Imports and Exports
Reported today is that import prices have increased by 1.7% this month and analysts only expected 0.3 to 0.4%.
I am not sure what the US dollar has done against all currencies, but it is down about 16% on the Canadian dollar from January of last year. This has been the general trend. The companies that produce the imports can't absorb that kind of exchange, so it really would not have been that difficult to have made a more reasonable estimate.
"The year-to-year rise in import prices was 13.7 percent, the biggest 12-month change since 1982 when the department began tracking this data."
The good news for the US is that export prices went up 1.2%, so export companies do have pricing power to cover commodity increases. I was saying last year that if I was vested in the US, export companies is where I'd be looking, but seeing I had no interest in risking Canadian/US exchange losses, I put zero effort into trying to find US export companies. I exited all of my US holdings in the fall of 2006 because of exchange concerns and then the US dollar rose from the fall until around January, when it then headed down.
I still think US debt is the biggest reason for currency declines.
I am doing fairly well on my exits, out in July, back in a bit in August, out in Oct/November. My current plan is to sit out for a year and just watch and then re-evaluate. I have to admit, I do scare, but the question remains is it "scare easily?"