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I'm above 20 rating again ! Whoopie !

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September 02, 2009 – Comments (13)

And sometimes i look at my portfolio and think, Wow, many of these will move the way i want them to eventually.

Will i ever be in positive points? gee, i'da know. I'd like to think i am getting better. 

Those ULTRAs really killed me. I only have them short now. 

I would sure accept advice, also, from any fool who sorta knows me (or strangers). If you see a stock on my account that is never coming back, let me know, and maybe i'll try to strategize an exit point. 

If we head to less than 950 this month i will be looking much better.

-solaris

ps, i noticed binve was in his twenties also, heh.

 

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 02, 2009 at 5:42 PM, outoffocus (23.08) wrote:

Grats.  I'm right along with you. My rating is up to 16 today.  About 1000 more points and I'll be back over to 20 as well lol.  

I'm holding fast to my red thumbs because I think my points will eventually recover. I'm only about 3 % accuracy points away from a >20 rating anyway.  Either way I believe I will back over 20 within the next couple months. I figure I'm positions to the point that if the S&P falls back under 900 I'll be in positive territory. Only time will tell.

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#2) On September 02, 2009 at 6:36 PM, Varchild2008 (83.82) wrote:

Congratulations!  Can I borrow about 19 of your points so I can get to 100?  ok...9 points then so I can get to 90?  please? Awww..come on!...don't be greedy.... :-|  Fine...I'll leave...

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#3) On September 02, 2009 at 6:41 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

Congratulations!

What I am doing here at the Fool may be of interest to you eventhough it is not all about getting a big score in CAPS.  It is about making outstanding gains in real life.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=252328&t=01001882548745899321

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#4) On September 02, 2009 at 6:43 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Solaris, on observation on your profile would be a recommendation that you try to not  jump out of a pick when it's between minus 20 and +6 unless you really believe it is going to turn and bite you. This can happens sometimes, and I will close picks between zero and +5 just to get out of them. Down thumbs can hurt the most!!!!   But overall, try to ride those that are more than likely not going to be big point getters, but not likely to hurt you either. In particular upthumbs that are between -20 and +6. Those will almost always come back into a better close range as earnings reports are issued, or the market bounces around.

If you close a pick between 0 and 4.99 it doesn't count toward your accuracy. With accuracy 25% of your score, it can make a big difference!!!

So I say +6 just to handle any market fluctuations after you close it as it takes  20 minutes for the pick to close. My best trick, when I can, is to close picks between 3:45 and 3:55 each day.  At 4PM you can see what the close price is and cancel the close if the stock swung wildly on you after you marked it for close. Any later than 3:55 and the pick may not close that day, but stay open until the market opens. IF CAPs had the close price match the price when you closed it, that wouldn't be an issue.

Keep it up.  I'll trade you some CAP's points for some of your fresh peaches!!!!  :)

 - tsif

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#5) On September 02, 2009 at 6:59 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

To echo what TSIF said, be extremely careful about closing picks that are negative. In the CAPS rankings, accuracy is more important than raw score. Only close them if there is no hope of it going positive and an ever increasing negative score is guaranteed.

Also be very carful about calling underperform on stocks with prices less than about $2. These seem to turn around and bite you more often than not.

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#6) On September 02, 2009 at 7:10 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Ouch chk999. I'm adding that ONE to my red thumbology, but going with sub $3!  I'm currently down 1,300 points on open down calls made when a stock was sub $3.  Looking at my closed picks, I did make a few good ones, but the points to be gained are not anywhere near the points you can lose!!!!!   I'm still down 511 points just on TEN!   I'm adding that one to my "rules to live by"...but I'm too stubborn to stick to that one completely. I will think two or three times before hitting the down thumb on sub -$3 stocks from now on!!!!

It makes sense now that you called my attention to it. It doesn't take much for a $2 share priced stock to go up to start to HURT!   It takes a lot more for a $10 stock!

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#7) On September 02, 2009 at 9:10 PM, ChrisGraley (29.70) wrote:

I needed that advice with RDN, when I red thumbed it at $1.85 chk999!

My only advice to add to the above SK, is that sometimes being right early looks a lot like being wrong for a while.

That and make sure you sell IRE for around $30 and get that 15 bagger.

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#8) On September 02, 2009 at 9:30 PM, SolarisKing (31.46) wrote:

well thanks for the advice, but actually, my accuracy is much higher than my score.

Both would be higher if i hadn't followed 'you know who's call about the market top at 804, and 850. I tell ya, leave those Ultras alone. lol.

I know you're right, and i'm not argueing, but as i learn more about valuation, i am starting to just change my mind about picks that i made a long time ago. A lot of my low point closes are because i held a stock for so long, and it finally came into range. Maybe i should hold those longer, but as i said, i just know more now, and don't like them any more.

i'm learning a little.

-solaris

 

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#9) On September 03, 2009 at 7:11 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

If you want to make a leveraged bet on the market's drop, red-thumbing FAS is a much smarter move than green-thumbing FAZ because you let the decay component work for you.  The only good reason to green-thumb FAZ instead of red-thumbing FAS is if you're a YES man and you want to keep that status.  Look at some of UltraLong's recent picks and you'll see that he's red-thumbing bull ETFs, not the other way around. 

Either way, I would avoid both because even if you're right about direction, you may be way off on timing because you never know what that Mr. Market is thinking.  That kind of call is market timing.  You should avoid market timing and focus more on valuation based on earnings and assets. 

Graham's books are must-reads for any aspiring value investor.  Please read them.  Also, you shouldn't pick a stock based on a highly-rated player's green or red thumb.  You should pick a stock because you've decided that it's undervalued or overvalued relative to the S&P 500 based on your own valuation and due diligence.  Highly rated players might be good places for ideas, but I'd learn to do my own due diligence and valuation on every pick.  Until you can do that, you won't get much better.

I just want to make an observation on your early close on ISYS.  First of all, use limits.  Second, factor in a 0.50% volatility factor in the S&P 500 even if you use limits to close.  That should stop those slightly negative ended picks that haunt you forever.  ISYS is hitting a new low, so I think it was a bad time to close it.  It's trading lower than it did even in March.  I know the news isn't all great, but you generally don't want to close a pick early when it's hitting a new low unless you're pretty confident it's going to zero (personally, I'm not so sure in this case).

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#10) On September 03, 2009 at 10:24 AM, SolarisKing (31.46) wrote:

Babo, thanks for your attention. I am taking it seriously.

I can't remember my reasons for closing ISYS, but i am seeing that i have cut my closings too close.  

   I think that i decided that ISYS was going down farther, and tried to reposition, but did so unsuccessfully.

one more lesson for me -solaris

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#11) On September 03, 2009 at 12:42 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

When I say due diligence, I don't mean "find a low PE stock" or something simple. 

I mean looking at things like earnings/dividend history, interest coverage on earnings, dividend payout ratio, capital structure (bonds/preferred/common), contractual obligations, does the company buy back stock when it's down and sell it when it's up (the smart way), which way are profit margins going, inventory/asset turnover, are sales/EPS growing at nice rates, all that good stuff. 

If you're unable to do such things, please read Graham!!! You're lacking in valuation techniques if you don't know all of the above.  I don't mind sounding like a broken record; it's just too freaking important.  I'm not 100% convinced you're doing what I just mentioned above.  By "read Graham," I mean read The Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis and fully understand them.

Click here for a sample of good fundamental analysis from JakilaTheHun, where due diligence has been done.

I know it's a lot of work, but trust me, you want every bit of knowledge you can get so that you're well-prepared to beat the market. 

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#12) On September 03, 2009 at 1:42 PM, SolarisKing (31.46) wrote:

Thanks, again babo.

   It's taken me a while to begin comprehending some of those terms, but i'm starting to get it.
   The problem was that each definition referenced more definitions, and at first it made my head swim. So i had to stand annoyingly close to fools like you until i started to slowly osmosis, but it's starting to happen. 

   I do currently look at the ratios compared to sector, and read the current/recent news. Some of the things you pointed out i had not thought of, like company stock buy backs, but some of it i am only begining to put on my list of things i look for. I am happy to say i roughly understood most of the terms you used. 

   Also, some authors are harder to read than others, so i appreciate you pointing out Graham again. 

   Actually, i am tracking my rating sans ULTRA'S on a spreadsheet (just learned how to use them last year) and i am rated high 80's to low 90's if i exclude all my ULTRA picks, both good and bad. What i mean by that is yes, i stink at valuation compared to many such as yourself, but i have a long history of being able to tell a winner (person) from a loser. So where i could certainly do MUCH MUCH better, i am always pleasantly surprised when i do my sans ULTRA spreadsheet. 

Please don't give up on me, i really am listening.

-solaris

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#13) On September 03, 2009 at 1:56 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Solaris, I'm only willing to comment because I think I'm "one of those fools who sorta knows you."  Otherwise I probably would've just glossed over your blog post and moved on. 

I agree that a high 80 or low 90 rating shows that you can indeed pick some winners over time.  I'm just trying to nudge you towards 2 of the greatest investment books ever written. 

By the way, when I started learning all this stuff, I felt the exact same way.  I'd look up definitions, which would define the terms using more terms that I didn't know.  I personally think you need to be exposed to something 3 times before you truly learn it.  Just keep at it, and know that everyone goes through it the same. 

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