IF I had a 99.99 rating this blog would have 32 Recs by now....
March 10, 2009
– Comments (41)
I blog to put ideas down, thoughts I think might bring some thought to others. My Caps picks suffer because:
1. I'm too bullish.
2. I'm too bull headed.
I really believed, (or wanted to believe) that Obama's Stimulus Plan would hold the tide, although I only expected it to hold until reality set in that it wasn't a cure-all. The market caught onto that one several weeks before I expected them to. Gaither's fumbling caught me off guard with some financial picks still open. I never know when to quit when I'm behind.
My CAPS picks, however, are mostly just to help me keep track of what I've looked at and my opinions on the stocks. When I lose 50% on a buy recommendation then the negative score is there to encourage me to reevaluate it from time to time. If I thought it was a buy at a much higher price is it a buy now? What have I learned from the call? Well insanity reigns in government and the market, so sometimes there isn't much to learn except Mr. Market doesn't care about Fundamentals or Technical Analysis right now. It cares very little for the government and what they do or say, other than to revolt against it. The "Market" still has some respect for Buffett, (hence the WFC run-up today).
I'm learning how to be a better bear, especially with some sectors (retail, housing, most banks). I still think Agriculture is a good buy. It almost fits Abitare's criteria of low P/E and 3% plus dividends. I guess I'm still bullish about a few things, especially agriculture, since bulls like healthy cows and since we bulls can't make enough fertilizer on our own for all those fields. Barley is also a great crop for bulls. I think there are bargains around and while I'm fearful the S&P is headed for 630 or so, I'm hopeful I'm wrong.
In the meantime, I'll keep reading up here. This is a great community. I just wish we would get more great pearls of wisdom from some of the top Caps here than the bickering, boasting, and fertilizer that gets spread. I guess we're all a little stressed about the market, our jobs, our families. A little levity would go a long way.
I'm thinking about starting two more identities, but they wouldn't be zombies for rec or shilling. I'm thinking 50 really bullheaded calls with ULTRA ETF's for one and 50 really bear in a cave picks for the other with Ultra ETF's. One of the two could be a perfect score with thousands of points in the next two months, but really that would be a lot of work for no real purpose. The only thing I could learn from them would be a visual of which way the market went. On my current, much less than perfect TSIF account I can learn a great deal, which is really what I'm here for.
No, I think I'll just stay me. Boring, optimistic, bull-headed; lowly Caps score that might pull 5-7 recs on a blog if I time it for when there are no active blogs from the all-stars. But that's okay with me. Obscurity means that there is little chance of anyone being jealous of me or questioning my motives, followers, or identity and I can just keep a low profile, chase some cows, harvest some barley and wait for Mr. Market to do his thing, sane or not.
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