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If the BDI is a Leading Indicator ...

Recs

36

October 01, 2009 – Comments (17) | RELATED TICKERS: DOW , N

The Baltic DryBulk Index is often cited as a leading indicator. Taking a look at the chart, there is really only one direction that the BDI is forecasting....

.... I will let you make up your mind.

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17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 01, 2009 at 4:32 PM, 4everlost (29.61) wrote:

Thanks for the chart - and great tickers! Rec 10 here...

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#2) On October 01, 2009 at 5:29 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

Canary meet Coalmine

Coalmine meet Canary.

Now that might be the easiest to read  Elliot chart ever

not really many bllish possible interpretations possible there.

Perhaps it's time to get short shippers.

Hey Binve you look at $lumber lately? I think it's forecasting another move down in homebuilders.

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#3) On October 01, 2009 at 5:31 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

Oh and the new header on the blog is a nice aesthetic upgrade. :)

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#4) On October 01, 2009 at 5:33 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I don't have a clue what any of that means.

I'm assuming that that's a decline?  But I see the "change" as +39?  Does that mean its good?

I'm an idiot, sorry.

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#5) On October 01, 2009 at 5:43 PM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

I'm with Jason.  I may not be technical, but showing a chart that goes up-up-up, followed by a, projected, near 180 degree reversal to the extreme down side doesn't seem all that logical to me.  Not at all. 

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#6) On October 01, 2009 at 5:45 PM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=268726&t=01007468826027738866

see my comment #3

Binve, either great minds think alike or your stealing my ideas....I demand half the royalties.  ;-)

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#7) On October 01, 2009 at 5:47 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

ok so its a good thing....i think?

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#8) On October 01, 2009 at 5:48 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

comments  4 and 4

Binve uses elliot wave principle. you won;t understand the work wo knowing the concept.

go here to learn how www.elliotwave.com

or read Goodvibe4ever's blogs here at CAPS.

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#9) On October 01, 2009 at 5:50 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

long story short the BDI,according to about any interpretation of EWP, is suggesting it will move below the MArch lows significantly.

So no not a good thing at all.

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#10) On October 01, 2009 at 6:02 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

4everlost, Thanks!

Tastylunch,

Canary meet Coalmine

Coalmine meet Canary.

Exactly man :). When you and I talked about this, what, last month? Maybe the month before? I made up this chart. Then I forgot about it until today, refreshed it and saw nothing to suggest bullishness.

Perhaps it's time to get short shippers.

Aye Captain! Red Alert, Full Reverse :)

Hey Binve you look at $lumber lately? I think it's forecasting another move down in homebuilders.

I have not, I will probably do so tonight. I always like looking at interesting charts :)

Oh and the new header on the blog is a nice aesthetic upgrade. :)

Thanks bro!

jason2713,

+39 points on the BDI means its up 1.69% for the week. Just the local change for the latest candlestick.

ChannelDunlap,

I may not be technical, but showing a chart that goes up-up-up, followed by a, projected, near 180 degree reversal to the extreme down side doesn't seem all that logical to me.  Not at all.

Seriously?

Look at the chart for what happened in Nov 2008.

A near vertical down move followed by a near vertical up move.

That seems like a 180 degree reversal to me.

Nothing *ever* goes up and down in a straight line. Humans make this mistake all the time. **EVERYBODY** was bearish on equities at the beginning of March, just like **EVERYBODY** is bullish on equities right now. Violent turning points happen during extreme sentiment, and yes, sometime those can be sharp (almost 180 degree) reversals.

Mark910.,

LOL! Hey man, I was not trying to steal your idea :). I actually did not open EPS's post, I just saw the title. Which is what prompted the chart I forgot about (see my response to Tasty above).

No worries on half royalties, I will give you half of my recent losses in the market :).

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#11) On October 01, 2009 at 6:03 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

LOL! Yep, what Tasty said :)

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#12) On October 01, 2009 at 6:13 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

Hah forgot to include the music I always think of when when looking at EWP

one two

three four five... :)

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#13) On October 01, 2009 at 6:53 PM, Teacherman1 (28.84) wrote:

You may want to short shippers, or maybe invest in those who have a lot of long term contracts, and then buy the others when they crash. Just a thought.

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#14) On October 01, 2009 at 10:32 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Tastylunch, LOL! That's what always inspires me to count every day :) Thanks man :)

Teacherman1, Not a bad thought!..

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#15) On October 06, 2009 at 6:10 AM, hhasia (63.24) wrote:

Hi Binve

 I would like to point out that the BDI has a high degree of coorelation with CHINA.  The largest exporter fills the orders, and ships. If the importers, are cutting back (USA) then there is less to ship.  The indexes of China and Hong Kong, flow intandem with the BDI. The big China drop and BDI drop are reflections.  So the question is, will China come bounding out of the holidays in a positive mood?  We find out October 8.  A week of merry making has likely got folks chomping to get back to speculation city ( Shanghai). Meanwhile the bozo's give Hong Kong shippers UPGRADES today, posting a buy for Sinotrans shipping.  Buy low? or buy lower?.... Ah the wisdom of the financial professionals (Not).

Binve, will  you please post a chart for the Jakarta Composite Index?  This is the darling of Asia. ( the Fourth largest country in the world, is hammering them all ). Indonesia, big component, Oil and Gas, not financials!

HHAsia

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#16) On October 06, 2009 at 10:40 AM, tdoodler (25.67) wrote:

HHAsia:

I agree with your analysis. But what is October 8th?  What should I be watching for?

Tdoodler 

 

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#17) On October 06, 2009 at 1:22 PM, hhasia (63.24) wrote:

Tdoodler

Mainland has been on holidays for the past week. All come back to work Thursday. The market in Shanghai has been closed since Sept 28, re-opens Thursday.

I hoping for a rebound of mainland stocks that have been beaten down, I've been bargain hunting while they have been on holiday.

HHAsia 

 

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