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gmXmkttiming (27.59)

I've gone all-in



May 07, 2009 – Comments (28)

I've taken the opposite position of every single ETF pick of Ultralong (I may have missed a couple, but I did my best). Ultralong has had an astounding run from new player to top 5 in the last two months, however his time--and his bear market rally--is winding down and may have in fact ended today. By taking the opposite position of each and every one of his picks, I shall score 1000s of points in this profile as the market corrects. I just entered all 103 picks, so they should go active here within the next 20 minutes. Good luck to my fellow bears--things are about to get interesting.

28 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 07, 2009 at 1:29 PM, BigFatBEAR (28.45) wrote:

Time to bust out the popcorn. :)

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#2) On May 07, 2009 at 1:37 PM, portefeuille (98.90) wrote:

well, one of my fellow contenders will lose that race (if they keep those calls alive long enough) ...

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#3) On May 07, 2009 at 1:57 PM, kaskoosek (30.22) wrote:

You've got the balls.

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#4) On May 07, 2009 at 2:07 PM, kfisherprotege (< 20) wrote:

Bold move, gmX.  I for one, hope you're right.  I've been in the "all in" category for a month now, and my CAPS score has suffered because of it.  Perhaps you can retire (or rename) your alter ego's "about to plunge" blog series, replacing it with "has started to plunge" starting today. OTOH, if your series goes to Day 20 or higher, your CAPS score will be hurting ... as will mine.  I don't believe that will happen.

BTW, you have an interesting way to rack up the points: green thumb every Short/Ultrashort ETF on the planet, and red thumb all the longs.  Besides, ProShares, Rydex, and Direxion, are there others out there?  I've always maintained that one can make a *lot* of money by effectively swing trading these funds.  I'm just having a little trouble with the "effectively" part.


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#5) On May 07, 2009 at 3:14 PM, kdakota630 (29.06) wrote:

Good luck.

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#6) On May 07, 2009 at 3:44 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

Kfisher... I believe Ultralong got just about the whole list. I literally went through his active picks and just did the opposite but the list is pretty through. I don't know of any ultra ETFs which aren't included in it. There should be plenty (100+) for you to choose to trade with though.

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#7) On May 07, 2009 at 4:36 PM, automaticaev (< 20) wrote:

big risk

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#8) On May 07, 2009 at 6:51 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:

GMX, as a long-term buy and hold investor, my instinct is generally stay away from channel play unless the channel gets wide enough... and here I have to agree with you 100%. The channel is wide enough... this rift between reality and rally... that I not only condone the move you've made, but I am strangely tempted to toss my "Yes" charm out the window and follow your lead on this one. As I said the other day, when you and I are seeing something the same way, I think that's actually very telling. :)

I won't do it, because I stated years ago that I would never short anything in CAPS since I never short in real life. Had I not pledged same, I would be seriously considering this move for CAPS. :)

I am equally convinced of excess speculation in equities presently as I was at Dow 14,000. We've just created the next round of forced liquidation ... a deleveraging event. This is what Fools need to protect themselves from, IMO.

GMX, I predict you will gain the number one spot with this strategy and hold it for quite some time. I think that if you paired your shorts with gold and silver longs, your score would reach enormous heights by 2010. I'm sure Ultralong knows it's nothing personal, but just a brilliant strategy for the game.

Congratulations in advance,


[P.S. sailboat went in the water today!  :)]


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#9) On May 07, 2009 at 7:37 PM, RainierMan (64.50) wrote:

Rec just for the audacity of it!

I hope it's awesome.

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#10) On May 07, 2009 at 8:07 PM, cbwang888 (25.61) wrote:

DOW is not yet 9000. Relief rally is brewing now after hours. You may want to wait one more week ...


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#11) On May 07, 2009 at 9:03 PM, givmeabreak (28.49) wrote:

The market will be up tomorrow, and again next week, and the week after that. It is all b/c of the GMX contrarian indicator effect.

This guy, at least when I read his stuff, calls the exact opposite when talking about short term trends. Do not take this personal gmx, it must just be my timing with reading your post over the last 2 months or so. You've made me a few nice chunks since march.

Especially on the comments on your boy GV's blogs.

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#12) On May 07, 2009 at 9:21 PM, ChrisGraley (28.61) wrote:

I've been working on the same thing the last 2 days, but not to the same extent as you are. I've also loaded up on precious metals. (mostly silver) This could kill me because I'm doing it with my main account! I timed and rode the March 9th rally pretty well, so I'm hoping that I hit paydirt a second time. The next 5-7 days are gonna be either all glory or all pain.

It's been kind of hard because I had to close out of a ton of green thumbed picks (I'm still working on it) without messing my score up too much. I originally thought we would have a 6 month bear rally until Commercial real estate started having an effect in October, but then we started having a "Bizarro Rally".

I'm sorry, but if I posted that I poured gasoline all over myself and set myself on fire, this market would be trading my stock 30% higher with the explanation that ashes make good fertilizer.

LOL, I hope your right GMX because I'm either sharing your glory or your pain!

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#13) On May 07, 2009 at 9:30 PM, SideShowMel0329 (32.27) wrote:

You will fail miserably. Trying to market time in the middle of a convincing rally by going all in? We're barely in the green YTD, what makes you think we shouldn't see the S&P at 4 digits again?

Most companies are turning their debt situations around, and as the banks settle down and get their act together, corporations are able to refinance debt, take out new loans, and start moving up again in the short term.

Now in the long term (as in, over the next year or so), we still will probably see debt issues, but for the short term I think we're ready for smooth sailing.

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#14) On May 07, 2009 at 9:42 PM, SuperPicks (28.47) wrote:

Best of luck & hope your right (so does my RL portfolio...kinda).  But I'm still on the sidelines until I see either VIX at 30 at any point or until S&P starts ranging at 950/1000, thats when SuperPicks will become 'ultrashort'.  Otherwise, the contrarian in me says May will be another up month for the markets.

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#15) On May 08, 2009 at 9:40 AM, dudemonkey (53.55) wrote:

When you say "all-in" are you talking about consequence free CAPS picks or are you talking about real money?


I don't doubt your analysis, I'm just wondering what your level of commitment is to it.

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#16) On May 08, 2009 at 10:07 AM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

I'm about ~40% in on the short side with my real money, and long only a tiny bit (mostly NXG in fact of all things) of stuff.

Thanks for the kind words Sinch. I'm actually starting to doubt whether we'll see $500/oz gold ever again. I'm thinking gold/silver will just rise more slowly than the extremely undervalued commodities such as Nat Gas. I need to ponder things more fully, but I may issue a blog officially changing my position after finals end and I have more time to study the issue fully.

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#17) On May 08, 2009 at 9:37 PM, ChrisGraley (28.61) wrote:

A lot of pain for me today! My member rating dropped 10 points. My accuracy dropped 10%. My ranking went from around 650 to around 7300. But strangely, the more that I look at it, the more I think it's not that bad! What killed me was the accuracy drop, but since about half of the picks didn't hit until market open today, and the market opened higher, most of my losing picks were only down a few points. My score only went down 298.11 points and my averge pick score went from about 9 to about 7. For the amount of leverage involved and the market reaction, I think I turned out OK.

In the Ultra ETF's, just about every time you have an up Friday, there is a down Monday, due to profit taking. These are not things that people want to stay in for too long. I actually think that even if the market stays flat, I might wind up close to where I was on Monday. I'm still certain that the market will drop and drop soon, and when it does, my accuracy will go up to around 75%. I never would have done this with real money, and was sweating bullets when I saw that futures were pointing to higher open, but I feel that I'm sitting pretty when the world comes to it's senses.

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#18) On May 08, 2009 at 10:04 PM, awallejr (28.16) wrote:

Gold, it is still not too late to jump in on the energy run.  Integrated Oil's option play (July calls for example) is a low capital way to play it (just sell them by end June).  I've been playing off BP, it's yield at least gives me security for accumulating and holding the common.  I've been playing its calls too.  Started with the July 35s, selling them and rolling the profits up (40s, now went into 45s). Stock should run 50-60 by end rally I think.  Assuming I am right, there is still plenty to be made off the options.

I still love writing the C puts (June $4).  Premium is dropping but any chance you can accumulate that stock near $3 is still worth it way down the road.  Odds are you won't get called to buy, but then that premium is in your pocket and you can rinse/repeat the play subsequent months.  And should C fall to $3, just buy it outright and keep accumulating. You have that youth on your side and you literally have an opportunity of a lifetime.  Alot of focus on BAC but I think C is the real longterm sleeper because of its international exposure, and it is still darn cheap.


Just my 2 cents and what I am suggesting I have been doing in real life.

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#19) On May 11, 2009 at 6:56 PM, ChrisGraley (28.61) wrote:

Looking a lot better today GMX! I think we both might get a big boost tomorrow as well!

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#20) On May 12, 2009 at 4:41 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.39) wrote:

Ha.... Im flattered. I just came across this thread and nearly died laughing. I may be the uber-bull but my real money is on FAZ right now which i've been riding since late last week. My CAPS strategy and my real money will take diverging paths sometimes (mainly because closing 119 picks is a pain in the butt and will take a long time). The way I figure it, the chances of us hitting the lows we saw in March are slim so it'd be silly for me to close any of those picks, especially with a 94% accuracy. So for now let the battle of good v. evil rage on! =)

 And yes... researching those etf's took a HELL of a long time!


PS... i still expect my strategy to take me to 1st place before the year is over

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#21) On May 12, 2009 at 4:47 AM, automaticaev (< 20) wrote:

wtf faz is going to hardcore tank...

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#22) On May 12, 2009 at 4:50 AM, automaticaev (< 20) wrote:

why not wait till faz is worthless then buy it?

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#23) On May 12, 2009 at 4:53 AM, automaticaev (< 20) wrote:

seriously wtf are you thinking buy and hold faz???

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#24) On May 12, 2009 at 4:57 AM, automaticaev (< 20) wrote:

you have no idea what u are doing?

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#25) On May 12, 2009 at 6:24 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


Cool... good luck with finals, man!

Be sure to link back to our prior debates on the matter and dole out props as necessary. :P

May 2008

August 2008

September 2008

December 2008

But not all your gold calls were wrong: You called the $700 bottom here. :)

In my opinion, gold will not go below $800 again until well, well, well beyond $2,000. At this point i would not be at all surprised to see $900 hold as well. I have seen too much manipulation to claim any ability to predict the timing (as I mistakenly did here), but I know where the dollar is headed and I know what this mountain of derivatives and incomprehensible debt will do to gold.

I look forward to the post on your updated gold and silver outlook.

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#26) On May 12, 2009 at 7:10 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

My May and August calls were alright too. In May in particular, I was bashing SLV just before it fell 50% in the upcoming summer. Where I went wrong was not realizing the tide had changed in the fall when the government started acting up. The situation had changed but my analysis didn't regretfully.

I'm not convinced your claim that we won't see $800 or lower again is accurate, but I'm not sure we'll see $500 again. My new target will be somewhere in the middle I think.

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#27) On May 20, 2009 at 6:00 PM, bradford86 (99.80) wrote:

I sided with ultralong. About a month ago.

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#28) On May 20, 2009 at 6:06 PM, pacificwestcargo (< 20) wrote:

Siri is expected to to triple current stock price with the iphone application and then after sell off push to maintain the remaining
2/3 of market cap.This equates to $1.+ then decline to .80 per share.
Company is targeting for $2.00 per share mrkt cap end 4th qtr.

Credible intel,recommendation strong buy & hold til release and then sell and reconfigure holdings.

nothing more to say today except I am profitable everyday...can i get a show of hands please? point exactly!

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