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alstry (35.36)

Is the DPRESSION HERE?????

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April 16, 2009 – Comments (7)

Gannett 1Q classified ad revs DROP 46.5%

U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 172,000 to 6.02 million

U.S. housing starts down 48% in past year; permits down 45%

General Growth Properties files for bankruptcy protection

Harley-Davidson sees more job cuts

Alstry gets a lot of heat for his 30-50% unemployment prediction.  When he started blogging, published unemployment rates were at about 6% and now they are over 16% per the Department of Labor U6 figures.

In the just past few days.....from the closing of GM dealerships, to BestBuy, to Michelin Tire, to Harley Davidson, to LA School Teachers and more.......we are looking at tens of thousands of people losing their jobs in upcoming months on top of the millions that have lost their jobs in the past few months........and these are job losses from a handful of companies that we know about.

My question to CAPS members.....at what unemployment rate will our nation start to face some serious social and economic consequences?  20%......25%........30%.................35%??????

 

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 16, 2009 at 10:13 AM, Gemini846 (49.78) wrote:

As I understand it the term "Great Depression" wasn't coined until 1934 well after it began.

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#2) On April 16, 2009 at 10:15 AM, alstry (35.36) wrote:

Remember, the generally accepted definition of a D-pression is a 10% drop in GDP from peak to trough.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The International Air Transport Association said Thursday the number of international passengers fell 9.6% in February, or 6% when adjusting for Leap Year. Premium, or business-class traffic plunged 21% for the month following a 16.7% decline in January, and economy-class passengers dipped 8.3% compared to 4.7% in January, the trade group said. "Adjusting for the impact of the extra day in February last year shows that travel demand is still declining across all segments, though the slower decline in economy travel suggests that business passengers continue to trade down to cheaper seats at the back of the aircraft," IATA said.

We know that autos and housing is in a depression.  Now that healthcare is likely to be the next shoe to drop......any thoughts where this is going????

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#3) On April 16, 2009 at 10:23 AM, TMFDeej (99.41) wrote:

A few quick corrections:

When you started blogging at the beginning of February 2008, Alsty, U6 was at nearly 10% (9.5% to be exact), not 6%.

Also this morning's weekly jobless claims number was 162,000, not 172,000...not that it makes a difference.  I agree that unemployment is headed higher, but the 30% to 50% number that you sensationally predict is probably way off. 

It makes sense to make completely wild predictions though.  If you predict something that's more outrageous than anyone else and the 0.00001% chance that it comes true actually happens you look like an absolute genius.  If not, you are just a faceless name on the Internet and you have nothing to lose.

It's ashame, too because your over the top predictions and abrasive writing style, using all caps, referring to yourself in the third person, repetitive posts, etc... obscure what actually could be some valuable information.  You seem like a smart person who has an idea of what is going on, but you never actually provide any useful investment advice on what is an investment site.

Prepare, never fear...whatever that means because you never really provide any practical advice on how to prepare.  In your opinion, should investors short the market?  If so how, ETFs, individual companies?  Should they buy gold.  Your blogs would be a lot better if you changed it up and provided useful information rather than repeating that the sky is falling until you're blue in the face and everyone else is sick of it.

I'm not sure why I bothered to read this or post, but those are my $0.02 FWIW.

Deej

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#4) On April 16, 2009 at 10:37 AM, TMFDeej (99.41) wrote:

Correection to my correction ;).  I thought that you were talking about this morning's weekly jobless claims number of 610,000.  That's what happens when I get up at 5 AM for work.  Need more coffee.

Either way, the jobs picture is bad and getting worse, just not 30% to 50% worse.

Deej

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#5) On April 16, 2009 at 10:52 AM, alstry (35.36) wrote:

Deej,

I can't call you a idiot because I promised Jake I would never personally attack another player again...even a TMF player....so I will simply refer to you as a Foolish Fool in the most affectionate of terms as I would a young child who simply is naive.

I actually started blogging before FEB 2008 but I came to Fool at that time frame.  To remain consistent and fair, in March of 2008, the U6 inemployment rate was 9.1% and my guess is that in February it was in the eights somewhere.....so in about a year...U6 unemployment has doubled.....that is simply a fact.

Now job losses are accellerating, another FACT you simply can't argue with, so if U6 simply doubles again, we will be at OVER 30% unemployment and my projections won't be that "wild...."

Based on today's numbers, we are losing over 600,000 jobs per week, actually the number is more, but let's keep it at 600K since I like to be conservative in my projections.  If we maintain my conservate rate over the next year.....OVER 30,000,000 ADDITIONAL jobs will be lost.

What do you think the unemployment rate will be then you Foolish Fool???????

WE ARE LOSING OVER 600K JOBS PER WEEK......what about that number don't you understand??????

As far as your 162 vs. 172....I simply cut and pasted a MarketWatch headline.....but we can both agree that it practically is a difference without a distinction.

And as far as how my blog would be better, my blog simply reports the facts and makes reasonable conclusions based on those facts, anyone who reads my blog with any regularity knows I have indicated the following:

1.  Save at least 2 years of living expenses in cash.

2.  Pay off debt.

3.  Purchase some metal if you think that is a satisfactory hedge against a complete economic breakdown...at this point, I am still unsure how metal will play out in such an environment...but I guess I would rather have it than not.

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#6) On April 16, 2009 at 11:00 AM, alstry (35.36) wrote:

Deej,

Since you have attacked me and not answered my question....let's go back to the question.....since the unemloyment rate is accellerating and the data at least is trending towards my projection....at what level of unemployment you think that we will have serious social and economic consequences??????

20%......25%.............30%........................................40%????

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#7) On April 16, 2009 at 12:36 PM, SolarisKing (24.59) wrote:

I've said it before and i'll say it again. I LOVE ALSTRY!

Alstry screams "Get out of the way of the train!" and folks say,"Why don't you try using a nicer tone of voice?".

Whether or not we get to 30% U6 or not is irrelavant. If we only reach 25%, THE JOBS YOU The truth is, we are in a whole new can of worms. They dug a hole and forgot to bring a ladder, and now we are stuck. America owes more money than it's worth, and China has it all comin'. 

   Americans are almost all spoiled and not worth hiring. I have been in labor managment of one form or another most of my 30 year carrer, and it is GENERALLY accepted that you should hire anybody but americans. Anybody. 

   The reason that i (and i assume alstry also) give no advice, is cause there is none. The SYSTEM that we work with/against is just nor fair, and they change the rules in the middle of the night, for the sole purpose of making themselves a profit, at the expense of your nest egg. Sure, some of you geniuses might get lucky, but that is not advice for the average Joe.

   Ny advice is, go back in time 20 years, and learn how to farm. Just jokin' (sorta). 

    Of course, i stink at stocks, so you should not listen to me, but OTOH alstry seems to know what he's talking about.

PS, i also read and rec almost all of Deej's post.

PPSS, asltry, did you mistakenly write depression with a DP, or was that innuendo?

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