irishred1 (< 20)

irishred1's CAPS Blog

If I Were An ETF...

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June 05, 2012 – Comments (5)

composed of my CAPS picks equal weighted, would you short me or go long?

Bonus points for detailed explanations

**Note** I'm currently trading at an all time high (not that it means much)

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 05, 2012 at 3:20 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

Your 2 main sectors are BioTech and Metals ( mostly Silver & Producers)....

Based on my research the first sector is a good pick thru this summer - at least relative S&P500/SPY basis.....

Metals is a counter bounce pick - and my preference here is GDX.

Infact both of these ETFs - are ETFs picked in my CAPS book - in RLP

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#2) On June 05, 2012 at 4:19 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Tough call. Besides the Biotech and Metals most of your checked picks are bull ETF's. IF the markets hiccup due to Greece, Spain, continued unemployment, election sentiment, etc, then you will go down much harder than the S&P. Your metals might go up and your biotech's are more volitile depending on catalysts as they usually decline more when fear is rampant and risk is less favorable.

If the markets adjust upward, the EU does a Eurobond, or unemployment numbers bounce then you'll beat the S&P.

With the Miners, bio, Bull ETF mix, I'd probably leave you alone as I think you're more likely to go sideways. If forced, I'd probably short you you in the short run.

Nothing wrong with your mix. None of us know what the market will do. Sideways is sometimes good! You got a nice entry on some of your picks, especially if we are bottomed and/or if metals bounce back.

(The other varialble is your pick closing. If you managed your +5 to -5 range and had your accuracy a little higher you'd be an all star. (For what that's worth in real life!)

Good luck, I'm hoping we stabilize here or 5% or so less over the next few month at worse and you net positive!

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#3) On June 06, 2012 at 12:35 AM, ikkyu2 (99.51) wrote:

I see some natural resource names, some energy names, a biotech name or two - all small caps - and only one largecap stock I really recognize: BMY, which has been underperforming for the past few years.

I'd short you against the S+P because I think you've got a high beta portfolio here and I think that small cap high beta is going to underperform for a while yet.

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#4) On June 06, 2012 at 8:23 AM, irishred1 (< 20) wrote:

anchak- i wonder how biotech will do short term with the post ASCO sell off, even though there wasn't much of a run up to begin with. Interesting point on going with the gold ETFs

TSIF- your detailed summary makes a lot of sense to me, along with the two scenarios. Sideways better than down any day of the week I guess. My ETFs are checked not because they are high conviction but to separate them from my stock picks. I guess my philosophy is that the portfolio should be mainly composed of low cost high divi paying ETFs along with a few stocks with favorable risk/reward profiles. Everything in my CAPS picks are ideas I would consider buying at the right price. One reason my score is low is that I end picks when my thesis is no longer as positive as I once thought, regardless of points. If a stock goes from having a VERY favorable risk/reward ratio to only a somewhat favorable one, I'm out....not worth my time. As for my biotech picks, I'm thinking I might have a few winners over the next couple years that could light my score up but we'll see. Thanks for the encouragement

ikkyu2- that's just cold man...kidding:D high beta portfolio combined with a Euro disaster is definitely a recipe for pain no doubt

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#5) On June 14, 2012 at 6:10 PM, ikkyu2 (99.51) wrote: