Is SourceForge (NASDAQ:LNUX) About to be Taken Private?
Yesterday's 8-k filing on behalf of Morris further confounds things. My guess is LNUX is about to be taken out and private...but for how much? If they are being taken private the scenario could be that traders on behalf of the acquiror are pushing down the stock in an attempt to steal the company. Arguably to put together their own deal with digg.com and then take the merged companies public when the market is hot again. Something is up because nothing makes sense. There is no reason to sell out now given LNUX's cash position, 32 million hits/month, double-digit and greater than industry average eCommerce growth by Thinkgeek.com, and the fact LNUX is arguably at a tipping point of significant sales and earnings growth (within 2-3 quarters)but the acquirors just may be privately pushing Neumei$ter into a lockup* agreement where the deal is done and approved by the Board before the non-insider shareholders know what hit them...(vs. non-insider shareholder value friendly and significantly precluding a bidding war). ??? again, follow the money...LNUX will be announcing q4 and fy 2008 earnings by the end of August where it is assumed this stock will continue to see downward pressure on its price given LNUX is showing earnings of $656k ($.0096 eps) applicable to common shares for its first 3 fiscal 2008 quarters. Morris has indicated -$.01 for q4 +- $.01. So LNUX is looking at $0.00 eps for fy2008. Average Analyst estimate for fy2008 ending 7/2008 is $.05. What do you think will happen when this is announced given perception is reality?
* A contractual offer of stock made by a takeover target to the suitor deemed most acceptable to management. A lockup agreement tends to discourage unwanted suitors, but it may penalize the target firm's stockholders because it eliminates counteroffers. Also called crown jewel lockup agreement.
6/4 LNUX Commentary
6/12 Commentary on Stanford Research