Intrinsic Value Formula
Over the past few weeks I have managed to waste an extrodinary amount of time testing and playing with a formula to value a stock from some key fundamental variables that lead to profitablility of companies. I have found that it is an incredible predictor of undervalued companies and has found some small and micro cap stocks right before huge double digit moves. So without further adu:
=((0.3*(FY09 EARNINGS*15))+((0.25*(FY10 EARNINGS*15)))+(0.15*(CURRENT SHARE PRICE*(1+(EST SALES GROWTH RATE/100))))+(0.15*(PPS*(1/(0.9+(CURRENT BORROWING RATE (0 IF NO DEBT)/100)))))+(0.15*(PPS*((OPERATING CASH GEN/MARKET CAP)*(SHAREHOLDER EQUITY/MARKET CAP))))+((DIVIDEND YIELD/100)*PPS))
As it appears on excel.
The main point of the formula was to see if there was a way to rank under valued stocks which I thinkit does for the most part. I would also like to hear opinions of how the formula works for you and your opinion of whether it correctly or accurately predicts the underlying or intrinsic value of the company/stock.
The best buys I have found through the formula are ACY, TCX, NM, AFSI
The most interesting things about the stocks are insurance stocks tend to be undervalued or seem undervalued.
Small and micro cap stocks are more likely to be extremely under or over valued.
Most interesting is ACY. I found this friday morning with the formula when it was trading at 12.50. I began to watch it climb 10% friday. Another 10% today. It now sits at a Margin of Safety of 100% (it is priced at less than half of its actual value). It trades at a P/E of 5. It has been earning steady profits for 3 years and has a nice niche without too much dependence on any company. I have a price target of $35-40 short term and possibly $50-60 in the next 2-3 years. This includes zero growth from the company and just continuing operations.
I personally see those 4 companies double or tripling in the next 12 months. It will be interesting to watch my portfolio of "formula picks" (25 of them in all that have the required margin of safety) and seeing the performance.
Again please let me know any comments on the formula. I know the share value predicted changes with PPS (current share price) but I didn't know how else to create a formula without this. In the end I don't think you can have a concrete value because everything is relative. Any concrete value is ridiculous in practice because the value of assets is ever changing.