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In Brazil, Automobile Production Up 92% in January

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February 12, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GM

GM Brazilian sales jump 30% in January

You many have seen a glimmer of hope for GM in an otherwise gloomy "Q4 2008 Global Sales Call Transcript."

GM reported there that they are finding some growth success in 26 targeted "emerging markets."  In these global markets, GM has a 12% market share, but in 16 of 26 of them they either held share or gained in 2008.

Particularly noteworthy in 2008 over 2007:  Brazilian GM sales was up 10%.  Russian sales up 30%.  And sales in India up 9%.  On sales of 1,090,000 vehicles, Chinese sales were up 30%.

And suddenly this week the report from Brazil is that the car market there seemed to rocket out of the gates for 2009.  Production (although jumping 92%) could not keep pace with sales of 197,000 vehicles in January.

The already firm GM sales numbers there surged by 30% from the end of December through the end of January.


As my friend Stephen C Kanitz who operates the blog, "Betting on Brazil" points out, "Don't start out your phone call with your Brazilian partner on a negative note.   Optimism is building here."

Some additional global evidence that a return to economic growth by summer is not out of the question.

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 12, 2009 at 8:08 AM, BenGriffin71 (28.23) wrote:

I'm not well enough informed about Brazilian sentiment towards the Real to guage the effect it has had on the ~10% increase in sales.

I do know that Russian concerns about Rubl devaluation have had significant upward pressure on autos sales and sales of all durable goods.  The same thing happened in 98.  Russians are making withdrawls and buying anything tangible.  It makes sense, as the goods (even after depreciating) are likely to have more value than Rubl in a few months.

 

It is difficult to consider this behaviour as a positive sign. The motivation is fear based and not rooted in optimism.  It paints a picture of severe consumer pessimism.

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