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May 12, 2010 – Comments (10)

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Ifo Business Climate Germany

Ifo Business Survey April 2010

Ifo Business Climate Remains Buoyant

Results of the April 2010 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved again strongly in April. The firms are considerably more satisfied with their current business situation, this survey component having now improved strongly for the second month in succession. Also with regard to the business outlook for the coming half year, the surveyed firms are again more optimistic than before. The German economy has shifted into a higher gear.

In manufacturing the business climate index has risen once more. The manufacturing firms have again given clearly more favourable assessments of their business situation. Also with regard to their business expectations in the coming half year they are more hopeful than in the previous month. They also see better opportunities for exports. Currently, the firms are utilising their equipment and machines at a clearly stronger rate than at the beginning of the year. The capacity utilisation rate in industry is now somewhat below the long-term average. Company plans to reduce personnel are again more seldom.

The business situation has also brightened further in retailing and in wholesaling. In both distribution sectors the firms have assessed their current business situation more positively than before. They also view the six-month outlook less critically.

In construction the business climate index has fallen slightly after having risen four times in succession. The current business situation is assessed by the building contractors as clearly more favourable than in the previous month. However, with regard to business developments in the coming six months they are not quite as optimistic as they were in March.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

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Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the April 2010 Ifo Business Survey (23 Apr 2010) (pdf)

 



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Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactorily” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2000.

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10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 12, 2010 at 6:49 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

April 23, 2010, German business confidence edges higher again

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Ifo World Economic Survey 
WES Q2/2010

Ifo Economic Climate for the Euro Area

12 May 2010

Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 2nd quarter 2010 
in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Paris

Euro Area: Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator Rises Slightly

The Ifo indicator for the economic climate in the euro area rose somewhat in the second quarter and continues to stay below its long-term average. The assessments of the current economic situation improved only slightly vis-à-vis the first quarter. The expectations for the coming six months weakened somewhat but remain positive on the whole. These results indicate that the economic recovery will continue in the second half of the year, albeit at a slower pace.[1]

The current economic situation is still assessed as unfavourable in all countries of the euro area. The best appraisals of the current economic situation came from Germany and Slovakia. Particularly poor assessments came from Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy and also France. The expectations for the coming six months, however, are positive in almost all countries. Weaker confidence was expressed by the WES experts in Spain and Portugal and especially in Greece, where a further clear worsening of the economy in the coming six months is anticipated.

Inflation expectations for 2010, at 1.5% on average for the year, are somewhat above the reference value for 2009 (0.7%), but still clearly below the medium-term target level of the ECB. In the course of the coming six months a slight strengthening of the upward trend of prices is expected. A growing number of WES experts expect that key interest rates will be increased in the coming half year. An even more pronounced increase is expected in the next six months for the capital market interest rates. The US dollar, despite its recent appreciation, is still viewed as undervalued in relation to the euro.

Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

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WEC_Eurozone_II_10.pdf

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#2) On May 12, 2010 at 6:53 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:



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#3) On May 12, 2010 at 7:14 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

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Maersk raises 2010 outlook after Q1 profit jumps

Reuters, Wednesday May 12 2010

Shipping and oil group A.P. Moller-Maersk raised 2010 profit guidance after a forecast-beating first quarter driven by recovering freight rates and higher oil prices, boosting its shares sharply.

"2010 started better than expected and overall expectations for the A.P. Moller-Maersk group are thus a profit for 2010 -- an improvement compared to the previous statement on March 4 of a modest profit," the Danish company said on Wednesday. Maersk's stock was up 7.9 percent by 1014 GMT, outperforming a 2.0 percent rise in Copenhagen's OMXC20 index. Profit before financial items more than doubled to 11.2 billion Danish crowns ($1.9 billion) in the three months to the end of March, beating forecasts in a 5.56-10.37 billion range in a Reuters poll in which the average estimate was 8.23 billion. "Very strong results, no doubt about it," said ING analyst Axel Funhoff. "Pretty strong across the board but the key surprise really came out of the container shipping division." Container shipping swung back into profit from a year-ago loss. In March, the group said its container business, where its Maersk Line is world leader, would post another loss this year. "The group's container shipping and related activities are now expecting a positive result for 2010 based on the improved market conditions for the container shipping activities," the company said on Wednesday. Chief executive Nils Smedegaard Andersen told Reuters in an interview the development in freight rates had improved significantly from three months ago, but he cautioned against expecting the first-quarter trend to last all year.

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A.P. Møller - Mærsk, Interim Management Statement 12 May 2010 (pdf)

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#4) On May 12, 2010 at 7:17 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

#924) On December 26, 2009 at 8:01 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: MAERSK-B.CO - 7080.13 (36600 DKK) - outperform

(from here)

 

MAERSK-B.CO is currently at around 48410 DKK. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MAERSKB%3ADC

 

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#5) On May 12, 2010 at 9:12 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

Hey Port,

I was wondering if you have any analysis / thoughts on Deutsche Borse. I belive their ticker is DBOEF. What do you think about their stock for next 12 months? Thanks.

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#6) On May 12, 2010 at 9:27 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

No, the ticker is DB. It is one of my largest positions currently.

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#7) On May 12, 2010 at 9:28 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

oh, sorry, Deutsche Börse. I don't have an opinion on that company.

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#8) On May 12, 2010 at 9:30 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

can you formulate one perhaps? haha

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#9) On June 24, 2010 at 10:37 PM, cxlzy (< 20) wrote:

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#10) On July 23, 2010 at 6:17 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:



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(from here)

 

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises Sharply (pdf)

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