I'm calling a top. Here's why.
I'm going to make the very bold statement that the S&P has reached a top intraday today and we are in for at least a correction, and in my expectations a bear market. Here's why:
-Most obviously and recently, profit warnings. Profits have beaten expectations for the last several quarters. Not this time. About a half-dozen companies warned today.
-These profit warnings should put us at about 0% earnings growth for the S&P, after being revised downward already. 0 or negative earnings growth has never occurred without a bear market.
-A housing recession has never occurred without a recession and bear market.
-Recent, huge increases in credit card debt and foreclosures do not show a healthy consumer (70% of the economy)
-Profit margins are at multi-year highs, but they always revert to the mean eventually. Does a market P/E of 18 sound good with no current quarter growth and collapsing margins down the road?
-The Federal reserve cutting .5% off the Fed funds rate with the stock market near all-time highs and unemployment low. You think they know something we don't... yet?
-The Dow Transports have NOT confirmed the movements of the other indices.
-The S&P has been in an upward triangle the last several days and it just broke downward.
-Most major indices have been shaping up for nice looking double-tops, with rising prices accompanying falling volume. Today they all broke downward, with good volume.
The argument that "we've beaten expectations for the last several quarters, we'll probably do it again" has been voided by the profit warnings. The argument that "the Fed will save us" is baloney. If we need a half-point rate cut and more (expected) subsequent cuts, we ARE in trouble. And as far as "globalization and a weak dollar will save us", do you really think this time is different?
As for my (non-retirement) portfolio? I'm trying to evaluate how much I believe in my picks outperforming cash right now.