TSIF (99.96)

IF Investing is a Marathon.....Why am I outta breath???

June 20, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: SH , E , EP.DL

Okay, maybe I'm out of breath beacause I'm a couch potato, well not really....a computer potato in my recliner maybe...but the market has driven me to it.

I'm not sure if:

   One has to stay one step ahead of the market to make money.

   Beside the market, but ready to maneuver.

   One step behind the market to pick up the pieces it leaves behind.

I have found that many of my stocks that I got "stopped" out of before I got much more conservative on my stops , have risen back up to new heights leaving me behind.  It's kinda funny, but goes to resistance levels, both high and low that stocks, for the most part,  that bottomed in the early November fall didn't rebottom in the March 9th fall. Will stocks that bottomed in the March 9th fall get a free pass if we fall hard again?

Barring a new "fear" event  I don't expect another new bottom. Actually I expect a slow steady climb, intercepted by some sideways, and a few minor corrections.  I"m still "waiting"....(NOT) for the big correction being forecast by some who feel they have a better insight to market psychology and are forcing the we have risen too fast too quickly onto their views.  Bring it on, if it happens, I'm a buyer as I was this week. 

Is Buy and Hold dead?  Since I forsee minor corrections at best. After  watching the stocks that bottomed in the November and March bottoms not rebottom, and knowing that beaten down stocks will be harder to come by if the market really recovers, then I'm still  buy and hold. The stocks in my profile with the green dollar sign have been good buy and holds for me.I still find one to add from time to time.  I still "play" with high beta stocks, but I don't need the tax implications of trading my "longs" every time the market sneezes...(swine flu, bird flu, or just plain chicken).  

Was the March 9th dive overdone?  If you say yes, then why shouldn't we be back to January 1st levels, even at a rapid clip?   If you say no, then why are you buying stocks right now anyway?  If you're a bear and you spend the entire year hibernating, they you're missing out on some baggers.  It was a surprise to me, but after watching a half dozen forecasters keep "wishing" for a bear market, I realized there are more betting on bear than bull.  I don't understand why.

If you believe that we need to have two sharp declines in a recession then what's wrong with the November dive and the March 9th dive.....???  Looks to me like a nice "W"  It appears to me to be similar to other recessions. In this case we have emerging markets to pull things back up as they weren't hit as hard by the banks, but were hit by their "pigeons"....errrr "customers" being hurt. Internal growth, however, is a new variable, helping to offsett their clueless customers.

Yes, I still believe in buy and hold.

I still believe in resistance levels.  New money doesn't like to admit their wrong. Investors have the fear of missing out after a year of losses. They are still skittish, still sheep, but maybe we can keep them off the cliff.

Part of my portfolio is a marathon. Part of my portfolio is a Sprint. I could do either or, but where's the risk/reward/profit/loss.....aka FUN in that????

TSIF  (No falling sky today, but it does look like rain.......)