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alstry (35.88)

Is 9.09 the Time?

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16

July 28, 2009 – Comments (17)

America's businesses are contracting rapidly.

World Economies are not far behind.....Lithuania GDP contracted over 20% in one quarter.

The "economists" are spinning Green Shoots as hard as they can but the public isn't buying it.....Consumer Confidence is down.

Consumer Conficence goes down when the consumer runs out of money....bankruptcies are skyrocketing.

Businesses are running out of money.

Hostpitals are running out of money.

Cities are running out of money.

School Districts are running out of money.

States are running out of money.

Police Forces are running out of money.

Judicial Systems are running out of money.

Prisons are running out of money.

Criminals are running out of money.

The problems is very severe now and getting much worse!!!!

 

As I have always said, during periods of significant economic distress, a major action is necessary to distract the public, in this case, the world, from its internal distress.  The distress in this case is monetary evaporation as fewer and fewer able to preserve savings.

What could the distraction be????

A pandemic where all are confined to their homes?  An economic collapse?  Or the most likely, a major war that resets monetary systems........

Right now I think the highest probability is a war in the middle east which could spark a parabolic rise in oil prices and massive destruction in the region.  Hopefully this will not be the outcome and some other less destructive event occurs.....like an economic collapse.  At this point, only time will tell but stories like this from Israeli newspapers seem to make my projection at least possible:

Israeli officials said Monday that they believe Hezbollah will try to escalate the tension on the Lebanon border by organizing civilian demonstrations and protests in the Har Dov area, as it did about a week ago, as part of an effort to launch a popular uprising against Israel.

Israel has warned Beirut through the United Nations that it would be held responsible for any hostile action launched from Lebanese territory.

Lebanon sent the United Nations a letter blaming Israel for the explosion of a weapons cache in a southern Lebanese village, the London-based paper Al-Hayat reported Monday.

An Israeli official responded that the cache merely contained ammunition the Israel Defense Forces left in Lebanon that Hezbollah had collected.

Al-Hayat reported that contrary to previous reports, the blast apparently killed several people and injured others.

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1103378.html

Starting a war with Lebanon would increase the likelihood of a much larger conflict with Iran.  Alstrynomics has been documenting the rise in tensions over the past few weeks.......let's hope it is simply a waste of time.....for all of our sakes.

Could it be time to go long oil?

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 28, 2009 at 11:43 AM, ReadEmAnWeep (81.48) wrote:

Alstry, I'm going to make a prediction that nothing will happen on 9/9/09.

 

Lets see who is right though.

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#2) On July 28, 2009 at 11:44 AM, alstry (35.88) wrote:

I hope you are.....

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#3) On July 28, 2009 at 12:11 PM, ReadEmAnWeep (81.48) wrote:

Ya lol.

 

 

For there to be a massive change or revolution there needs to be people who are unhappy with the current situation. Aside from CAPS I haven't heard anyone talk about an uprising.

 

 So you are saying that there could be one of the things you mentioned "A pandemic where all are confined to their homes?  An economic collapse?  Or the most likely, a major war" coupled with the government not being able to keep up with its debt? And that will cause the government to default and basically disappear because people would be pissed as hell. Right? Report this comment
#4) On July 28, 2009 at 12:21 PM, alstry (35.88) wrote:

For there to be a massive change or revolution there needs to be people who are unhappy with the current situation.

Patience weedhopper.......there are many more unhappy people out there than you think.....it is just not being reported.

When you have no job, no income, no savings and no money, in our society it is difficult to function.....stress tends to rise in such situations.

Stress is rising right now as the Zombulator unleashes its wrath.

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#5) On July 28, 2009 at 12:24 PM, ReadEmAnWeep (81.48) wrote:

What have you personally done to prepare?

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#6) On July 28, 2009 at 12:50 PM, motleyanimal (83.50) wrote:

Bought a refrigerator last week at Best Buy. It seems they were all sold out of the advertised model I wanted. The ad came out on Sunday and they sold 30 refrigerators by Tuesday. So I put one on order, along with 35 other people. It will arrive next week. Am I unhappy? No, not at all.

Bought some Citigroup last week and am enjoying the BUY rec from the S&P. Up 10%. Am I unhappy? No, not at all.

A recovery is in the works and while it will be slow, it is happening right before your eyes.

 

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#7) On July 28, 2009 at 12:54 PM, alstry (35.88) wrote:

Other than stock prices being manipulated by High Frequency Traders, can you provide any substantive evidence that things are turning around?

Despite your buy at BestBuy, you might be surprised by sales this quarter.

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#8) On July 28, 2009 at 1:59 PM, ReadEmAnWeep (81.48) wrote:

Alstry, just curious. What have you done to prepare for your prediction?

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#9) On July 28, 2009 at 2:04 PM, GNUBEE (24.95) wrote:

1 rec for #6

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#10) On July 28, 2009 at 2:18 PM, QualityPicks (36.91) wrote:

From what I've observed, "deals" are being bought by consumers. The consumer is biting, as long as they perceive the price to be good, it seems to me. So, as motleyanimal observed, if BestBuy has a good sale, people line up. I have actually seen the same thing with homes in my area, if somebody prices their home slightly below market, buyers line up and they get a lot of offers.

I have to say, that if this is "all" we got for a correction after the biggest financial ponzy scheme/bubble ever, I would be extremely surprised. But after the massive government and Fed intervention, I can see how we could stabilize for a year, maybe even three years. But when things breakdown again the government will be in worst shape to tackle the problems, with massive deficits and way more debt. 

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#11) On July 28, 2009 at 2:36 PM, motleyanimal (83.50) wrote:

Alstry, there is a daily barrage of positive indicators that we have a reversal of momentum, with banks leading the way. Even the poor newspapers had better earnings than anyone expected. With 80% of the government stimulus yet to enter the economy, there is much more upside than down. We will certainly see some seasonal retreat in September and October as we generally do, but the market is poised for a significant move up at year end. And if you think the market is so manipulated, why not take advantage of it?

I am a proponent of Motleyanimalomics. We are not about being right, we are only about making money.

 

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#12) On July 28, 2009 at 3:24 PM, alstry (35.88) wrote:

motley,

fair enough....

But from this perspective America is shutting down.

Office Depot is shutting down 10% of its stores.....same with Bank America.......many others have shut down all stores.

Few are hiring as hundreds of thousands are getting fired.

Revenues for Catapiller, U.S. Steel, and Paccar are all down 40% or more......same with homebuilders.

Government is shutting down......California has shut down 14% by furloughing all the state workers 3 days per month....once we find out that revenues are collapsing in a few days, expect California to shut down more.

Electronic sales are sucking wind evidenced by gaming sales down 30-40%.

My friend, I love your optimism...keep it up....now just double your score and you will only need a few thousand more to catch Alstrynomics;)

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#13) On July 28, 2009 at 4:14 PM, motleyanimal (83.50) wrote:

We are certainly slowing down, but not shutting down. Economies of scale, such as ours and China's, are immense systems that won't break down easily. I can think of  dozens of reasons why the Roman Empire fell, many similar to our own difficulties, but it took a wide combination of systemic failures and many centuries before the end came.

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#14) On July 28, 2009 at 4:59 PM, Varchild2008 (85.76) wrote:

9/9/09 is a sinister target in which quite possibly 1 or both major legislative bills (Health Care) or (Carbon Credits Trading) could pass the Senate or be signed by the President.

That certainly would crash the Stock Market. 

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#15) On July 28, 2009 at 5:06 PM, alstry (35.88) wrote:

motley,

They can break down in an instant if they are leveraged.....and few are leveraged like America.

As soon as financing is cut off.....down she goes.

Now it is all about extend and pretend.....once you can't extend, you can no longer pretend.

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#16) On July 28, 2009 at 5:09 PM, minduza (< 20) wrote:

alstry, lithuania's GDP contracted 22% compared to last years same quater

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#17) On July 28, 2009 at 5:12 PM, Suiname (41.44) wrote:

Beatles Rock Band comes out on 9/9/09.  I forsee... lots of people playing xbox/wii/ps3. 

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