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TheGarcipian (34.01)

In Need of a Large Net



July 24, 2007 – Comments (2)

Wa-hoo-squared!  I finally broke thru the Top 100 Players list in the Motley Fool's CAPS system. It just happened today with the good surge that the market had, with PCU and my oil picks leading the charge within my portfolio. I'm currently at #75 out of 32,891 players. That means I'm in the top 75/32891=0.23% of the players. Un-ba-freakingly-lievable.

From June 25th thru the 27th, I'd picked a plethora of stocks (41 in all) in order to ramp up my Score, with the goal being to break into the Top 100. Initially, those picks plunged my CAPS Rating from 143rd to 1274th, mostly because it took awhile for the Accuracy portion to kick into high gear. Now, of those 41 picks, 30 of them has since seen positive leads over the S&P, while only 11 have lost to the index. (Not bad, but then this is a rising market---but for how much longer?)

My accuracy is almost 66% and climbing. That means 2 out of every 3 stocks are going in the direction I called for them, at least for the time being... whodathunkdat?!

And on the real-money contest front, I'm currently #15 out of 1429 people in the Fool's "Summer Foolery" stock-picking contest. With 1429 people playing, the winning prize is currently $1430. But since I've got to claim the top spot in order to win the money, I've got a better likelihood of being kissed by Shrek, especially against the skills of highly rated players like Hodarius, RDotson310, EV38 and jr081. Afterall, we've still got about 40 days of the competition to go (it ends August 31st). In this contest, you can pick no more than 20 stocks and you are locked in with them; no shuffling in-or-out. You've got to ride them all the way thru 8/31/07. All the way to the bank, baby!

Anyone seen my big-ass butterfly LUCK catcher?

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 24, 2007 at 1:27 AM, StockSpreadsheet (65.95) wrote:

Congratulations on making it into the Top 100 Players.  Good job.

I was there for a little while.   Made it as high as 85th place with an accuracy rating of 66.67% and a score of about 975.  Unfortunately, the market hasn't been kind to my portfolio this past week, so I have dropped a lot.  Was ranked below 210 on Friday, up to about 185 today.  Maybe soon I can rejoin the ranks of the Top 100.  

Hope to see you at the top.  Congratulations again on your success.  Especially glad to see that you did it using mostly outperform calls.  (I know and understand the benefit to the CAPS community of underperform calls, but I still prefer to see people rising up the ranks using outperform calls as opposed to underperform calls.)

Take care and have a nice day.  May all your picks be winners.


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#2) On July 24, 2007 at 11:48 PM, TheGarcipian (34.01) wrote:

Thanks, Craig, for the well wishes. Same back at ya. You're doing amazingly well for having been in CAPS for only 2 months. Congrats on breaking the Top 100 in so short a time!  Looking at some of your picks, I can see you'll be back there in no time.

And yes, I'm with you on the preference of outperform over underperform calls. If the market has taught us anything, we should know that over the long haul, stocks go up. So, picking long-term winners is the better less-time-consuming way to go (plus, it may allow you to sleep more easily at night or enjoy an extended vacation w/o worry about being disconnected from the DJI). Shorting stocks is, at best, a near-term method for boosting gains (as Dave & Tom has written many times over the years).

I'm trying very hard to keep CAPS as close to my real-world investing style as possible, and not just playing some stupid game to win it for the sake of bragging rights. That's rather childish, IMHO (caveat: This opinion subject to change when I tromp into the Top Ten). I want to learn from this experiment. Sure, I've taken the occasional flyer for the heck of it, to see where the CAPS-suggested stocks might lead me, or to simply jump on the same bandwagon (although I resist that temptation every day). Afterall, I can't know everything about every industry (valuations of banks & REITs still befuddle me), and that's where the teaching/learning part comes in. 

On the other hand, if CAPS only represented my real-world investing, I'd learn nothing, and I'd forgo the opportunity to grow. So, I do dabble in Underperforms and industries in which I'm uncomfortable in the hope of learning more about investing.

Cheers and Happy Investing to ya!

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