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goldminingXpert (29.43)

Is this the beginning of a return to reality?

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January 28, 2010 – Comments (49)

Or just another headfake before the bulls try to prop the market higher once more? We know the Dow will make a new low within the next 6-12 months, it's just a question of when the bulls give up the fight and let gravity work its magic. Two things I do know, the EUR/USD under 1.40 (soaring dollar) and technology (thanks QCOM) getting smashed will eventually be a problem once bulls get their heads out of the sand. I'm looking forward to having more thoughtful discussion here at CAPS once it becomes acceptable to be a bear again.

49 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 28, 2010 at 11:29 AM, RainierMan (78.05) wrote:

Doh! GoldminingXpert made a bearish comment! Sheesh, now we're going way up again.

I'm just kidding. I enjoy your market comments (and don't think you should go into hiding) and definitely see your point (as made in previous bearish blogs).

BUT, when the bears come out, it has often meant we're headed up. We'll see this time, eh.

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#2) On January 28, 2010 at 11:32 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey GMX, good to see you man :)

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#3) On January 28, 2010 at 11:42 AM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

Just doing my part to support Dow 10,000. Bulls need all the help they can get today.

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#4) On January 28, 2010 at 11:45 AM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

Bullish sentiment still seems very high.  Many very vocal bears have tempered their arguments, which is starting to worry me.  You read articles about the possibility of a crash, but then the market pulls back 5% and all the media is saying it was overdone, and the market should bounce back strong, etc...  I don't think we'll see recent highs again for a while...don't know if the market will actually crash, but at best, I'd bet on relatively flat trading for quite a while...  When you say new low, are you talking about below March lows?

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#5) On January 28, 2010 at 11:54 AM, kdakota630 (29.50) wrote:

I'm biding my time waiting for the downturn to happen during the 3rd quarter of 2010.  We still might see the Dow break 11,000.

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#6) On January 28, 2010 at 11:57 AM, cbwang888 (25.80) wrote:

I think banks want to the market to tank because

1. They had put cash bonus into their pockets. So making cash the king will help them

2. Hold main street hostage to stop talking of putting up bank trading limit

3. Push the market down so free and easy money can keep coming into their pocket from Fed

 

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#7) On January 28, 2010 at 11:57 AM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

We know the Dow will make a new low within the next 6-12 months

Do we "know" this?  The same way we "knew" the market was going to plunge a year ago?  Even a broken clock is right twice a day, so maybe now is your time.  I'm not trying to be a douche and run you off again or anything, I just get really fed up with the psychic qualities of people.  Especially investors. 

It's perfectly acceptable to be a bear, gmx.  But whether it's bearish or bullish, anybody who says "This is going to happen, for sure, I KNOW it" gets the same amount of respect from me.

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#8) On January 28, 2010 at 12:11 PM, outoffocus (22.84) wrote:

Whoa. I just seen a ghost.  Welcome Back GMX.  You should see Binves post about the bears coming out of hibernation.

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#9) On January 28, 2010 at 12:18 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

Nice to see you back, GMX.  However, I do think you are out a few weeks too early...

As I said here, I expected the market to finish lower this week, but then we'll go up again. Just another curveball.

After moving up and down for a couple of weeks, market will start its first serious slide around March 1st (give or take two days), and will last until 4/26/10 (give or take two days).

Just my opinion...

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#10) On January 28, 2010 at 12:55 PM, BuffetsMentor (23.21) wrote:

how the hell did you come up with 4/26/10

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#11) On January 28, 2010 at 1:04 PM, martinfool (< 20) wrote:

^^^  Actually, that's a mistake.  It's gonna be 4/28.  We just know.

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#12) On January 28, 2010 at 1:18 PM, Option1307 (29.69) wrote:

Glad to see you're still alive, hope school is going well GMX!

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#13) On January 28, 2010 at 1:18 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

Prediction:  The market will now trade within 10% of 10,000 for the foreseeable future.  The will be no huge swings in either direction, and there will NOT be a new low (lower than March), because the March lows were a result of over-exhuberance, triggered short-selling and for those with hoards of cash on the sidelines, a perfect set-up for huge profits.

We are at the flat line of the square-root shaped "recovery."  The stock markets recover first as businesses get sensible and cut the fat, lower overhead, utilize technology, etc,... then the job markets make a slow, gradual recovery as businesses use a meger portion of their increased profits to hire and improve their revenue as well.

If you're waiting for another foray into the March lows, you'll be out of the markets for another decade.

Fool on!

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#14) On January 28, 2010 at 1:58 PM, ChrisGraley (29.69) wrote:

09/09/09

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#15) On January 28, 2010 at 2:17 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

If you're waiting for another foray into the March lows, you'll be out of the markets for another decade.

Fool on!

If we can't make lows during this economic catatrosphe, we'll never make new lows. If the complete and utter insolvency of our  banking system combined with the complete and utter financial and political bankruptcy of our government can't crash stocks, nothing will.

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#16) On January 28, 2010 at 2:22 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.26) wrote:

It was never unacceptable to be a bear, but it is unacceptable to giving worthless advice.  I'm a huge bear.

Remember this blog post about me the dangers of following floridabuilder

So when is Meritage going bankrupt? 

By the way I am just giving you a hard time.  I think you are a valuable member of CAPS.  A lot of people lost money shorting builders and so I don't like posts that make it look like a sure thing betting against them.  The game has changed significantly in homebuilding, they are dangerous stocks to short today.

Even if you don't say short builder stocks, people are stupid and if a top caps player is saying that all builder stocks are going under, etc... people think it is a sure thing.

I'm trying to help the lowest IQ fools here by avoiding the builder stock short. 

welcome back

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#17) On January 28, 2010 at 2:57 PM, staffier (79.24) wrote:

It is, and always has been, perfectly "acceptable to be a bear."  If you're wondering why certain people bash you, perhaps it has more to do with the fact that you're lacking even a single 1-bagger in your ridiculously long list of picks?  It's hard to take a person who claims Wells Fargo is heading for bankruptcy seriously. 

But hey, I'm looking forward to another wave of 5+ year thumbs-down picks that you'll end after a few days as soon as their score turns positive.  Not that I'm accusing you of juicing your numbers or anything...

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#18) On January 28, 2010 at 3:41 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

OK, let me too give GMX a hard time with this here.

Not because here is a bear, but because of the comment he made above:

If we can't make lows during this economic catatrosphe, we'll never make new lows. If the complete and utter insolvency of our  banking system combined with the complete and utter financial and political bankruptcy of our government can't crash stocks, nothing will.

 

GMX, Mr. Market is a forward-looking fella.

What you are talking about is happening NOW. That's exactly why bears have a hard time determining when is the time to leave the party (and keep saying "things are still looking bad", "nothing has changed for the better", etc.).

No different with bulls. They also get caught with their pants down as they think their party will last forever ("economy is still booming", "things are looking great", "businesses are still hiring left and right", ...).

When the things start happening, and everybody knows about them (even CNBC), then it's too late. The party's over and the hung-over headache hits...

p.s. Mr. Market is a tricky S.O.B... That's also the answer to people who are wondering how do I know about 4/26.

Btw., I know the guy... :) 

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#19) On January 28, 2010 at 6:52 PM, semper77 (32.85) wrote:

Welcome back GMX, I'm also in the bear camp. And though in the past, I've thought you to be a touch early on calls like this, I think you're spot on with this one. I've been short since S&P 1108 and I think I will be for some time to come. I don't know that I'd stay short expecting brand new lows, but certainly I'm expecting the 25% on the S&P to be down.

Great to have you back!

 

~Semper

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#20) On January 28, 2010 at 8:32 PM, rexlove (99.45) wrote:

Wow - a 5% pullback and GMX comes out of his cave. Welcome back GMX. We bulls have been screwing everything up for you - haven't we? It makes me wonder who all these bulls are. Haven't retail investors been pulling out of the stock market and not in? Maybe its all these hedge fund managers trading amongst themselves. Who knows. 

While not totally bullish at this point - I am not expecting anything coming close to the March 2008 lows. A 10% correction would be nice - I took on a heavy cash position 2-3 weeks ago and am waiting to jump back in. 

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#21) On January 28, 2010 at 10:39 PM, tonylogan1 (27.84) wrote:

GMX and FB coming back. good fun.

p.s. GMX I am still annoyed

I don't forsee new lows being hit. If it does, I bet it takes a long time.

There should be a lot of money this time around that tries to put money in as we would approach the lows... all those people that "missed" making money the last time around who will not be fooled again.

I pulled my parent and parent in laws money out of the market 2 years ago, and I am planning to start putting 1% back in each month for the next 3 years as they re-approach a target ~40% equity position.

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#22) On January 29, 2010 at 3:06 AM, SolarisKing (35.39) wrote:

I know that sentiment is (often) a contratian indicator, but the thing about this being different is.. . . well, that this time is different.

Last year, there was little (recent) precedent for what happened. Now, folks KNOW (more or less) that MANY things are wrong.

I'm not afraid right now of mister market, but the only thing that i see that could keep this afloat forever would be fraud, and HFT (both of which are here to stay, so it is possible i guess).

One or two more major defaults (greece?) and the sh*t could seriously hit the fan. China's recent actions triggered this recent pullback, and it wasn't even really 'bad news'. Wait till some REAL bad news hits.

I mostly favor the sideways trading theory, but i see 950 as plausible, and lower as possible, even without an event like a sovereign default.

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#23) On January 29, 2010 at 4:29 AM, awallejr (85.41) wrote:

A needed market correction and the bears come out of hiding.  Let's see how your predictions of DOW 5000 by this summer or the bankruptcy of WFC this year pan out.  When you actually move out of a dorm room and get a fulltime job in the industry I might take you more seriously.  Otherwise all you do is hurt people.  You hurt people because they think you know what you are talking about but all you are really interested in, and at your age rightfully so, are girls.

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#24) On January 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM, floridabuilder2 (99.26) wrote:

tony,

I am one of the people who is sitting on the sidelines and going to buy piecemeal when we hit new lows.  The banking system is not going to collapse.  The govt is not forcing the top 5 banks that control over 50% of all banking assets to mark to market.  Whining about how the gov't and banks are hiding bad assets does nothing.  It is what it is and that means inflation or zombie economy for a while.

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#25) On January 29, 2010 at 3:15 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

"You hurt people because they think you know what you are talking about but all you are really interested in, and at your age rightfully so, are girls."

You are full of mierda.

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#26) On January 29, 2010 at 3:18 PM, kdakota630 (29.50) wrote:

LOL!

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#27) On January 29, 2010 at 3:41 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

When I posted S&P will end the day in red this morning, DOW was up 70 points, S&P up 5 points, and the headlines still read: Stocks soar on GDP data

But I knew there is no way my friend MR. M is going to let me down. Since my post, DOW lost 100 points and S&P lost 15.

But that was easy part. Ending higher on Feb. 12 is the tough one. Doable though. Right Mr. M? :)

Good Luck All!

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#28) On January 29, 2010 at 3:58 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised if we rally for the next two weeks or so. Assuming this is wave 1 of a new bear market, the wave 2 correction should take a little bit to play out.

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#29) On January 29, 2010 at 9:32 PM, awallejr (85.41) wrote:

"You are full of mierda."

You might want to look in the mirror.  It was you who on a daily basis back in March kept saying how the market must crash  and after several months of gains you finally gave up.  And it was you who has predicted that the market will hit 5,000 by summer of this year despite the fact that the catalysts for fall '08 and winter '09 crashes are no longer present. And when given an opportunity to make a pick for the Allstar portfolio it was you who picked a clear loser. 

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#30) On January 30, 2010 at 1:46 AM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

The price of oil hasn't crashed yet... WNR will still work out. I wouldn't rule out Dow 5,000. To be fair, I've been calling for the market to crater since I joined here, so I do get some credit for being right throughout 2008 and the beginning of 2009 along with the humble pie I've had to eat for the rest of 2009...

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#31) On January 30, 2010 at 2:00 AM, GenericInvestor (88.88) wrote:

GMX you are a huge LOSER do everyone a favor and leave. nobody likes you, not even virtually.

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#32) On January 30, 2010 at 2:00 AM, GenericInvestor (88.88) wrote:

You lost me so much money on WNR my wife left me for another man and my kids hate me. You, GMX, literally ruined my life.

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#33) On January 30, 2010 at 2:09 AM, ozzfan1317 (81.83) wrote:

Welcome back GMX not saying we are out of the woods but I think our lows were in march. By years end my guess is dow 12,000

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#34) On January 30, 2010 at 2:29 AM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

GenericInvestor -- Speak for yourself. Blame yourself. If your wife left you over money, count you blessings, but I suspect it had to do with more than your picking prowess.
  Welcome back GMX. +1 rec.

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#35) On January 30, 2010 at 2:41 AM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

Never invest money you can't afford to lose... that said, if you haven't sold, don't abandon WNR. The thesis is unchanged (falling oil price will lead to fattening crack spreads.) From August of '08 to January of '09 the stock went from 6 to 16 on that play. Now it appears oil is trending back down and WNR should make a similar move if history is any guide.

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#36) On January 30, 2010 at 3:04 AM, SolarisKing (35.39) wrote:

Thank you GMX for that explanation of your WNR call.

Humble pie has a unique flavor, but it is full of nutrition for growing boys!

 

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#37) On January 30, 2010 at 3:32 AM, Lienbuster (94.22) wrote:

Just a thought, but what if the March lows are viewed not as an overreaction but as the result of support resulting from positive inertia left in the economy.

Now consider what will happen if a correction tests those levels now.

 

 

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#38) On January 30, 2010 at 12:45 PM, GenericInvestor (88.88) wrote:

Yeah, easy for you guys to make fun of me. I lost my children's college funds because of this guy. I'm bankrupt, paying alimony to a cheating wife and she got my kids to hate me.

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#39) On January 30, 2010 at 2:15 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

Thanks for coming back. #1 sign we're at the bottom again. I should have known that once your January puts you were talking about in August all expired worthless that the market would have tanked a fair amount just to show you how karma works.

Don't tell me that you're "all in" puts again?

"Never invest money you can't afford to lose" was the smartest thing you said here. I'm guessing you learned that lesson the hard way.

 

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#40) On January 30, 2010 at 2:18 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

Oh and I guess you are breathing a bit easier because your "clients" aren't quite ready to lynch you over the DZZ you bought for them a few months ago. I guess they are only losing what? 20-30% now?

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#41) On January 30, 2010 at 6:10 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

I could lose the money I lost. And I own very little in the way of puts at the moment. I'm a young guy who took a big swing and whiffed. Lesson is learned, tuition is paid, and I've moved on. Just more inspiration to get a good job when I graduate.

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#42) On January 30, 2010 at 6:37 PM, SolarisKing (35.39) wrote:

And i can see that the experience has made you stronger, and more well rounded.

:)

 

GenericInvestor (58.09), there are 100+ bigmouths on this site, why put all your money on one?  That shows poor  decision making skills.
   Your attempt to blame one person for your bad decision making skills shows lack of charachter.
  Looked at through those filters. . . . perhaps. . . .

Na, some things are better off unsaid.

 I barely know GMX but i feel sure that if you had asked him "should i put my kids college on WNR" he would have said something like; "no".

There are plenty of blogs on how for a greenhorn to invest a small amount, but to get contemporary views you could start another one. OR, you could hang around here .. . . .. ..

 

Na, some things are better off unsaid.

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#43) On January 30, 2010 at 9:31 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

Yeah, easy for you guys to make fun of me. I lost my children's college funds because of this guy. I'm bankrupt, paying alimony to a cheating wife and she got my kids to hate me.

What you should do now is take a second mortgage or borrow money from friends and family. GMX says WNR will still work out. Once you get rich off WNR, wife and kids will be back and will love you once again. You don't have to thank me for the tip. Investors helping investors is what this site is all about... :)

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#44) On January 31, 2010 at 5:52 AM, awallejr (85.41) wrote:

"The price of oil hasn't crashed yet."

And why should it?  Because your Ouiji board says so?. China's automobile industry alone is expected to grow 5 fold.  GS and MS both advise oil to continue to rise over the years.  Inflation is expected to rear its ugly head and the dollar is expected to continue to weaken.  But some college kid says oil will crash so it must.

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#45) On January 31, 2010 at 6:04 AM, awallejr (85.41) wrote:

"Lesson is learned"

Fair enough if sincere.

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#46) On February 01, 2010 at 1:21 PM, belfairinvestor (29.12) wrote:

GenericInvestor (58.09)

Maybe a better investment lies with a Nigerian General's widow. They claim amazing returns for little investment. Might be right up your alley.

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#47) On February 01, 2010 at 8:45 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

All joking aside, I think WNR will have a >20% jump this week. JMO. Not a tip for Generic (nor Brand Name) Investors.

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#48) On February 02, 2010 at 1:17 AM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

#41 - Good for you. Being humbled is the first step to making real money. Back in my first year in 2003 I made over 100% in 9 months. The following three years I underperformed the market until  the gains I made in year 1 were all gone (on a much larger capital base of course). My head was big enough in 2003 and I didn't have the disadvantage of hundreds of goofs twice my age e-praising me as some sort investing god either. What I learned in those years prior helped me not to destroy myself or go insane in 2008 as all the crap that I knew was going down took all my commodity plays with them and my meager put gains didn't make up very much.

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#49) On February 03, 2010 at 9:47 PM, ttboydxb (28.70) wrote:

Welcome back GMX....  Like reading your thoughts, they add to the overall flavour of the board.

 

As for the guy who lost his wife and kids + college funds, not sure what's worse, that actually happening, or him posting it for everyone to know.  Shoot, if my better half wagered everything we had because of a tip she got on a website like this, I would leave her as well! Sorry might sound harsh but it's the truth.  I agree with the Nigerian General's Widow investment thesis, heard there's a good return on those.  Just tell the ex that it'll pan out because you read it on one of GMX's posts, and I'm sure she'll be back on the asap.

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