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IF Investing is a Marathon.....Why am I outta breath???

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June 20, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: SH , E , EP.DL

Okay, maybe I'm out of breath beacause I'm a couch potato, well not really....a computer potato in my recliner maybe...but the market has driven me to it.

I'm not sure if:

   One has to stay one step ahead of the market to make money.

   Beside the market, but ready to maneuver.

   One step behind the market to pick up the pieces it leaves behind.

I have found that many of my stocks that I got "stopped" out of before I got much more conservative on my stops , have risen back up to new heights leaving me behind.  It's kinda funny, but goes to resistance levels, both high and low that stocks, for the most part,  that bottomed in the early November fall didn't rebottom in the March 9th fall. Will stocks that bottomed in the March 9th fall get a free pass if we fall hard again?

Barring a new "fear" event  I don't expect another new bottom. Actually I expect a slow steady climb, intercepted by some sideways, and a few minor corrections.  I"m still "waiting"....(NOT) for the big correction being forecast by some who feel they have a better insight to market psychology and are forcing the we have risen too fast too quickly onto their views.  Bring it on, if it happens, I'm a buyer as I was this week. 

Is Buy and Hold dead?  Since I forsee minor corrections at best. After  watching the stocks that bottomed in the November and March bottoms not rebottom, and knowing that beaten down stocks will be harder to come by if the market really recovers, then I'm still  buy and hold. The stocks in my profile with the green dollar sign have been good buy and holds for me.I still find one to add from time to time.  I still "play" with high beta stocks, but I don't need the tax implications of trading my "longs" every time the market sneezes...(swine flu, bird flu, or just plain chicken).  

Was the March 9th dive overdone?  If you say yes, then why shouldn't we be back to January 1st levels, even at a rapid clip?   If you say no, then why are you buying stocks right now anyway?  If you're a bear and you spend the entire year hibernating, they you're missing out on some baggers.  It was a surprise to me, but after watching a half dozen forecasters keep "wishing" for a bear market, I realized there are more betting on bear than bull.  I don't understand why.

If you believe that we need to have two sharp declines in a recession then what's wrong with the November dive and the March 9th dive.....???  Looks to me like a nice "W"  It appears to me to be similar to other recessions. In this case we have emerging markets to pull things back up as they weren't hit as hard by the banks, but were hit by their "pigeons"....errrr "customers" being hurt. Internal growth, however, is a new variable, helping to offsett their clueless customers.

Yes, I still believe in buy and hold.

I still believe in resistance levels.  New money doesn't like to admit their wrong. Investors have the fear of missing out after a year of losses. They are still skittish, still sheep, but maybe we can keep them off the cliff.

Part of my portfolio is a marathon. Part of my portfolio is a Sprint. I could do either or, but where's the risk/reward/profit/loss.....aka FUN in that????

TSIF  (No falling sky today, but it does look like rain.......) 

 

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 20, 2009 at 4:25 PM, catoismymotor (51.71) wrote:

Good blog, TSIF. Like you I am in with new money no matter what happens next.

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#2) On June 20, 2009 at 5:17 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Thanks, I'm dollar cost averaging if my LONGs if there are any large pullback, else I'm into new things.  It doesn't mean I won't sell a "long" if it doesn't meet my goals any longer, but I'm not inclined to churn them for a few bad days.  There are still some beaten down stocks out there, and I'm not staying on the sidelines while someone else "right values" them.   That the market does correct it's misses is generally true, but how soon they do it can vary.  Good luck!!!

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#3) On June 21, 2009 at 11:55 AM, rofgile (99.29) wrote:

TSIF:

 Have you been getting bored from investing lately?  Things have been on a more or less even-keel lately on the markets - and I think I miss the higher volatility.  Its getting harder to want to follow things in the market, just because things are starting to change less quickly - testing my patience.  Just observations of my personality.

 The boredom I'm feeling seems like a good thing for buy-and-hold. 

 -Rof 

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#4) On June 21, 2009 at 1:25 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

When you start getting use to 5-10% weekly changes it does seem like a 1-2% move is nothing.  Watching your stocks pop up and down is certainly not the steady state norm!  I've had my account move up 5-10% in a day even though its diversified. A little quieter would be a good thing.  I still find some HIGH BETA stocks to play with to keep it interesting!

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#5) On June 29, 2009 at 3:59 PM, Tagit (56.99) wrote:

Reminder...SYMW

 

When I gave you the tip it was .0006 its now .0014 and rising. Don't wait tooo long.

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#6) On June 29, 2009 at 7:17 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I saw that!  Better call than the one I gave you.....Big tear today!  Good call.

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