In Honor of Tigerpack, our next new Top Fool Club Member
It's been awhile since we had a firsttime #1. With the market slumping and most of the top 10 badly missing the trend change, we have upcoming upheavel in the ranks of the CAPS leaderboard. It appears that Tigerpack will be our next #1 if he can manage to overttake previous top fool club member and fellow bear (though he formerly called those shorting stocks "unpatriotic" Tickertapeking). In light of that, I quote Tigerpack from more than a year ago in comments on the CAPS scoring system and his ideas on how to improve it. Seeing as how he is now a top 10 player and will use (game?) that system to achieve the #1 spot, I'm guessing, I'm curious to see if his, and the community at large's, views have changed. Here's Tigerpack from March 30, 2009.
"I have metioned in other message threads that Motley Fool is more interested in creating page views with the CAPS game, than finding the best stock market mind in America. They earn money from the banner ads, with more page views and clicks from users.
If the CAPS "scoring" system did not unfairly reward thumbs down picks on their "relative" performance scale vs. real world profit results, and they added the third criteria of average gain per pick (which is already being calculated, but not ranked against other CAPS players), we would get a more clear picture of who is actually making money in the real world with their picks.
I would much rather know who is making 5-10 picks I can replicate without a margin account, at say +30% per pick, vs. following someone who mindlessly picks 200 stocks that "outperform" by 4% or 5% based on random luck!
On the thumbs down picks, a 20% upmove in the market MAY combine with a 20% downmove in a certain sector to create a +40 point gain in CAPS. But any knucklehead throwing darts would have replicated the 20% gain in the short sale example of the down sector, by throwing darts on the long side. How is that "outperformance" when you are making the exact same return in the real world???? A 20% gain vs. a 20% gain is NOT a 40% outperformance number under any rational logic.
We have just endured one of the more rapid and dramatic bear market declines in history, and the CAPS game is full of bears that have mastered the thumbs-down miscalculation by Motley Fool score keepers. Many of the bears in the top 100-200 of CAPS will crumble in score as they are forced to pick thumbs up in the unfolding multi-year bull market in stocks.
I personally have fashioned my CAPS picking to "fit" the way the game is scored. My real world accounts look much different and involve 10-20 stocks on the long side at any moment in time.
Perhaps a new CAPS experiement that equally weighted (1) total cumulative outperformance [with the thumbs down miscalculation fixed], (2) score per pick, and (3) overall accuracy for the three categories with a limit of say 50 stock picks, would give us a more clear picture of who can really produce real world returns."