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alstry (35.94)

Is S&P INTENTIONALLY HOSING investors??????

Recs

19

February 25, 2009 – Comments (10)

First, let me start out by saying that this is the same analyst that hosed S&P readers on SPF as it now trades at $1.00.  I have to tell you, prior to me starting to analyze SPF, I never really read an S&P report.....after analyzing SPF in detail for a couple years, it became clear to me that no analyst could put out crap like this and maintain the interest of investors at the same time.

Case Study MHK:

On February 23rd, S&P's analyst K.Leon came out with this report on Mohawk:

02:32 pm ET ... S&P UPGRADES OPINION ON SHARES OF MOHAWK INDUSTRIES

TO SELL FROM STRONG SELL (MHK 27.86**): MHK is a market leader in carpet,

tiling and wood flooring, but consumer spending remains weak due to a

deepening housing recession. Assuming a weak market outlook for the global

flooring industry and applying a forward P/E of 11.1X to our 2009 EPS estimate of

$2.25, which is near the middle of MHK's historical range but still above peers, we

are lowering our 12-month target price to $25 from $27. MHK's share price has

declined nearly 40% since its $45 high last month, but the shares are still

overvalued, by our analysis. /K. Leon-CPA

OK, fine Mr. Leon, you expect MHK to earn about $2.25 per share this upcoming year and in order to lower your price target by only $2 you are applying a 11.1X multiple to your ridiculously high estimate to justify a price target of $25 and UPGRADE MHK from Strong Sell to just Sell.

Whooops!!!!!   THE NEXT DAY, that is right, THE NEXT DAY MHK releases guidance for Q1 2009 and it is more in line with Alstry's projections and not even close to Mr. Leons.  But that is not the amazing part of the story.  Just look at the comments Mr. Leon puts out THE NEXT DAY......LESS THAN 24 HOURS LATER AFTER BEING SOOOO WRONG!!!!!!!!!!

February 24, 2009

12:10 pm ET ... S&P UPGRADES OPINION ON SHARES OF MOHAWK INDUSTRIES

TO HOLD FROM SELL (MHK 24.03***): MHK posts Q4 loss of $0.23 vs. $5.53 EPS,

excluding asset impairment charges, compared to our breakeven forecast. Sales

declined 18% in Q4 as all three business segments showed weaker sales in all

regions.We see a 23% sales decline in '09 and then a 10% rise in 2010. With

market weakness expected ahead and excess inventories well above needed

levels, we are lowering our '09 EPS estimate to $0.25 from $2.25, but raise '10's to

$2.50 from $2.40. Applying 10X our forward 2010 EPS estimate, we are maintaining

our 12-month target price at $25. /K. Leon-CPA

ARE YOU F*^KING KIDDING ME????????????

HE LOWERS HIS 2009 EARNINGS ESTIMATE(the basis for his $25 price target less than 24 hours earlier) from $2.25 to $0.25 and he UPGRADES MHK to HOLD from SELL???????????  And how the hell does he justify this????  By completely throwing out the basis from his price target just 24 hours earlier (if consistent and true to his logic, applying a 11.1X multiple to his new 2009 earnings estimate would yield about a $3 dollar price target and somewhat directionally consistent with Moody's downgrade Senior Debt rating to junk) do you think he just increase his PE multiple???

BUT NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

This sly dog jumps to 2010 becusue he just bent over investors with his 2009 earnings projection and has to figure out somehow to justify the $25 price target he just put out LESS THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER!!!!!!!!!  And not only that, he INCREASES 2010 projections in order to attain his $25 number.

Fellow Fools, these are just the facts, take them as you wish.......I COULDN'T MAKE THIS UP IF I TRIED AND HAD 10 STRONG BLOODY'S IN ME.......if you really want to laugh, this is the exact same commentary I did with this same analyst on SPF as it skyrocketed all the way from over $30 to now $1 AFTER a $600 million cash injection.

NOW YOU KNOW WHY I CREATED ALSTRY AND ALSTRYNOMICS......SOMEONE HAS TO DO SOMETHING!!!!

EVIL TRIUMPHS WHEN THE GOOD DO NOTHING!!!!!!

I appolgize for the intensity, this just brought back some vivid memories and yes my Foolish friends, in case you had a shred of doubt, I am very short this company.

HOW NOBODY IN THE MAINSTREAM PRESS PICKS UP ON A STORY LIKE THIS SIMPLY ESCAPES ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 25, 2009 at 11:58 PM, alstry (35.94) wrote:

Some old Alstry posts involving S&P....Deja Vu all over again:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?bn=16994&tid=16551&mid=16551

For the past year I have been making fun of S&P for publishing blatently BS reports on SPF. Just to be fair, I publish my posts BEFORE SPF reports. S&P should be embarrassed about the crap it puts out and FIRE its analyst immediately for intentional misrepresentations or gross negligence.

Here is his latest backpeddling:

May 12, 2008
01:59 pm ET ... CORRECTION - S&P MAINTAINS HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON
SHARES OF STANDARD PACIFIC (SPF 2.98***): Q1 loss of $3.34 (earlier story said
$3.22) vs. $0.63 loss, including asset impairment charges of $192M and tax
valuation charges of $84M, is wider than our loss estimate. Homebuilding
revenues declined 46% year over year and was down 58% sequentially from Q4,
but the cancellation rate improved to 24% from year-ago 37%.We believe
additional write offs are possible with SPF's high concentration of communities in
California and southwest states.We are widening our '08 loss estimate to $5.20
from a $1.75 loss. Applying 0.5X price to book, we lower our target price to $6
from $7. /K.Leon-CPA

SPF LOST MORE MONEY IN Q1 THAN K.LEON WAS PREDICTING FOR THE FULL YEAR!!!!! NO KIDDING SHERLOCK.....YOUR COMPANY ONLY HAS A CCC RATING ON THE DEBT.

NOW THE QUESTION IS WHO HAS BEEN PAYING MR. LEON FOR PUTTING OUT HIS NONSENSE?

Here is another:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?bn=16994&tid=15492&mid=15492

 

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#2) On February 26, 2009 at 12:02 AM, alstry (35.94) wrote:

Here is an old CAPs blog from about a year ago.....

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=42993&t=01002130057764754273

S&P Misleading Investors????

Recs

13 FollowShareReport

March 25, 2008 – Comments (7) | ADD RELATED TICKERS

SPF recently disclosed it only had $293 million of cash left.  It has over $750 million of debt repayments, interest payments, land take down requirements, and JV remargin liability.  SPF is liquidating assets rapidly and its very possible that the current market value of its assets does not equal its outstanding debt.  It is currently losing hundreds of millions of dollars and the outlook is deteriorating.

It just unexpectedly replaced its CEO and appointed a new one with NO homebuilding experience.  The recently released CEO and the current CFO are being sued in a class action suit alleging providing misleading guidance.  The business is currently cash flow negative and it has the second largest exposure to JV liability of any publicly traded homebuilider.  Ironicly, the new CEO's name is JV Peterson.

With only $293 million of cash, rapidly dwindling assets, billions in debt, HUGE expenses ahead, and losing millions every week, S&P states the following:

3/24/2008  S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF STANDARD PACIFIC (SPF 4.93***): With SPF getting an extension of a waiver of non-compliance with its credit facility, lowered from $900M to $700M, and holding$293M in cash on hand at Mar. 21, we believe it has a betterchance of surviving the severe housing downturn. SPF also appointed a new CEO from its director ranks last week. We believe SPF's high lot inventories in Cal. will become attractive when the housing market turns around. Applying aprice-to-book slightly below 0.5X to a forward book value of $14.75, in line with small builders, we are maintaining our 12-month target price at $7. /K. Leon-CPA

'Better chance of surviving the housing downturn'???? SPF has violated its covenants 4X and is begging for a 5th waiver.  Who is this guy trying to deceive??? Only $293 million in cash and hundreds of millions more in spend obligations about to be shoved down its throat.....

"We believe SPF's high lot inventories in Cal. will become attractive when the  housing market turns around"?????????????????????  WTF?  CA is one of the most challenged markets in the country in terms of foreclosures and price declines.  S&P's own experts don't expect a turnaround for a long time.  SPF would  be lucky to get $0.15 cents on the dollar for its CA land if PHM's recent Sacramento land sale was any indication of current value.

"12 month price target of $7"?  You gotta be kidding.......is that before or after bankruptcy which some are speculating could be very very soon due to recent JV deterioration?

This anlayst should be called to task immediately for such a negligent/misleading report.  Who analyzes the analysts?  Does SPF pay S&P for the reports?  Is there a conflict of interest?  Why would an analyst write such a report that seems so contrary to open and obvious evidence?

Is S&P's work on SPF reflective of the quality of its overall analysis?

 

See Demon, I spread out the ranting beyond that housing honey Ivy Zellicous Zellman

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#3) On February 26, 2009 at 12:16 AM, SuperPicks (29.07) wrote:

There's the Alstry we know and love!

That positivealstry thing was a bit annoying!

Thanks for the continued education.

"EVIL TRIUMPHS WHEN THE GOOD DO NOTHING!!!!!! "

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#4) On February 26, 2009 at 12:36 AM, alstry (35.94) wrote:

You will enjoy this....

March 21, 2007
01:57 pm EDT... S&P REITERATES BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF STANDARD
PACIFIC (SPF 23.0****):

We are lowering our target price to $29 from $36, based
on our updated price-to-book analysis. On Mar. 1, SPF said net new home orders
for the first 2 months of Q1 were down 19%; a bit weaker than our estimates.We
believe that SPF is gaining traction in California (accounting for about 26% of
sales), but mainly via sales incentives. With our dimmer revenue outlook, we are
cutting our EPS estimates to $1.50 from $2.00 for '07, and to $2.40 from $3.15 for
'08. With shares trading below our estimated forward book value of near $29 a
share, we think valuation is attractive. /T.Smith-CFA

 

 

July 27, 2007
11:20 am EDT... S&P REITERATES HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF STANDARD
PACIFIC (SPF 14.73***): SPF reports Q2 loss of $2.56 (EPS of $0.35 before
impairments), vs. $1.44 EPS, which is wider than our $0.14 loss estimate.
Homebuilding revenues fell 31%; average home price fell 7%. Charges for
inventory impairments were $306 million.We project that a housing industry
slowdown will pressure results through 2008.We are widening our 2007 estimate
to a loss of $3.30 from a loss of $0.20, and cutting our 2008 EPS estimate to $0.60
from $1.00.We are lowering our 12-month target price to $15 from $22, based on
our updated price-to-book analysis
. /T.Smith-CFA

And then the following blog:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?bn=16994&tid=7029&mid=7029

September 24, 2007
09:17 am EDT... S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON STANDARD PACIFIC CORP.
SHARES (SPF 8.1***): SPF announces a public offering of $100M convertible
senior subordinated notes due 2012; the conversion price will be determined
when the offering occurs.We are encouraged by the company's plans to use the
proceeds to repay a portion of outstanding debt under a bank facility.We believe
the new convertible will give SPF more flexibility in managing its working capital
during the housing downturn. Our $11 target price is based on 0.5X price-to-book
value, in line with other small home builders. /K. Leon-CPA

<<<We are encouraged by the company's plans to use the
proceeds to repay a portion of outstanding debt under a bank facility.>>>

Let's get this straight, S&P is encouraged that SPF is creating a $100 milion dollar interest obligation paying down only $85 million in proceeds at a similar interest rate. And this is not even factoring the millions of newly minted shares to short. Is S&P working for the banks or providing objective analysis?

September 17, 2007
10:00 am EDT... S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF STANDARD
PACIFIC CORP. (SPF 8.2***): SPF says it has completed the amending of its credit
loan facilities with its banks, and it now has additional operating flexibility but a
slightly lower outstanding principal debt amount: $900M from $1B on a revolver,
and $225M from $250M on a Term Loan B.We believe the extension of the
revolver to 2011 should enable this small homebuilder to manage through the
housing downturn. Risks to our recommendation include an extended credit
crunch on home mortgages, asset impairments on land, contract cancellations
and significant incentives on home pricing to drive new sales. /K. Leon-CPA

<<<Risks to our recommendation include an extended credit
crunch on home mortgages, asset impairments on land, contract cancellations
and significant incentives on home pricing to drive new sales.>>>

The credit crunch is extending(as a matter of fact, even tigher standards are proposed for legislations), the company tells us more impairments are likely, cancellations are rising and incentives are increasing to drive even less sales.


Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Does that sound like there may be some risk in S&P's analysis?

Any poissible reduction again with price target?

We may know in a few weeks.

Time will tell.

___________________________________________

Time did tell with the following blog.................

S&P Price Target for SPF in last 6 months

36, 29, 22, 15, and now 11.

Pick a number and spin the wheel.

Now, the casino business, that is a cash flow positive operation.

Time will tell.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?bn=16994&tid=7026&mid=7026

Not much changed in six months.  I was blogging the facts consistently.  Today SPF trades around a buck!!!!!!!  Time certainly told.

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#5) On February 26, 2009 at 6:23 AM, InsuranceHunter (< 20) wrote:

Alstry-

 Where is the next MHK?

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#6) On February 26, 2009 at 8:26 AM, alstry (35.94) wrote:

Insurance,

Let's first land this plane on the water safely before we take off on another one.

When your adversary has the resources of S&P, you better make sure your gun is loaded to maintain self respect, self confidence, self reliance, and the ability to kick the snot out of them while they throw lots of nonsense your way.

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#7) On February 26, 2009 at 11:23 AM, devoish (97.61) wrote:

welcome back.

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#8) On February 26, 2009 at 12:44 PM, DemonDoug (78.36) wrote:

lol Al, SPF has got to be the worst stock I have ever seen, I still want everyone involved in that company to be thrown in jail with all the fraud perpetrated in conjuction with that company.

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#9) On February 26, 2009 at 12:56 PM, njbrown113 (< 20) wrote:

Did you really have to come back, it was nice when you were gone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The sun was out

Everybody had a smile on their face

Markets turned up for a bit

and now...................

Its raining and snowing

and the doom and gloom is back

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#10) On February 26, 2009 at 12:58 PM, InsuranceHunter (< 20) wrote:

Capiche.  If the S&P can claw its way back to 850 (50dma) we will have many good shorting opps.  Not sure she has the gas to get back to that area.  Keeping my DIA short on as a hedge while swinging a few longs.

 

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