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reddingrunner (92.45)

Is Paul Ryan making you rich?



August 16, 2012 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: VTI

Everyone's asking why the market keeps going up each day.  I think one factor is the Paul Ryan pick.  It did two things, it increased Romney's odds of winning the election and it offers hope for real entitlement and deficit reform.  Both of those portend a better long-term economic outcome than four more years of Krugmanomics.  

If I'm right, on days when there isn't any other significant news, the market should roughly follow the polls for the next 12 weeks, soaring if Romney takes a big lead, crashing if Obama's re-election starts to look like a lock.

For the record, my (real) money is on the former. 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 16, 2012 at 4:35 PM, Turfscape (< 20) wrote:

Anyone whose investments are based on the success of one political party or the other is investing wrong. The market does not like uncertainty. Whether there are Democrats in control, or Republicans will not matter more than a fraction here or there. Solid companies are solid companies regardless of political conditions. There is no true possibility of a political swing so large in the U.S. that we will suddenly change from our status quo (which has existed for decades) to fully-nationalized markets...despite what hyper-partisans may blog about in their endless free time.

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#2) On August 17, 2012 at 12:34 AM, NorCalTrader (< 20) wrote:

The market doesn't care who is in the White House, let alone which new Ron Paul fanboy just won the veepstakes as part of a losing ticket. The market historically has done far better under Democrats, and this means nothing. If you believe the rhetoric, D vs. R is the difference between Marxism and Fascism. If you believe in reality, D vs. R is the difference between a few tax credits going to one industry over another.

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