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IF I had a 99.99 rating this blog would have 32 Recs by now....

Recs

63

March 10, 2009 – Comments (41)

I blog to put ideas down, thoughts I think might bring some thought to others.  My Caps picks suffer because:

1. I'm too bullish.

2. I'm too bull headed. 

I really believed, (or wanted to believe) that Obama's Stimulus Plan would hold the tide, although I only expected it to hold until reality set in that it wasn't a cure-all. The market caught onto that one several weeks before I expected them to.  Gaither's fumbling caught me off guard with some financial picks still open.  I never know when to quit when I'm behind.

My CAPS picks, however, are mostly just to help me keep track of what I've looked at and my opinions on the stocks. When I lose 50% on a buy recommendation then the negative score is there to encourage me to reevaluate it from time to time.  If I thought it was a buy at a much higher price is it a buy now?  What have I learned from the call?   Well insanity reigns in government and the market, so sometimes there isn't much to learn except Mr. Market doesn't care about Fundamentals or Technical Analysis right now.  It cares very little for the government and what they do or say, other than to revolt against it.  The "Market" still has some respect for Buffett, (hence the WFC run-up today).

I'm learning how to be a better bear, especially with some sectors (retail, housing, most banks). I still think Agriculture is a good buy. It almost fits Abitare's criteria of low P/E and 3% plus dividends. I guess I'm still bullish about a few things, especially agriculture, since bulls like healthy cows and since we bulls can't make enough fertilizer on our own for all those fields.  Barley is also a great crop for bulls.  I think there are bargains around and while I'm fearful the S&P is headed for 630 or so, I'm hopeful I'm wrong. 

In the meantime, I'll keep reading up here. This is a great community. I just wish we would get more great pearls of wisdom from some of the top Caps here than the bickering, boasting, and fertilizer that gets spread.  I guess we're all a little stressed about the market, our jobs, our families.  A little levity would go a long way. 

I'm thinking about starting two more identities, but they wouldn't be zombies for rec or shilling.  I'm thinking 50 really bullheaded calls with ULTRA ETF's for one and 50 really bear in a cave picks for the other with Ultra ETF's.   One of the two could be a perfect score with thousands of points in the next two months, but really that would be a lot of work for no real purpose.  The only thing I could learn from them would be a visual of which way the market went. On my current, much less than perfect TSIF account I can learn a great deal, which is really what I'm here for.

No, I think I'll just stay me.  Boring, optimistic, bull-headed; lowly Caps score that might pull 5-7 recs on a blog if I time it for when there are no active blogs from the all-stars.   But that's okay with me.   Obscurity means that there is little chance of anyone being jealous of me or questioning my motives, followers, or identity and I can just keep a low profile, chase some cows, harvest some barley and wait for Mr. Market to do his thing, sane or not.

 

 

41 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 10, 2009 at 1:27 AM, PrestonCheek (32.37) wrote:

Good post.

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#2) On March 10, 2009 at 1:35 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Ahhh, one of our nightshift CAPS! IF there were a few more nightshifters I might hit my average of 5-7 Recs before the "A's",  GV, and Mary wake up!   (I do hope Mary got some sleep, she needed and deserves it).  Thanks!

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#3) On March 10, 2009 at 1:52 AM, PrestonCheek (32.37) wrote:

By the way, you can look at my portfolio on some of your study. I red thumbed bear ETF's and green thumbed bull ETF's. Not a very good outcome considering I was over 90 before I started.

I'm starting to learn why people have started new names to reset their scores, I don't see much point in that yet, but who knows one day............never say never.

Thank everything good that I only have two more weeks on nights and then back to days for awhile.

Preston

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#4) On March 10, 2009 at 2:16 AM, milpo (73.13) wrote:

Dear TSIF: 

Great post.

ETF's and inverse ETF's are a great way to churn some change. I have attached a post from my November 2008 blog. Call me crazy TSIF.

Trudging the Road to Happy Destiny

Recs

3 FollowShareReport

November 07, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: EEV , RRZ , RSW

 

 I just had a vision of things to come.  Should we hand a foot ruler to a civil engineer surveying the "road to happy destiny?"

 

 Date           DOW

10\07          14000

11\08           7000

04\09          10500

06\09           7000

10\09           8400

12\09           5100

03\10           6450

10\10           3750

11\10           5950

12\10           3500

04\11           3900

06\11           1900

10\11           3850  & True Recovery Begins

Please tell me that it was just a hallucination.  I should take my medicine daily.

1 Comments – Post Your Own#1) On November 08, 2008 at 8:54 AM, MarketBottom (99.83) wrote:

Milpo,

No, that could be fairly realistic. The size and pace of the commodity fall is unprecedented. The worlds two engines, US and China are in freefall. The longest period of basing in the US equity markets occurred in 70s, at Dow 1000 level, and that could very well be the area of final support. Jim Rogers moved his business and family out of the country several years ago, and recently said, buy a tractor and move to Canada.

Hope for the best while preparing for the worst.

 

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#5) On March 10, 2009 at 4:14 AM, RonChapmanJr (77.61) wrote:

"Hope for the best and prepare for the worst" - that's my recent signature statement!  :)

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#6) On March 10, 2009 at 4:56 AM, chevionUSA (< 20) wrote:

I have supplies for 3 years: Tuna, Rice, and water, and vitamin pills.

The next bubble will be a food price bubble. rice, wheat, corn, meat and so on will be skyrocketed to never seen prices.

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#7) On March 10, 2009 at 5:15 AM, DaretothREdux (41.72) wrote:

Rec #9 from another third shift man!

Seriously though. Good post. You might get 32 recs but I would say more like 20-24 if I had to guess from my blogging experience...

but I agree if ony we had a little levity around here....

alright, alright, I will try and write another blog today. You convinced me ;) maybe...no really if I have time I will.

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#8) On March 10, 2009 at 7:21 AM, outoffocus (23.12) wrote:

Lol TSIF you read my mind.  I was thinking the same thing about my blog post earlier.  Ah welll. I could also start another account and be an all start within days but:

1. I dont have time to manage multiple accounts. 

2. I think I'll learn alot more pulling this current account out of the mud than creating a new account and starting over.  

So far I've recovered over 1200 points in my account over the past couple months and I plan on recovering the final 600 pretty soon.  If that means that  people start respecting me more on this website then so be it.  

Its nice to know that everyone on this site isnt so shallow though.  A few very respectable players (or at least people I feel are respectable) have added me as a favorite. I think that says something about those people and this site as a whole.

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#9) On March 10, 2009 at 7:34 AM, JoeAgresti (< 20) wrote:

im sick of the ETF's, can we just stick to individual companies???

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#10) On March 10, 2009 at 7:35 AM, JoeAgresti (< 20) wrote:

and starting over is for losers, u want a caps bailout huh?

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#11) On March 10, 2009 at 7:39 AM, Xciteddon (68.90) wrote:

I liked your blog also. Although I am not on the night shift just half way around the world. I too think the garden needs a little happiness, sometimes they make me crazy.. I have gone a different way with my picks because I believe that this market will recover...eventually. All my picks are outperforms. I think that I have made some pretty good ones, but time will tell. I wanted to prove that the buy and hold idea is the one that really works. Even in hard and bad times. You can still do very very well. But my score too suffers. I also believe we all want to do well and what good does it really do to pick underperforms if you aren't playing options? Your in this for it to go up!

I hope you will blog again. Thanks for this one :)

D

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#12) On March 10, 2009 at 7:47 AM, TDRH (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, hang in there.   CAPS is for acting on instinct, sometimes our instinct is wrong, but we learn without the pain. 

If you want more rec's just create more accounts and receive your own blog.   No rule against shilling.

Obama's plan is just window dressing.   Correction is necessary unfortunately.    I don't have the vision of Milpo, but the key in my mind is the return to the historical relationship between housing cost and income.   Until this happens, further pain is ahead.

 

You are up to 12 recs, and it is early.

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#13) On March 10, 2009 at 9:45 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I got a very nice smile this morning...is it from all the kind words and encouragement, and great advice here in my most rec'd blog?  Or is it because the DOW is up 120 points in the first 5 minutes and I bought TNA yesterday and GE last week?  Just gotta figure out when to sell the TNA as this can't last.

I do get myself in trouble, but this is a great place to learn!  Shilling wouldn't be any fun and would take too much of my precious time.  REdux decides who gets the rec's around here! 

I thought a few times about starting a new ID.  But then my wife got me a new snow shovel for all the snow around here and I learned about digging out!  I agree with OutofFocus, there is more learning to be done here and as a hobby historian my old picks are history.  Now back to either: 

 1.  Elliott Wave Theory

 2. , Dow Theory

 3  or the Dart board and Barley products....and where did I put that shovel.......

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#14) On March 10, 2009 at 10:07 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Oh no!  The President is on CNN....will the +217 on the DOW hold?  Looks like I'd better work on my stops and be ready to book if needed!

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#15) On March 10, 2009 at 2:44 PM, BenGriffin71 (28.02) wrote:

TSIF:

You Wrote: >>>...I'm thinking 50 really bullheaded calls with ULTRA ETF's for one and 50 really bear in a cave picks for the other with Ultra ETF's.  <<<</p>

You may get the most points in a particular day with this strategy, but I doubt you will get a 'perfect score'

You will have better luck over the long term if you make your bull headed portfolio by shorting the Ultrashorts,rather than using the Ultras.

 

Also, one thing that helps me it to  consider which direction a stock is traveling, at least as much as how far it has gone one way or the other.....

 

    

 

 

.

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#16) On March 10, 2009 at 2:44 PM, russiangambit (29.31) wrote:

I am with you on commodities and agriculture. As for being bullish on anything else, give me 6 months.

I was listening to Disciplined Investor podcast this morning, the guest there scared me with his statistics. I was almost convinced that Armageddon is around the corner. After some thinking I decided that may be 3 months from now.

If we can pull through the next 6 months without Armageddon, I'll be bullish.

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#17) On March 10, 2009 at 3:10 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

WOW,  I am up today, but nowhere near 99.99 and I just got my 32'nd REC!     Thanks for adding to what I knew already.....CAPS is more than just the top few players and their blogs!  Thanks also for the great advice, which is REALLY what CAPS is all about.  And to all my loyals fans out there, my publisher, my Mom, .........

TSIF  The Sky ISN'T (Is) Falling. 

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#18) On March 10, 2009 at 4:03 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

"And to all my loyals fans out there, my publisher, my Mom, ........."

That was hilarious!

TSIF - You know I and my many identities who gave you all these Recs.! :) I am actually the god of Caps not DaretothREdux! You know also that you is me and everything in between. LOL

GoodVibe

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#19) On March 10, 2009 at 4:06 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

I fotgot to add DaretothREdux link. It's fun if you missed it. You know also who is DaretothREdux?

You got it. Me ME ME!

GoodVibe

 

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#20) On March 10, 2009 at 4:28 PM, Alex1963 (28.72) wrote:

Tsif

Great post. A rec from me making 36. You go, dog!

I did try on the humor thing a few weeks ago. Based on recs it flopped. I'll try again here. Some of these nearly had me falling out of my chair laughing :) 

Capitalism Around The World 

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=149079&t=01001315285756543746 

Alex 

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#21) On March 10, 2009 at 4:35 PM, outoffocus (23.12) wrote:

I did try on the humor thing a few weeks ago. Based on recs it flopped.

Nothing against you Alex. Its just that that joke has been posted like 10 times on this website over the past year.

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#22) On March 10, 2009 at 5:06 PM, Mary953 (72.80) wrote:

#38 from me.  At the risk of making an absolute fool (small f) of myself, I want to give you your rec and grab a nap real quick while everything is temporarily quiet.  Great news is that my father-in-law is out of the hospital and will live, although he scared me out of my wits (small w - yep - gettin' punchy)  Also ran type good news is that Mr. Market crept his way back high enough up the slope that I can back out of the picks I made with a few very modest gains.  I probably won't cover the tax costs on them, but at least they aren't losses.  That is enough and I will take it happily. 

We have a minister who likes to drop the occassional (I know, one too many letters, but I don't know which to remove) gem into his message.  From his sermon on Sunday -

 

Fondly,

Mary

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#23) On March 10, 2009 at 5:24 PM, EnigmaDude (88.88) wrote:

I share many of your thoughts and gave you another rec - hopefully your post will be top blog for a day at least (unless alstry's zombie players give his blog too many recs).

I stopped blogging when I realized that CAPS was becoming a popularity contest, and I don't have the time to keep up with the other "top bloggers".  Some of us have real jobs...

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#24) On March 10, 2009 at 5:25 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Wow, Mary, Alex, GoodVibe, and lots more great posters and board supporters.  Alex, I missed your joke the first time up.  Jokes about the Market/Government have a tough audience right now.  Most of us probably wish we still had all of our cows and their milk instead of messing in the "stock" market.

Mary, I am sorry to hear your father-in-law was that close to telling you goodbye.  I helped my Mom cross about 18 months ago.  Our time is short, our love can't bear separation, but I am glad that you have more time.  Use it wisely, I'm certain that you and your husband will in-between your Ellott Wave discussions!   Please do keep your posts going between your much needed rest. I have learned much from your learning!  I will add some prayers for your father's health.

GoodVibe, will you please autograph my novel when I publish it.  "Bull vs. Bear which has a better life?"   The Bull gets to romp in the field with lots of cows but never knows when someone is looking for a nice juicy steak.  The Bear gets to hibernate in the winter, but that diet of berries doesn't sound very appetizing!

 To all my loyal fans.... :)   Great to see the market up today.  I don't have much confidence this will last past Thursday, so I tightened my stops.  Good to have some to tighten!!!!  :)

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#25) On March 10, 2009 at 5:32 PM, ColoCdn (< 20) wrote:

Rec number 40 for you... here's to just being yourself.

And GoodVibe?  Besides you and me, did you know he is really the only other blogger on CAPS, with +60,000 aliases?  Really!  It's true!!  Just ask abitaire... ;-)

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#26) On March 10, 2009 at 5:47 PM, Mary953 (72.80) wrote:

TSIF - You have the most rec'd blog of the DAY !!!  You Rock!!!!  M

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#27) On March 10, 2009 at 5:58 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Welcome Zombies, welcome alter ego's welcome DareTo's many arms....or are they Good Vibes?  :)

 Mary....you're suppose to be taking a NAP!!!  Log off, the market has taken control of your computer!    Try counting cows!  I just listened to the Albert/Costello, it's been years since I've heard the whole thing!    Thanks!  Rest well!

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#28) On March 10, 2009 at 6:36 PM, Mary953 (72.80) wrote:

No nap.  Date with Husband - much better.  =)  =)  =)  Nap Later!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#29) On March 10, 2009 at 8:20 PM, bostoncelitcs (47.37) wrote:












The bottom is coming!  Mr. Madoff could not pull this Ponzi scheme off by himself.  Where are his co-conspirators?  We want all their posessions confiscated too!!

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#30) On March 10, 2009 at 9:22 PM, TheGarcipian (37.33) wrote:

Obscurity means that there is little chance of anyone being jealous of me or questioning my motives, followers, or identity...

Ha! But now you're not obscure any longer, not with 48 recommendations -- nay, make that 49 with mine!  And you now have my jealousy to count in your blessings -- I've written many blogs, each which take time to crank out (and dealing with the nefarious CAPS demons which underlie the publication of these buggers with --gasp!-- pictures and charts and other visual content). Yet, here you sit with almost 50 RECs. Good job!

I just wish we would get more great pearls of wisdom from some of the top Caps here...

As far as pearls of wisdom go, not sure I can help you there, but I do believe we are still heading down, generally. This is definitely not THE bottom, despite what you read in the press or hear on CNBC. I think we'll see a bump up to DJIA 7000 (hopefully to 7200), but it won't last long, maybe 7-10 days total (was today Day #1? Gawd, I sure hope so!). That's not to say we can't make money by playing the swing. I've got some money on bull ETFs right now (e.g., BGU) and am hoping to make a profit (aren't we all?!), but I also know this market is more brutal and more unpredictable than Carrie on prom night. So, I'm prepared to lose some money, and consequently have my stops set wide (contrary to what a lot of other players are saying they have). I'm watching the Slow Stochastics for a rise (that was due last week), and will get out when that oscillator (especially on BGU) hits a top and starts to roll over. As those SlowStochs rise, I'll tighten my stops.

Does that help?

Best Regards,
--Gar

 

 

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#31) On March 10, 2009 at 9:57 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Ahhh, more pearls of wisdom, my plan to post my post at midnight when only the zombies are out, (well  the nightshift, Preston and Dareto and oh, the timezone bandits where Xcited was taking in the midnight mischief), worked perfectly!   Get a few Rec's in the middle of the night, catch GV sleeping in, and Abitare wondering where the Zombies are hiding and how many are after him, and zoom, up to the top with lots of advice from the Pro's!  :)

Thanks Gar, I set the stops too close today on my best rally monkey, TNA, that I got yesterday...just as you said...I'll learn. I've got my stops looser on GE, I don't mind keeping it.  I thought the rise was due last Thursday/Friday as well and made a few caps plays.  When you sink as low as I did, a gut check doesn't hurt.

Thanks!  

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#32) On March 10, 2009 at 9:59 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Mary, A date with your husband?  Is that how you win your financial disagreements? :)    Wave theory.....hummmmmm!  :)

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#33) On March 11, 2009 at 7:51 AM, Mary953 (72.80) wrote:

TSIF,

;-)  I never win disagreements with my husband on anything.  I think there are 3 problems.  First, He is usually right.  Second, even if he was wrong, I couldn't stand calling him on it.  And mainly, even when he makes me furious, he just grins and gets away with about anything!  Fortunately, he could pretty much copy and paste this and apply it to me.  Which is how you stay very happily married for (now) almost 36 years.

Does anyone know what the futures are doing this morning?

Mary 

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#34) On March 11, 2009 at 8:29 AM, PrestonCheek (32.37) wrote:

Yes Mary they are up a little, they were up a lot but are creeping down. I think this is the wave down of GV's count but don't quote me on that.

TSIF, you did a very good job here, interesting, funny and you didn't insult anybody.

Keep up the good work buddy.

By the way, real professionals would put a link to another blog here to keep the download time down. :)

Preston

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#35) On March 11, 2009 at 8:48 AM, Mary953 (72.80) wrote:

Preston -

How and where do you look to find that information?

 

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#36) On March 11, 2009 at 8:53 AM, Mary953 (72.80) wrote:

Preston -

How and where do you look to find that information?

 

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#37) On March 11, 2009 at 8:54 AM, Mary953 (72.80) wrote:

Is there an echo in here?

 

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#38) On March 11, 2009 at 9:02 AM, PrestonCheek (32.37) wrote:

Mary, I'm watching CNBC, but I'm sure Bloomberg and other financial sites have it as well. CNBC roll it on their screen every few minutes.

NASD fut +16

S&P +9.10

DOW +57

I'm thinking of starting some hedges in my short ETF's, very small positions though. I sold about half of my stocks yesterday into that rally.

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#39) On March 11, 2009 at 9:25 AM, outoffocus (23.12) wrote:

Mary953

How and where do you look to find that information?

Go to www.wsj.com, click on "market data" and you'll get all the financial market information you'll ever need.

Or you can just bookmark this link like I did.

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#40) On March 11, 2009 at 9:29 AM, RootnToot (30.14) wrote:

TSIF,

Two green thumbs up (or red if your shorting) and another rec from me! You have very articulately said what I have been feeling lately. Well done!!

#30 Gar,

"... but I also know this market is more brutal and more unpredictable than Carrie on prom night." Freakishly inciteful analogy, but I guess that is why you are known as THE Garcipian!

Peace

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#41) On March 11, 2009 at 9:56 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Preston, I didn't expect a gathering ground. I'm sure GV will get one going soon!  :)

Mary, I'd tend to bet that you are right more often than your husband and that you only have him trained to think that he is right.   No one wins agruments, I'm sure he knows a good thing when he has one...... (we're 22 and counting).

Dow is 7,000 and counting.   Time to up the stops!  :)

And to think, a few short months ago I was an investor and had lots of time to do other things.....this trading is very tiring!

 

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