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alstry (36.49)

Is this INFLATION????

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December 18, 2008 – Comments (8)

Oil futures tumble 10% to end below $37 a barrel

FedEx to Cut Salaries

More California Towns Face Bankruptcy

Orderly bankruptcy an option for auto firms: White House

Remember this blog a few days ago......   http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=118141&t=01002130057764754273

My friends, when will you guys learn????......sometimes this is just not enough........

Obama to Keep Stimulus Under $1 Trillion

 

For those of you that studied economics......you may want to focus on some practical accounting.

Accounting + Owning a business + The School of Hard Knocks + Some Heavy Drinking = Alstrynomics...........far more practical and insightful than what you learn in school.

For a little evidence.......

Lennar narrows loss, but CEO says housing in 'downward spiral'

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury.....does a "downward spiral" sound like inflation to you??????? 

Demon....your witness.

 

 

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 18, 2008 at 4:20 PM, TMFRosetint (95.40) wrote:

Alstry, good god do you have no life? You post like five articles a day.

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#2) On December 18, 2008 at 4:23 PM, SuperPicks (29.20) wrote:

No better way to game the economy by fooling everyone that inflation is perpetual and as long as its in the hands of the Fed, will continue.

By these means, this is exactly how the Feds & the largest of the banking cartel, can consolidate power & take over entire industries and countries by shattering all these expectations from the past decade (written into numerous contracts commerical, leases, etc) and introducing a deflationary shock. 

In the end, devising these booms & busts consolidates industries/countries into fewer, favorable hands and the rest, more relient on debt. 

Anyone know what debt levels were for companies in 1800s?

How about in the 1910s?  How does that compare to the 1920s?

& I wonder how all of the above compare to debt levels of companies today. 

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#3) On December 18, 2008 at 4:47 PM, snakeyd (< 20) wrote:

Spoke with people from 2 different major freight companies and the number being tossed around is about a 12% drop in freight volume frrom a year ago.  I wonder how that will show in the GDP?

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#4) On December 18, 2008 at 4:48 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.

Thomas Jefferson, Letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802)

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#5) On December 18, 2008 at 5:11 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.14) wrote:

I have said my peace with respect to the USD. Keep in mind that you can have inflationary price increases within an otherwise deflationary environment if you have a currency crisis! Even if losses from toxic leveraged assets manage to outpace the printing press and continue to keep money velocity down, inflation can still emerge as the USD is traded downward against other fiat currencies in a race to escape a technically broken USD backed by a an insurmountable mountain of debt. Commodities, which as a group dictate the underpinnings of consumer prices (our measure of inflation), will rise against the dollar's decline. I see oil's move below $40 as highly unsustainable, creating the possibility for a kickback rally

Besides, the Fed just announced Tuesday that it:

"would print as much money as necessary to revive the frozen credit markets and fight what is shaping up as the nation’s worst economic downturn since World War II.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=120990&t=01006124249416869148

The stage is being set for Weimar-style hyperinflation brought about by devaluation of the USD against the other USDX fiat currencies and by renewed geopolitical tensions as nations continue to vie for access to resources. A U.S. with a rapidly declining dollar is likely to flex its muscles to some extent to ensure accessas the Asian industrial machine begins to regroup.

Thankfully, I know of one investment that will rise in 2009 regardless of whether deflation or inflation wins out for the coming year: Got Gold?

Gold will go to $2,000 and beyond before this is all over. I see no way that such a level can be avoided given all the above.

Anyone else... your witness. :)

Fool on!

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#6) On December 18, 2008 at 5:26 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

Sinchiruna,

Your argument, although cogent and well thought out, is based on speculation and circumstantial evidence......mine on the other hand is a treatise of telling travasties leading to a trail towards total tanking.

As an aside, do you really think that other nations are going to let America piss away its currency without taking appropriate counter measures????  We are not talking about some banana republic.

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#7) On December 18, 2008 at 6:15 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.14) wrote:

Inflationary and deflationary epectations are, by nature, equally speculative, dear Watson. :) What we have in a given moment does not define a trend, and anything could change at the drop of a hat when you're in unchartered territory like this. Our bodies of evidence, likewise, are equally circumstanctial. The question becomes, which scenario does a plurality of the evidence support.

What counter-measures do you propose other nations take to prop up the dollar? That would amount to a voluntary depression for the responding entity/ies. If currencies could simply be managed no matter what stuctural weaknesses are imposed by reckless spending and accelerating debt burdens, then we would lack the ample histories of failed fiat currencies through the ages..

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#8) On December 18, 2008 at 6:26 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

There  are a  variety of counter measures such as voluntary devaluation ala Russia or repudiation like Equador, or trade barriers........we could go on and on all the way up to military entanglements(what do you think would happen to the dollar with a major miltary conflict......was that a Black Swan primping by us???).

Oil dropping 59% in one year is not speculative....it is direct evidence.  So is companies cutting salaries.  So is hotels cutting rates.  So is airlines cutting fares.  So is crashing house prices and  falling property taxes and  declining state revenues.

A politician saying he is  going to do something????  Doesn't that sound like a speculation upon a speculation to you????

 

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