dragonLZ (99.34)

Is The Volume Story trying to tell us something...?

March 12, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BPOP

I know what you are thinking.

You are thinking The Volume Story is telling us that portfolio of 10 stocks mentioned in The Volume Story post (as big future winners) is beating the pants off the S&P 500.

But no, I don't really think that's it. Even though, The Volume Story stocks are indeed beating the pants off the S&P.

Since the Volume Story was posted back at the end of September of 2009, the portfolio of those 10 stocks is up 31.1% (if same amount of money invested in each stock).

Once again: that’s 31.1% in five and a half months.

The S&P's return during the same time frame: 10%. Not bad, not bad, but not quite as good as the Volume Story stocks.

Let’s now quickly take a look at the individual returns for each Volume Story stock:

1.       GCI         $15.82 (today’s price)     $9.38 (price when Volume Story was posted)     Return:   68.7%

2.       CENX     $14.95 (now)      $9.46 (then)       Return:   58.0%

3.       TCK        $40.63 (now)      $26.00 (then)     Return:   56.3%

4.       FITB       $13.32                   $9.59                     Return:   38.9%

5.       GNW     $16.42                   $11.87                   Return:   38.3%

6.       HWD      $10.16                   $8.09                     Return:   25.6%

7.       CNO       $6.28                     $5.04                     Return:   24.6%

8.       LVS         $19.66                   $17.60                   Return:   11.7%

9.       GTN       $2.55                     $2.38                     Return:    7.1%

10.   BPOP     $2.33                     $2.75                     Return:   - 15.3%

So, do you see what I’m seeing (hint: look at BPOP)?

I know, I know. Majority of you now thinks “Yeah, I see. BPOP sucks.”

But no, my Fools, that wouldn’t be a correct answer, if you ask me.

What I see is a stock that just fell behind a little, but a stock that’s really, really cheap comparing to other Volume Story stocks. And a stock that's ready to take off.

In order to just catch up with the 10% return of the S&P, BPOP would have to get to $3.03, which is a 30% gain from today’s $2.33 price.

So, in short, I think The Volume Story is telling us that BPOP is a good stock for people who are looking for easy 30% return. It's that simple.

Possibly 50%, if BPOP catches up with the average 30% return of the whole Volume Story portfolio.

You agree or disagree? Can it be this simple? I don't know. All I know is the Volume Story seems to be working...

Disclaimer# 1: On Monday, I picked up another 600 shares of BPOP at $2.19.

Disclaimer# 2: I have a feeling by the time S&P gets to 25% return, The Volume Story stocks will get to 100%...

Disclaimer# 3: I’m not a very smart person…