Is 30% unemployment around the corner?????
January 02, 2009
– Comments (16)
Right now, reported unemployment is approaching 7%.......some say the real rate is closer to 12-15%.
Recent articles indicate over 25% of all retail business facing serious financial stress. Domestic car dealerships are in critical condition.
From the WSJ:
One problem for the domestic-brand dealers is that there are so many of them. At the start of 2008, according to the National Automotive Dealers Association, the U.S. had 20,700 new-vehicle dealers, of which about two-thirds sold domestic makes. But those brands accounted for only about half of sales.
GM alone has 6,426 dealers, the company says. Toyota, with U.S. sales equaling about 85% of GM's, has just 1,461 dealers.
If we closed over half the domestic auto dealerships in America, we would still like have too many based on Toyota's footprint.
The impact of closing 25% of retail stores and 50% of domestic auto dealerships will be enormous. As commercial construction winds down, we can expect 50% of all construction workers to become idle.
It has become clear that most projections for unemployment are still way too optimistic. We are gutting important industries that employ significant numbers of workers by 25-50% and more. These industries include autos, airlines, construction, banking, hotels, retail, mortgage, finance, trucking and more.
As I told you, America is shrinking rapidly. Pawn shops are overflowing with luxury goods. The state of California is about to run out of money in the next few months. Many cities are on the verge of bankruptcy......and Americans still have their heads in the sand...but don't get down.....the rest of the world is facing similar issues.
We will get through this....but in the mean time, will will likely see a sharp increases in bankruptcies, expect your house to drop in value about 50%, decent cars will probably cost less than $20K, and families will likely be forced to become closer.
Once American wages drop about 50%, we will be able to compete with any nation in the world and our children will be standing on a strong foundation to compete globally. I have to tell you, as we enter the New Year things are starting to look brighter. We may see the DOW below 2000, but that will be just fine......thank about how many shares you will be able to buy at an attractive price.
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