TMFUltraLong (99.97)

31 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 30, 2010 at 11:34 PM, Option1307 (30.48) wrote:

Maybe you should stop making new profiles and get caught up on your "Ask a Blunt Man" blog... Kidding!

Looking forward to seeing what you throw into this profile, hopefully I can steal some ideas. I always like to have some percentage of my RL account be in safer, longer-term, and/or dividend paying companies for the long haul.

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#2) On March 31, 2010 at 1:42 AM, Ticker007 (< 20) wrote:

What a laugh, I participated in a survey today from Motley and everything “for the most part” was addressed in this post~are you now an insider in the ruff? …..get it.

What away to exploit your ideas without consequence knowing all to well the fools hold you to high regard.

 So, please be kind in your efforts as the elderly LISTEN and beware that some are not so savvy ~ they just believe in the masses and maybe they believe in you. I truly think many have lost so much in recent years they don’t know who to trust anymore.

With complete respect, your one guy on caps that I really think wants to make a difference with intelligent help for those in need that has lost complete and utter hope in our system. Hence~your time, efforts and voluntary “free” advice are appreciated by many I assure you.

You may not always be correct~but I give you as many do; an A-plus for the effort.

Is it so foolish to believe the jester or is the American pie a dream?

Hope mom is doing well.

 

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#3) On March 31, 2010 at 9:40 AM, JimBobbly (< 20) wrote:

I love it when I see a new blog, especially as I've been checking your page every day this year! I look forward to viewing your long term picks. Thank you very much.

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#4) On March 31, 2010 at 11:20 AM, Option1307 (30.48) wrote:

Wow, that is a rather interesting lineup you put together. I guess I'm a little surprised that you are including high volatilty stocks/indexes such as FSLR, EWZ (Brazil ETF), etc.

I agree with you on Brazil, that this is likely a winner long term; however, I guess I just don't like the potential for large swings in a retirement account. Makes me nervous!! With that being said, I suppose some volatility is ok, perhaps even necessary, in retirement accounts for younger Fools. We need to grow our bling bling somehow!

I'll be vary surpirsed if this profile beats the market in the near term, especially if we continue our relentless rise towards the sky. But long term, this looks pretty damn sweet. 

Thanks as always for an idea center. Best of luck on this profile and my regards to you and your mom.

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#5) On March 31, 2010 at 1:09 PM, TMFRhino (98.02) wrote:

Hey UltraLong,

Could you shoot me an e-mail (ebleeker@fool.com), have an idea I wanted to run by you outside of an unrelated CAPS thread.

Thanks,

Eric

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#6) On March 31, 2010 at 1:21 PM, EnigmaDude (96.95) wrote:

Wow - that's a long list of picks to choose from. 

If anyone is interested in a more focused list I created a similar profile that would meet the same objectives:

http://caps.fool.com/player/focusdude.aspx?source=iersitlnk0000002

 

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#7) On March 31, 2010 at 3:53 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

A couple of your picks really surprised me....  Particularly GME as a long term stock..  I like it (and own it) short term, but not even I am optimistic about a brick and morter video game retailer's long term health in this "new fangeled digital age".

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#8) On March 31, 2010 at 5:01 PM, SINOHAN (< 20) wrote:

 Hey UL     What is your long term outlook on CMED. Your blog keepseveryone alert.  Sino       

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#9) On March 31, 2010 at 5:39 PM, JestYourFool (< 20) wrote:

Hi, Ultra,

Thanks for the information for us baby boomers!

I was pleasantly surprised to see that I actually own many of your recommendations.

For those of you who like dividends, some other good choices that I own in real life are:

KO (Coca-cola) - 3.0%
HOG (Harley Davidson) - 3.2%

Both companies have been around for over 100 years.  Not great growth companies, but KO still has steady growth and HOG will do better as (or if) economy improves.  I'm losing with HOG right now, but I bought it at an average of $46.59 a share.  It's now $32.35 - it could be a good time to buy.

Additional good dividend payers (which I own), in no particular order, with current yeilds:

T (AT&T) - 6.6%
UPS (United Parcel Post) - 3.1%
QSII (Quality Systems) - 2.2%
MO (Altria - you're betting on cigarettes!) - 6.9%
CAT (Caterpiller) - 3.2%
DE (John Deere) - 2.2%
AXP (American Express) 1.9%
ING (ING, Inc) - 18.5%
VE (Veolia Environment) - 4.2%
WM (Waste Management - a huge cash cow - trash is cash!) - 3.6%
IBM (International Business Machines, better known as IMB! - another 100-year old company) 1.9%
KFT (Kraft) - 4.1%
PWE (Penn West Energy Trust)  - 9.8%
MCD (McDonald's) - 3.4%
XOM (Exxon Mobile) - 2.5%
GE (General Electric) - 2.4%

Many of these companies are/were recommendations by TMF subscription services (Hidden Gems, Stock Advisor, Million Dollar Portfolio, etc.).  Some I purchased when I was a consultant for the companies - ING, IBM, WM, and GE.  And a few I purchased because I use their services - T, VE, XOM, MCD, ING, and UPS.

I also own a large number of financial stocks.  At one time they paid great dividends.  While I favored financial stocks, Ultra seems to favor energy (oil) stocks.  Ultra may have an insider at the White House since Obama just reversed a ban on oil drilling along the coasts of the US!

PLEASE REMEMBER:  I am not a financial professional.  I only play one online!  ;)

Donna

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#10) On March 31, 2010 at 5:43 PM, JestYourFool (< 20) wrote:

BIG CORRECTION!

HD (Home Depot) is paying 3.2% in dividends and is priced at $32.35.

HOG (Harley Davidson) is paying 1.7% in dividends and is priced at $28.07.

I own both.  HOG used to be HDI and I always got them mixed up!  Both are beating the S&P 500 (SPY).

Donna (JestYourFool)

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#11) On March 31, 2010 at 6:52 PM, JestYourFool (< 20) wrote:

Ticker007 -

Many of us "elderly" (I'm 50 so I qualify to join AARP!) are beating the market.  I'm up on average 17%. As with most of us, I've worked hard for my money.  I hate losing it in the market.  (So I hated tanking with investments in Enron, Freddie Mac, CitiCorp, and Krispy Kreme.) 

I listen, read lots of ideas, and research.  However, I purchased Enron when I was working in Houston.  I passed their huge headquarters every day, went to see baseball games at Enron Stadium (loved the movable roof, hated that the Pirates always lost!), and read the headlines in Business 2.0 magazine that Enron had the best management in the world before buying.  I personally saw the growth and opportunities at the company, did some research, and look where it got me!  ;)  (By the way, Business 2.0 is no longer in business either!)

Even though I couldn't invest in the stock market until the internet and companies like TDAmeritrade and ShareBuilder, I've been through a lot of ups and downs in the financial market. 

Remember when you could earn 20% interest on investments in the 1980's?  Friends in college took out student loans at 3% and invested the money in the market.  For me, I needed every penny to get through school. 

Friends from high school went to work at 18 at the local college.  The jobs didn't pay extremely well.  The "smart kids" went to college for better opportunities.  The "college dropouts" are now retiring after 30 years with great state pension plans and paid medical insurance for life. 

Therefore, whether college was a good investment will really depend on my portfolio and health care costs!  (Another huge change!  When I first started working, everyone had Blue Cross/Blue Shield; I paid little for health insurance; and the terms "managed healthcare," "HMOs," "co-payments" were rarely heard!) 

How about the tech stocks - either the boom or the bust.  Depends on when you were in and when you were out! 

The housing market?  I worked in the Los Angeles area when a little shack that need a lot of work would cost $250,000!

My best investment ever?  My house 22 years ago.  I have a small, 60-year-old, 3 bedroom, one bath home on about 3/4 acres of land and pay $395 a month on my mortgage.  (Recently, 1/2 acre lots just up the hill from me were going for $100,000!)  While the first few years were a bit of a struggle, I didn't buy over my head, have balloon payments, and I don't have to worry about losing my home during a recession - unless taxes continue to go up!

Please don't lump all the elderly together!  I'm a SINK (single income, no kids) as opposed to a DINK (double income, no kids)!  I went from living in poverty to becoming middle class with some nice investments.  I have a graduate degree while I come from a family of high school dropouts.  I've stayed in some great hotels, flown first class (because when consulting was booming, I flew over 100,000 miles a year!), traveled extensively throughout the US, been paid 50 cents an hour as a babysitter in the 1970's and $200 an hour plus expenses as a consultant in the 1990's!   (Now rates are as low as $25 an hour - expenses in the rate!  Oh, for the good old days!)

I've seen the YUPPIE (young, upperwardly mobile) generation (when you wanted to earn "more than your age" - $25,000 before 25; $30,000 before 30 - and you had it made!).  I've watched "kids" become millionaires with tech companies in the 1990's (just to lose it ten years later) and again in the 21st century (think Google!). 

I've gone from learning how to type on a manual typewriter (errors were corrected with white out!), using a slide rule (a calculator that did basic addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division - no percentages or square roots - cost over $100!), reading the stock market posted in eighths, and using the internet with AOL when you paid by the minute, to never worrying about typos with computers because of spell checker (HA!) and back space, calculators the size of key chains, buying stocks online for $25 at a time, and information flying by on WiFi.

I think most of the "elderly" today are more educated and financially savvy than our parents.  We thank Ultra for his insights but know that he is human.  Even he doesn't have a perfect record of stock picks!  ;)

JestYourFool

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#12) On March 31, 2010 at 7:18 PM, chk999 (99.98) wrote:

UltraLong - Nice idea for a port!

I looked through it briefly and generally like it a lot. But the techs I'm kinda dubious about. AKAM, AAPL, MOT, AMAT, UEPS, NVDA and MATK probably won't be market leaders in 20 or 30 years. I think they are ones I would replace with an ETF and let it deal with the inevitable changes in that industry.

Still, great job!

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#13) On March 31, 2010 at 8:52 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.97) wrote:

Option1307,

There are a few countries that I am really trying to exploit growth from over the next 15 years, those being: Brazil, Vietnam, South Africa, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand mainly with a few other countries here and there. I see these as a good mix of growth and solidity in this portfolio.

UltraLong

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#14) On March 31, 2010 at 8:52 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.97) wrote:

TMFRhino,

Email sent...

UltraLong

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#15) On March 31, 2010 at 8:54 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.97) wrote:

Anticitrade,

It's not like trading is going to be completely barred from this portfolio, but I really want to minimize trading and allow longs to grow in value over time. GameStop is going to change itself from a traditional brick and mortar location into an online gaming center over the next 8-11 years. They are the only large chain able to do this in my opinion and the gaming sector isn't going anywhere in the next 15 years. They have a nice niche and a good brand name which sticks. 

UltraLong

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#16) On March 31, 2010 at 8:55 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.97) wrote:

SINOHAN,

Pose that question on the Ask A Blunt Man - The Secret Stash thread and I'll answer it over there.

UltraLong

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#17) On March 31, 2010 at 8:58 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.97) wrote:

JestYourFool,

I purposely eliminated a lot of those 2-3% dividend stocks mentioned because there was no real growth story to speak of anymore, specifically with beverage companies... notice their complete non-existence in my portfolio. I also went significantly underweight on anything telecom related..it's a flattening business and they're going to need to do something else to grow revenues. I took MBT, VIP and MOT with PLCM related as well...that's enough exposure for me. I thoguht about WM and haven't disregarded it completely but preferred CLH for the long-term as it has a greater growth potential.

UltraLong

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#18) On March 31, 2010 at 9:01 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.97) wrote:

chk999,

I tried to avoid cyclical companies as much as I could but I wanted some growth companies in there with very strong cash positions. I got a few in there that even yielded a bit of a dividend and I expect all of them to remain industry leaders or at least in the top 3 within their sectors. Clearly AKAM, MOT are gambles and UEPS is the foreign technology play. If you noticed though there are tons of ETF's built into this portfolio.

UltraLong

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#19) On March 31, 2010 at 9:05 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS (50.75) wrote:

UL

This is my retirement account so far. I just started it this year.

 

BRK.B 81.27 -0.33 (-0.40%) 1.00

 

Q 5.22 -0.01 (-0.19%) 31.00

 

DHY 3.01* 0.00 (0.00%) 18.00

 

last number being the number os shares of course. I am thinking of selling Q if it gets back over 5.30, otherwise I'll hold for the dividend.

 

What do you think? Good start so far??

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#20) On March 31, 2010 at 9:09 PM, Ticker007 (< 20) wrote:

JestYourFool

You missed the point.. I like Ultra, I like his picks, think he's a great guy..but some and a lot are not as savvy as "you"..I'm near the AARP stage myself...but my parents have been getting AARP discounts now for awhile.

Respectfully, my parents didn't need a short story written by you.

They like Ultra and remind me often to inquire about his mother.

With that said~just because your AARP qualified didn't mean my comment was intended for you.

 

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#21) On March 31, 2010 at 9:25 PM, sevenofseven (< 20) wrote:

yahoo finance says ING hasn't paid a dividend since Aug 2008.  Where does the 18.5% current yield come from?

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#22) On March 31, 2010 at 9:31 PM, JestYourFool (< 20) wrote:

Ultra,

I was just adding my 2 cents and didn't want to duplicate any of the stocks you picked.  I do own AAPL, AKAM, AZN, JNJ, PFE, OKS, CSKI, and several of the EFTs, but you had already mentioned them.

Ticker,

GEESSHH!!!  I like Ultra, too, think he's a great guy, and have asked about his mother (on the ask a blunt man blog).  My parents are 70 and 82.  They are not in the stock market - which is what I prefer given their ages. 

You and your parents don't need to read my short story!  As they say in AA, "Take what you want and leave the rest!"  And as my niece says, "Take a chill pill!"

JEST

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#23) On March 31, 2010 at 9:38 PM, JestYourFool (< 20) wrote:

SevenofSeven,

I got that figure from Motely Fool when I typed ING into the search engine.  However, I went back and looked at my investment statements.  The last dividend from ING was on August 29, 2008.  I apologize for the mis-information!

Thank you for catching my mistake!

Jest

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#24) On March 31, 2010 at 11:18 PM, Ticker007 (< 20) wrote:

I just worry about the folks that has lost so much of their retirement funds do toooo B.S. =)

I'll take the chill pill and relax. " You have one"..So, are we good?

I prefer my parents be in the market..no brainer. They are both intrigued, and it's a joy to them. They like it better than Vegas..go figure.

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#25) On April 01, 2010 at 11:21 AM, MisterGoulash (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for your sharing your ideas regrading retirement investing. I have enjoyed reading your blogs too, like many others.

Your list of almost 125 stocks/funds is extensive. What would you consider the top 10 "Must Haves" from your list based on your initial selection criteria?

 Mister Goulash

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#26) On April 01, 2010 at 12:39 PM, JestYourFool (< 20) wrote:

Hi, Ticker,

I took my chill pill, too!  We're good!  ;)  My parents are extremely risk adverse - so it's not fun for them.  I'm glad your parents enjoy the game, have you to support them, and are so loving and kind to inquire about Ultra's mother!

Donna

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#27) On April 01, 2010 at 12:41 PM, JestYourFool (< 20) wrote:

Ultra,

Speaking of your mother, how is she doing?  How about you? 

Donna

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#28) On April 01, 2010 at 4:40 PM, cecamadocv (99.98) wrote:

I see that you think Brazil, Vietnam, South Africa, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand are the way to go.

 

I think Brazil and Australia are definitely the 2 best there.  But I don't think Canada and South Africa are good choices...

 

Stay away from the Franc, Canada, South Africa...  I'll explain my reasoning in a bit, about to leave work!

 

 

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#29) On April 04, 2010 at 10:14 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.97) wrote:

I took this Easter weekend to essentially "fill-up" this retirement portfolio with an additional 66 picks, bringing the open amount to 190 picks. I'm leaving 10 spots open for unique opportunities which might be worthy of a considerably longer-term hold. I'm essentially putting this portfolio into autodrive with a trade or three possible per quarter in order to keep the bomb charm away and cycle a few winners and/or losers in and out, but it's basically ready to go on its own. There are plenty of dividend payers in there with a good mix of growth and value, as well as foreign and domestic plays with almost every sector represented.

UltraLong

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#30) On April 05, 2010 at 10:03 AM, caidencollett07 (29.67) wrote:

For some reason I am not able to post any comments in the Ask the Bluntman blog post!?!?  But i have a question for you on NTWK.  What is going on recently with NTWK?  Should we buy more, or get out?

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#31) On April 05, 2010 at 1:15 PM, creek138 (91.62) wrote:

As someone who just opened up a Roth IRA this year I'm very interested in this profile.  What's your target date?

Right now I've just bought AINV and have the other 50% currently in cash, but was seriously considering buying some PBT, and missed my opportunity when it crashed to $16 the other day. Seeing as how shaky the market is right now, looks like I'll get one more chance before long.

But I am surprised that neither of these were in your port's picks, could you provide some insight as to why not?

Also...Volcom...really? really!!? Long term? Any stock that relies heavily on the ever changing moods of teenagers frightens the hell out of me long term.

Surprised O&G and energy as a whiole takes a relatively small portion of your portfolio. Same thing with commodities. China's supposed to grow 4 time as large within the next 50 years and the US about 50%...that's a lot of basic materials. Concurrently also surprised food and water take a small portion. Then again, this is by picks, not by asset allocation, would it be possible to put the allocation amount in your pitch for each stock?

A few years back, I weighed PBW vs GEX and thought GEX was the better bet, so I bought some, it hasnt performed well to date, but was wondering why you preferred PBW?

Also, reading from your "What the @*%& Rally!" post, you're currently short the market. So essentially,aren't you buying at the top? If you're anticipating a second crash, why then would you establish a portfolio, which depends heavily on those ever so crucial early percentage gains to provide better income over the long term, especially if you want to keep trades to a minimum?

Hope you don't think I'm being overly critical But you are a high profile user on this site and many people, myself included, are surely going to look at your selections to provide a basis for our analysis...especially when we see the gains you have realized and hope to portend some of those same gains to our own long term portfolios...ie this is really important $%!^. So I think it's crucial that we know where you're coming from. And personally, I really do appreciate what you're doing here. Thanks for this.

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