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dudemonkey (49.73)

I've gone nearly ALL IN intelligent investing!!!

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August 04, 2009 – Comments (21)

Get ready for some exciting news, folks.  We've gone ALL IN buying great companies at less than their intrinsic value!  We looked at the Elliot waves, the Alvin waves, the Simon waves, and the Theodore waves, and they all say the same thing ... if we see an undervalued stock in a company that we really like then we should probably buy it.  We have aggressively entered such explosive industries as light bulbs, chicken wire, comic books, and even next-gen ultra-tech toilet paper.

We listed to the bulls talk about secular bull markets, stimulus packages, and historical averages.  We listened to the bears talk about P/E ratios of 500 stocks, falling tax revenue, and inflation.  We looked at the charts, the resistances, and the VIX.  After carefully laying out the arguments on all sides, we said "That's too hard.  We should buy the best companies when they're trading at a discount to their intrinsic value and hold them until we are permanently sipping drinks on the beaches of Natal." Yes, we realize the risks involved with drinking in the hot, hot sun, but we're risk takers!

Hold on, Fools, for the crazy ride ahead.  Follow the journeys of an intelligent investor as he sits around and watches BBC documentaries about penguins when the market opens.  Track his progress as he furiously tries to decide between a long nap and a really long nap as the market turns perilous at mid-day.  Share in the joy as he orders pizza and hot wings during the market close.  And feel the hair rise on the back of your neck as he cleans spam out of his email inbox during after-hours futures trading.

I'm ALL IN!!!! PREPARE!!!!

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 04, 2009 at 10:31 AM, dudemonkey (49.73) wrote:

FYI, I'm not making fun of anyone here.  Just trying to lighten the discussion up a bit.  I hope you all see the humor that way and not as criticism of the many excellent and well-thought out viewpoints on CAPS!

All Glory To The Hypnotoad!

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#2) On August 04, 2009 at 10:39 AM, toopersent (53.76) wrote:

+1 ZING!

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#3) On August 04, 2009 at 10:45 AM, outoffocus (24.13) wrote:

I thought it was funny.

I agree with you except you forgot one fundamental philosophy.  What about selling companies that a fundamentally overvalued?

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#4) On August 04, 2009 at 10:49 AM, schmidty32 (< 20) wrote:

What stocks did you buy?

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#5) On August 04, 2009 at 10:55 AM, JibJabs (93.14) wrote:

Hilarious

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#6) On August 04, 2009 at 10:55 AM, anticitrade (99.00) wrote:

But aren't you forgetting something?  Forget your wallet, what will a deliberate wise investing strategy do for your ego?  Don't you realize that without making a wild unsupportable claims about short term moves in the market that you miss the opportunity to read posts (written by yourself of course) about how awesome and correct you are?  I can't imagine you will be very happy on that beach soaking in the sun without the relaxing excercise of personally justifying all the reasons you remain right despite all evidence to the contrary.

Answer me this: If you refuse to use internet blogs as the source of your self esteem and worth, where will you turn? 

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#7) On August 04, 2009 at 11:19 AM, synergize (29.20) wrote:

i've been tracking analyst upgrade/downgrade picks. i rate their performance for the past 60 days based on 2/3 profit/loss(P/L) and 1/3 accuracy. a minum of 9 picks are required. i understand the market is up for the past weeks/months so i guess anybody that pick randomly(30-60 days ago) can still get a decent return by this time.

as of today, here are the top 5:

1. Barclays Capital (24.42% P/L, 94.12% Accuracy)
2. KeyBanc Capital Mkts (19.96% P/L, 93.75% Accuracy) 
3. Argus (14.37% P/L, 100.00% Accuracy) 
4. Wedbush Morgan (13.84% P/L, 100.00% Accuracy) 
5. Credit Suisse (15.72% P/L, 94.29% Accuracy)

Source: synergeticstocks.com

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#8) On August 04, 2009 at 11:23 AM, rofgile (99.57) wrote:

Cheers!

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#9) On August 04, 2009 at 11:27 AM, dudemonkey (49.73) wrote:

What about selling companies that a fundamentally overvalued?

Yes, I do this.  The intrinsic value becomes a "sell point" for some of my stocks, the very volatile ones like emerging market consumer-facing companies.  Many companies, though, I'm sticking with them for the long-haul and I'm not rushing to sell even if they are overvalued.  I've watched the market timers on CAPS and they are much, much better than me and even they get it wrong sometimes.  If their accuracy is only around 60% or so, mine is going to be worse.  I'm not interested in playing a game where the odds are stacked so heavily against me.

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#10) On August 04, 2009 at 11:28 AM, dudemonkey (49.73) wrote:

Answer me this: If you refuse to use internet blogs as the source of your self esteem and worth, where will you turn? 

I suppose I will have to settle for living life the way I want to, making steady progress towards my goals, and not letting the market dictate to me.  Jeez, I suck when you look at it that way :)

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#11) On August 04, 2009 at 11:33 AM, outoffocus (24.13) wrote:

Its a shame too. I was really starting to follow those Theodore waves.

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#12) On August 04, 2009 at 11:41 AM, cthomas1017 (98.93) wrote:

But you missed the overall best indicators of future performance:
 - The potato chip wave for weighting growth.
 - The shock wave for anticipating unanticipated events.
 - The bye-bye wave for knowing when to exit the market completely.

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#13) On August 04, 2009 at 12:16 PM, chk999 (99.96) wrote:

Have you thought about trading Fritos, Dr. Pepper and hot dogs at the beach?

As in, I'll trade you a hot dog for some of the Fritos?

Great post!

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#14) On August 04, 2009 at 12:48 PM, DarkToast (32.00) wrote:

Very funny post. +1

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#15) On August 04, 2009 at 12:55 PM, portefeuille (98.35) wrote:

great post!

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#16) On August 04, 2009 at 3:27 PM, SeeknDestry (64.25) wrote:

I agree with you. I got GE, BAC and LUV all undervalued. The market will most likely dip again, when this *possible* bubble pops, in which case I might buy a few more shares. Otherwise I'll just ride it out and see where it takes me.

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#17) On August 04, 2009 at 4:38 PM, EnigmaDude (51.25) wrote:

Refreshing, and delightful!

Can't wait for the movie premier!

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#18) On August 04, 2009 at 5:53 PM, goldminingXpert (28.87) wrote:

Haha. If only--buying and holding is much easier than trading. Virtually eveything is overvalued, however. Even the companies I like are (mostly) too pricy to purchase.

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#19) On August 04, 2009 at 7:07 PM, dudemonkey (49.73) wrote:

Haha. If only--buying and holding is much easier than trading. Virtually eveything is overvalued, however. Even the companies I like are (mostly) too pricy to purchase.

Totally agree.  I haven't bought any stocks since April.  My guess is that your assessment of the market direction is correct, and I'll be happy to wait until  prices are a little more reasonable before deploying more cash.

I definitely don't have the stomach for trading or chart reading the way some of you do.  I realize I'm going to miss out on some easy money by skipping obvious short-term movements, and I built my strategy such that it works towards my long term goals.

I'm glad to see you get the joke and realize it's not, in any way, at your expense.

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#20) On August 05, 2009 at 2:22 AM, awallejr (56.32) wrote:

Bravo.  Rec for the cleverness.  Made me laugh after having read an Alstry blog.

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#21) On August 05, 2009 at 4:29 AM, Seano67 (24.42) wrote:

I laughed. I cried. I shivered. I screamed. I fell in love! This was the feel-good hit of the summer!

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