 1.55 EUR.
04/12/10 J.P. Morgan Cazenove, still "overweight", still 30.00 EUR.
04/07/10 Independent Research, still "buy", 31.00 EUR -> 34.00 EUR.
04/01/10 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", still 36.00 EUR.
04/01/10 UBS, "buy", 31.00 EUR.
03/17/10 Piper Jaffray, still "underweight", 18.00 EUR -> 21.00 EUR.
03/17/10 UniCredit, still "buy", eps10 0.78 EUR -> 1.21 EUR, eps11 0.99 EUR -> 1.71 EUR, 25.00 EUR -> 30.00 EUR.
03/17/10 Credit Suisse, still "neutral", eps10 1.14 EUR -> 1.47 EUR, eps11 0.98 EUR -> 1.12 EUR.
03/15/10 WestLB, "add" -> "buy", 25.50 EUR -> 33.40 EUR.
03/12/10 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 30.00 EUR -> 36.00 EUR.
03/12/10 Cheuvreux, still "outperform", 32.00 EUR -> 39.00 EUR.
03/12/10 J.P. Morgan, still "overweight", 25.00 EUR -> 30.00 EUR.
03/11/10 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 20.00 EUR -> 23.00 EUR.
03/11/10 Independent Research, still "buy", eps10 0.66 EUR -> 1.11 EUR, eps11 0.80 EUR -> 1.31 EUR, 28.50 EUR ->31.00 EUR.
03/10/10 Hamburger Sparkasse, still "buy", "will raise target by 15%".
03/09/10 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 28.00 EUR -> 30.00 EUR.
03/04/10 UniCredit, still "buy", still 25.00 EUR.
03/03/10 WestLB, still "add", eps10 0.35 EUR -> 0.43 EUR, eps11 0.58 EUR -> 0.63 EUR, eps12 0.78 EUR -> 0.85 EUR, 28.50 EUR ->31.00 EUR.24.00 EUR -> 25.50 EUR.
02/22/10 Credit Suisse, still "neutral", 18.00 EUR -> 23.00 EUR.
02/09/10 Close Brothers Seydler, "hold" -> "buy", eps10 0.40 EUR -> 0.75 EUR, eps11 0.49 EUR -> 0.93 EUR, 20.00 EUR -> 26.00 EUR,
02/08/10 HSBC, initiates with "overweight", 28.00 EUR, "no debt", "strong cash flow".
02/05/10 Lazard Capital initiates with "buy", 65.00 USD.
02/04/10 Merriman Curhan Ford, "buy" -> "neutral", eps09 0.37 EUR -> 0.46 EUR, eps10 0.85 EUR -> 1.05 EUR.
02/04/10 LB Baden-Württemberg, still "sell", still 18.00 EUR.
02/04/10 Independent Research, "hold" -> "buy", eps10 0.48 EUR -> 0.66 EUR, eps11 0.55 EUR -> 0.80 EUR, 26.00 EUR -> 28.50 EUR.
02/04/10 Hamburger Sparkasse, "still buy".
02/03/10 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 19.00 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.
02/03/10 equinet, still "buy".
01/13/10 Goldman Sachs, still "neutral", still 25.00 EUR.
01/11/10 J.P. Morgan, still "overweight", still 25.00 EUR.
12/22/09 AC Research, still "accumulate".
12/14/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", still 28.00 EUR.
11/11/09 WestLB, "buy" -> "add", 24.30 -> 24.00.10/30/09 WGZ Bank, still "buy", eps09e 0.24 EUR -> 0.36 EUR, eps10 0.30 EUR -> 0.48 EUR.
10/30/09 Exane BNP Paribas, "neutral" -> "outperform", 12.30 EUR -> 27.00.
10/30/09 Independent Research, still "buy", eps09e 0.24 EUR -> 0.36 EUR, eps10 0.30 EUR -> 0.48 EUR, 24.00 EUR.
10/30/09 equinet, "accumulate" -> "buy", 25.00 EUR -> 24.00 EUR.
10/30/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 25.00 EUR.
10/29/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "sell" -> "hold", eps09e 0.22 EUR -> 0.38 EUR, eps10 0.30 EUR -> 0.40 EUR, 9.90 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.
10/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "buy".
10/29/09 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 18.40 EUR.
10/29/09 UniCredit, "hold" -> "buy", eps10 0.53 EUR -> 0.72 EUR, eps11 0.70 EUR -> 0.90 EUR, 16.00 EUR -> 23.00 EUR.
10/29/09 SES Research, still "hold", 10.00 EUR -> 17.50 EUR.
10/29/09 equinet AG, still "accumulate", 25.00 EUR.
10/29/09 WestLB, still "buy", 24.30 EUR.
10/13/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 16.50 EUR -> 26.00 EUR.
10/12/09 WestLB, "add" -> "buy", 17.80 EUR -> 24.30 EUR.
10/09/09 Merriman Curhan Ford, still "buy", rev10 355 MEUR -> 420 MEUR, eps10 0.48 EUR -> 0.60 EUR, rev11 450 MEUR, eps11 0.65 EUR.
09/30/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "hold" -> "sell", eps09e 0.22 EUR, still 11.00 EUR.
09/29/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 20.00 EUR -> 25.00 EUR.
09/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "sell".
08/18/09 WGZ Bank, "reduce" -> "accumulate", 11.50 EUR -> 14.00 EUR.
05/07/09 UniCredit, "hold" -> "buy", 4.00 EUR -> 8.00 EUR.


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#34) On August 26, 2010 at 10:54 PM, thunderboltnova (< 20) wrote:

There's a lot of stocks on sale with big dividends so why not choose some of them.  I've been loading up on them since fixed income isn't paying much at the moment. 

Go to msn money and do a stock search with the largest dividends in the S & P 500 to get your feet wet.  Also on here there's a lot of articles on them.  One example I bought was BMO but there's many others. 

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#35) On August 26, 2010 at 11:49 PM, rofgile (99.61) wrote:


 I'm just not that into dividend stocks.  I see too many companies that I think are grossly mispriced to want to invest for dividends at this point.  I'd rather look for mispriced equities right now.


 I was going to try to read AIXG's annual report, but its all in German.  I've found the google translator for German quite funny as well - it doesn't seem to do the differences in grammar well. 

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#36) On August 27, 2010 at 12:11 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#35 The reports are here.

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#37) On August 27, 2010 at 12:13 AM, thunderboltnova (< 20) wrote:

I don't like single digit stocks since it's like dumpster diving... there's plenty of low hanging fruit around to choose from instead.  Take MTW for example, the insiders dumped it but they aren't buying.  My philosophy is if a stock is really cheap, insiders should put their money where their mouth is.  Ronald Burkle a billionaire thought BKS was cheap at $20 and poured 110 million dollars into it... he got pretty beat up and now is trying to take the company over.  So sometimes stocks are cheap for a reason. 

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#38) On August 27, 2010 at 12:17 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

AIXA:GR in Berlin trading.



AIXA:GR in Xetra trading.


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#39) On August 27, 2010 at 12:23 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#38 The chartists will of course tell you about some "head and shoulders" formation in the upper chart. Or show you some "wave count" and tell you that the chart looks "really ugly". Or some other nonsense, hehe ...

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#40) On August 27, 2010 at 12:32 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

It is probably best to buy some basket of "led stocks" if you like AIXG.

some stocks for the basket.

009150:KS, 011070:KS, AIXA:GR (AIXG), CREE, PANL, RBCN, VECO.



some light/LED/OLED/LCD/display stocks.

Aixtron (AIXA.DE, AIXG)

Cree (CREE)

Epistar (2448.TW, 2448:TT)

Everlight Electronics (2393.TW, 2393:TT)

Huga Optotech (8199.TWO, 8199:TT)

Kumho Electric (001210.KS, 001210:KS)

LG Display (034220.KS, LPL)

LG Innotek (011070.KS)


Philips Electronics (PHIA.AS, PHG)

Rubicon Technology (RBCN)

Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS, 009150:KS)

Samsung Electronics (005930.KS, 005930:KS)

Seoul Semiconductor (046890.KQ, 046890:KS)

Sumitomo Chemical (4005.T, 4005:JP)

Universal Display (PANL)

Veeco Instruments (VECO)


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#41) On August 27, 2010 at 12:51 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

BION:SW is trading at a large discount to NAV currently. And the discount is currently larger than it "usually is". And most of the NAV is in listed securities. See comments #95-97 and 111 here. I think BION:SW is a great way to getting some biopharma exposure in a rather diversified (and "deeply discounted") way.

BB Biotech Corporate presentation August 2010 (pdf)

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#42) On August 27, 2010 at 12:53 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

to getting

of getting

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#43) On August 27, 2010 at 1:29 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

Vokswagen is pretty cheap.

market cap. of the ordinary shares (VOW:GR, VLKAY:US): ≈20.8 billion EUR
market cap. of the preferred shares (VOW3:GR, VLKPY:US): ≈13.4 billion EUR
-> combined market cap.: ≈34.2 billion EUR
2010 (year end (?)) net cash consensus estimate: ≈14.3 billion EUR
-> ev := "market cap. minus net cash 2010 estimate": ≈ 19.9 billion EUR.
revenue 2010 consensus estimate: ≈115.1 billion EUR
revenue 2011 consensus estimate: ≈119.2 billion EUR
ebit2010 consensus estimate: ≈4.5 billion EUR
ebit2011 consensus estimate: ≈5.5 billion EUR
eps2010 consensus estimate: ≈6.00 EUR
eps2010 consensus estimate: ≈7.71 EUR
VOW:GR share price (Xetra close August 26): 70.64 EUR
VOW3:GR share price (Xetra close August 26): 79.21 EUR.

The preferred shares are currently a component of the DAX30 index.

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#44) On August 27, 2010 at 12:50 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

eps2010 consensus estimate: ≈7.71 EUR

eps2011 consensus estimate: ≈7.71 EUR

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