MFBriguy (99.87)

In CAPS, as in the market, slow, SMART and steady wins the race

October 11, 2007 – Comments (1)

A lot of kvetching regarding shorts.  Short, long, it makes no difference how you express your opinion - this game is all about points.  Whether you reliably pick shorts or longs, your ability to guess better than the market is what counts.  In particular, your margin counts as well as your accuracy. 

 That said, in 2012, I believe the leader of this game will be the leader b/c of some great long picks - a few 5-10-20 baggers that were down early and came back - way back - to reward those who were patient.  That person will sit on the miracle that is compound interest and scoff at those trying to pick up the stray points here or there on 2-3 month short plays.  Not saying money cannot be made or points cannot be had in shorts - b/c they can - just saying being really right long-term long will always beat being mostly right short-term short b/c the math says it must.   For shorts, the maximum is 100 + the market, for longs it is unlimited.  How many good short calls over the last 5 years would it take to equal one CME (up 20X in 5 years)?  

 Like many, I've poached some short ideas from the leaders in hopes of getting some "easy points".  Problem is, I've gotten some "easy" 100+ negatives in the process of getting some big positives. Thankfully, I've picked some longs I think will work out over time.  Will I ever be the leader?  Probably not, but I can say the leader will have some competition!