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kirkydu (93.91)

If you're a bull, you're about to become steak!

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June 09, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: GS , C , JPM

Here is a revisit of a letter my investment advisor wrote. 

http://kirkspano.com/content/view/36/46/

What do you think?

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 10, 2009 at 1:23 AM, checklist34 (99.72) wrote:

in the nasdaq bubble the simplest analysis could show that tech stocks had to come down, way way way way way down.  a router company (CSCO) cannot have a market cap in the trillions.  A petstore online cannot have multi-billion market cap when the whole pet food market doesn't justify that and its not going to get 100% market share.  etc.

my great question, as yet un-researched by me, is this:  how much of the economy was on credit beyond the means of the borrower to repay.  Thats really the thing we need to sit down and take a look at, folks. 

Is there REALLY that big of a credit bubble as to reset the economy to radically lower levels?  Or is it the negative/bearish analog to the tech hype of 10 years ago.

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#2) On June 15, 2009 at 10:47 PM, alberta911 (74.25) wrote:

Kirk  thanks for allowing us inside your advisory

Without knowing your book and client investment knowledge....Here is some food for thought

September 26 is too late try end of June early July to meet...discuss..Send home to ponder....more importantly they need to talk to one another.

You should meet formally before the secondaries are completed in the finance sector....or if you are like me last week to discuss their commodity holdings as Albertan tends to invest in what they know and what they do.

Perhaps your clients are much more financially educated than mine as you really should pull someone who can explain toxic assets acbp futures... sometimes hearing it from someone in the insurance agency is a greater approach...after all they do not come to me with a tooth ache they go to their dentist.

Think of crawling up the balance sheet and send them a list a quality preferred of they refused to play debt not that long ago when the spreads were insane

Don't make it political this is not a right or a left problem this is a common sense problem....avoid at all costs the following

What the current government inherited from the past several governments and a morally deficient financial system, was so overwhelmingly terrible (we have covered that before), that the choices were between bad and worse.  I believe we have chosen badly, which in the end is good.

We have no clue who will lead us out but we know where we want to be when they do....

Inflation - Be as frank as you can...before you go out and buy gold at $1000 ....did you refinance your home for as long as you can as these rates will not be here in 5 years...think outside their portfolio but not outside their investments...in Canada our 1st home is not deducted until we sell it


Don't ignore what the mass media is ignoring...why are we still stuck on wall street...I like when people say sorry to me and if there ever was a time to apologize for my industry today would be a good time


These kind of statement can be used against you
We will be under-weighted in investments that need consumer spending to sustain profits....yet overweight in commodities...interesting as my clients look at food gas and kids as consumer spending

2 summers ago I mailed a book read by a few...
Risk is a four letter word....great book about asset allocation
Last summer everyone got a copy of the Risk is still a 4 letter word....oil jumped $40 from the time I bought till the time it hit their door...time to rebalance

Your game plan is way different than ours but we have the same challenges....in layman terms this is what concerns US holdings were discussed the most

Double down on TARP until the secondary’s are paid for...future earning potential has be de-leveraged
Potash the wholly grail has some problems in  2009 but a huge potential in 2010...rather be late than early...so profit take
Gold at $1000....is too expensive and revisit again this Halloween
Oil time to go underweight as nothing but TARP and a few floating lakes are support it
Natural Gas... 18 to one...rather be the first to the party than the last...shut ins...Capex...LNG is not cheap...either is frac...rather hold the real thing than a company with real problems
Canada trust structure is dead so we need to start looking if you have not already at MLP....you need to start looking at it because somewhere taxes are going to need to come from
Health Care Generic hip replacements...and  a bio etf...consolidation is needed...yes we are playing the H1N1 as what does WHO and medical field know that we don't know to be placing orders?  It helps to have a large medical investment community like we do to scare everyone are your BBQ
Dirt and a shovel...infrastructure
Green energy vs. a green wallet
Technology?  5M and Rimm require us to step out of the Canadian dollars

 

 To the poster

Is there REALLY that big of a credit bubble as to reset the economy to radically lower levels? No but there is a REALLY big leverage problem with the people who supply credit....not comforting to see they are now controlling the game plan to unwind the problem either.

 

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