I'll be the lone contrarian on SPF if I have to!
Lots of people chiming in with underperforms based on Alstry's underperforms don't impress me at all. I'll be the lone SPF contrarian if I have to.
When I analyze a company I don't consider the management's past ill behavior or bad apples as my #1 motivator. Besides I think the main guy that Alstry bashed, no longer works at Stan.dard Pacific Corp. Look at UBS for a great example. Ever since OSPEL was sent packing the stock price has grown +$3 or so. Alstry obsesses over the past. But investors don't price a stock based on past performance. They price a stock based on expected future performance.
What I look at is the entire picture of a company.
#1: Does SPF have enough diversification to survive the housing crisis? By that, I mean is there anything to like out there for profitability's sake?
SPF's housing in Texas and the Carolinas is actually profitable. They are in the green!
Furthermore, February foreclosure buying statistics recently released showed that foreclosed homes are being bought at an increase of 2.1% if my memory of the report is correct.
#2: The product matters!
Maybe the price is bad. But the product matters and you'd have to be out of your mind to find fault with SPF's homes and condos. The architecture is truly stunning. Maybe the price is bad?
#3: SPF is diversified in 16 states. Believe it or not that matters a lot. Not every single state is as bad as the other. Diversification will keep SPF afloat.
#4: If Alstry's bashing of SPF was so wonderful for all to worship why hasn't SPF gone bankrupt yet? Why has the S&P analysis report still considering SPF a HOLD rather than a SELL?