Indecision, In-de-flation
September 21, 2010
– Comments (6) |
RELATED TICKERS: CAG
, GLD
, SLV
A couple of headlines jumped out from the WSJ during my morning scan today. One on Conagra earnings and one on steel prices. TMFDeej beat me to the punch, but might as well toss in my 2-cents.
The WSJ reported that Conagra earnings fell 12%. The drop was partly blamed on "..ConAgra's commodity costs climbed more than 5% in the quarter, more than the 4% executives had expected." In addition to the rising commodity costs, CAG wasn't able to pass the cost increases along to consumers and consumers were buying more of its less expensive products and less of its more expensive products.
Commodities up - inflationary, held in check at the consumer level for now by the inability to raise prices.
The related headline that grabbed my attention was Steel-Price Rise Defies Forecasts. The headline makes a pretty good summary; steel prices were expected to stay weak, but are rising instead.
Add in new 52-week highs for GLD and SLV and I think the inflationistas win the headline wars for today.
About the biggest deflationary news was long bonds trading up in price/down in yield. However, fellow Fool zloj has the most likely explanation for that - the Fed is ready to go back to quantitative easing, i.e. snapping up Treasuries with printed money faster than my dog snaps up scraps of ham.
I don't know who wins the inflation-deflation fight near term, but long term I don't see any way the dollar doesn't get devalued further versus real assets. It might hold up well against other currencies, but that's only because those central banks are busy printing money too.
Disclosure: No position in GLD, SLV or CAG. I'm not an economist, but occaisionally try playing one on CAPS.
Fool on!
Russ
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