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alstry (36.10)

Is War The Option?

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November 14, 2009 – Comments (11)

Absent Defense.....pretty much every sector in America's economy is contracting rapidly.

Tax receipts were DOWN 18% despite governments' running a $2 Trillion dollar deficit. 

It is clear that the bankers are cutting off credit to the private sector causing massive failures, loan defaults and slowing private sector revenues.   The public sector is only functioning on life support by printing.

The business shut downs, job losses, and wage cuts have really accellerated in the past few months.

Very few companies are hiring as more and more stay unemployed for longer and longer periods of time.

If this trend continues much longer, our revenue base will simply be too low to sustain our massive infastructure.

We are already seeing office buildings shut down and remain totally vacant, shopping centers are becoming ghost malls, banks are closing branches across the nation, cites, counties, and states have just started implementing massive cut backs, and now the Federal Government is starting the bang the drums.

Unless we restructure debt, there is no doubt that most of America as we know it will shut down simply because declining revenues will not be able to service debt and cover expenses simultaneously.  $10,000 per year health insurance bills was fine when money was flowing......but it is fast becoming most of the income of millions of families across the nation....and with more and more going uninsured, health care as we know it is shutting down due to declining revenues.

None of this is hard to see........it is what mathematically happens to an overleveraged domestic consumer economy that is dependent on credit to function.  If you cut off credit, the accumulated outstanding debt suffocates cash flow and shuts down the economy.   If you simply bailout the banks and permit them to foreclose on a debt burden that is mathematically impossible to payback without massive credit being simultaneously injected into the economy.

If you wanted to solve the problem, simply relieve the debt burden on the population as we did with the banks.  But if you only bail out the banks and not the private sector, the private sector dies and the banks survive.

It is clear that this is the policy of government to shut down the economy now....often this happens in preparation for war.  In order to get people ready for war, there's a need to be in the appropriate mental state and a willingness to sacrifice everything to survive.

Do you think Donner, or Deej, or FloridaBuilder would be willing to give up everything if they we sitting fat and happy around the pool with a happy outlook toward the future....nor would any other sane human being.  During periods of history where massive economic/social change was ready to take place, war has always been the most efficient way to effect the change.

It is clear that government is setting the stage for the change.....it is why Buffett went all in with the railroad, it is why politicians are allowing their nation to suffer while the bankers get fat(normally the bankers suffer along side their customers).  Your people must suffer to segway into the next phase.

This is not about cycle, but change.....a change you can believe in.

The funny part is many of the low level hedgie type finance guys are thinking this is simply a wealth transfer.....this is the furtherest thing from reality.  It is a paradigm shift, and many of them will eventually be shifted out of the pardigm as well while the chosen ones remain silent.

The stage is being set as we hear about more terrorist medical doctor desk jockey types shooting up dozens of military personal with a .357 and an automatic 9 mm in a manner that would make James Bond and Clint Eastwood look incompetent.....wtf, who is this terrorist assassin treating our soldiers and were those military people  who were trained to take fire just sitting there as he put one gun down to reload the other????  It takes a few seconds to reload, but just one to take a man down.

You know the drum beat is getting louder as our economy is getting softer.  This pattern of behavior is well documented in history for those who take the time to learn.  Obama is making the rounds.  Based on the rapid deterioration in the economy and rise of anger amongst our domestic population, it is likely the beginning is sooner than many think as you are told the recession is over.

When it's over, my guess is the future will be brighter for all........at this point, I have yet the fully grasp the nature and extent of the conflict....the only thing that seems more and more likely is that it will be very disruptive to our current economic/social structure and it is seemingly getting closer and closer.

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 14, 2009 at 11:45 AM, kirkydu (95.27) wrote:

The stage was set by Bush/Cheney Inc.  The Obama admin is having a hard time grasping and dealing with what a screwed up situation they inherited. 

I think we are 50/50 on war with Iran, it really depends on China and Russia's willingness to cut a deal which sends Iranian oil to China on stronger Yuan, Iran willing to deal with Russia on nuclear tech and Russia getting a little regional hedgemony back.

The big war might be internal though as entrenched interests worry about their slice of the pie rather than the pie getting bigger.  The only things that can shake the economy back to real growth (vs waiting for international consumption to rise which will take a decade or more) in my (not so) humble opinion is a deep massive shift in energy policy, a large water reclamation infrastructure buildout and a real healthcare plan which freezes costs while expanding care.  There are plenty of people who see those things as threatening, it's a shame because a bigger pie supports all appetites in the long run.

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#2) On November 14, 2009 at 12:12 PM, alstry (36.10) wrote:

Quite frankly, I am not sure how destructive a likely war will be....what I am confident of is it will likely be the most disruptive war in history.......and quite possibly the last.

Upon resolution, there will be a clean slate for massive technological advancements and implementation.

Our current system is shutting down and there is no doubt it is government policy...just like Barney Frank admitted it was government policy to agressively leverage real estate beyond any reasonable values.

Many are still applying old models to forecast the future......like dependence on gold......my guess is gold could work or just  as likely not......what is possible is that governments will create their own digital gold and unique currency as we know it will be gone.

Units of value will be digitized and paper and coins will be relics of the past.  It only makes sense that cents will be simply zero's and ones......as gold is tough to ship over the internet and not as green.

There are many other changes likely....like the rapid conversion of most energy use to nuclear.......it is simply the most efficient, most portable, and levels the world quicker than just about anything else.

The future is very bright indeed.......but it will be nothing like the present.

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#3) On November 14, 2009 at 12:21 PM, OneLegged (< 20) wrote:

"If you wanted to solve the problem, simply relieve the debt burden on the population as we did with the banks.  But if you only bail out the banks and not the private sector, the private sector dies and the banks survive."

 

I don't see any possiblity of this.  If we restructured debt the Masters of the Every-Loving F'ing Universe would be deprived of the interest on this paper.  We couldn't have that.  They get what they wantor they threaten to blow up the ecomony.  And here I thought they had already done that!?  The "people" have nothing to do with it anymore.  This is "Government of the Banks by  the Banks and for the Banks."  Pissed off?  You better believe it.  It's all a huge joke and the joke is on the taxpayers.

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#4) On November 14, 2009 at 12:38 PM, alstry (36.10) wrote:

The Dutch government said Friday it wants to introduce a "green" road tax by the kilometre from 2012 aimed at cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 10 percent and halving congestion.

"Each vehicle will be equipped with a GPS device that tracks how many kilometres are driven and when and where. This data will be then be sent to a collection agency that will send out the bill," the transport ministry said in a statement.

Ownership and sales taxes, about a quarter of the cost of a new car, will be scrapped and replaced by the "price per kilometre" system aimed at cutting the Netherlands' carbon dioxide emissions by 10 percent.

My guess is The Netherlands is on the leading edge of a trend.

What is clear is that the trend is moving away from private ownership and more toward pay as you go.  Just look at what is happening to Real Estate in America as more and more lose their property and values plummet from rising vacancies.

My guess is government will likely own most, if not all, the RE in America, and the world for that matter, and we will simply pay for what we use which will drive government revenues.

There are already a number of properties around the country where the owner is simply better off giving it back to the state because the property taxes, insurance, and maintenance simply don't economically justify holding it.  And as more and more commerical and residential RE fails, expect this trend to speed up.

You can tell by the current government policies of moving most of the mortgages into government ownership that someone someplace has already thought this one out.

Basically, we are changing the paradigm of our economy.  Productivity will be measured by what technological advancements you drive and not by what things you own our accumulate.

Again, you can see these trends happening all around the world....most of China's booming economy is still derived from state owned businesses at the end of the day.

Tom Friedman is right.....the world is becoming flat......and to get there, we have the most to change.

 

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#5) On November 14, 2009 at 12:52 PM, alstry (36.10) wrote:

Here is confirmation:

"One of the important lessons this recession has taught us is the limits of depending primarily on American consumers and Asian exports to drive growth," Obama said. "We have now reached one of those rare inflection points in history where we have the opportunity to take a different path."

Obama also said developing nations must take "substantial actions" to curb their greenhouse gas emissions.

"If we put the right rules and incentives in place, it will unleash the creative power of our best scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs. It will lead to new jobs, new businesses, and entire new industries," he said.

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#6) On November 14, 2009 at 1:01 PM, alstry (36.10) wrote:

The NEW GOLD!!!!!

Lord Smith of Finsbury believes that implementing individual carbon allowances for every person will be the most effective way of meeting the targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

It would involve people being issued with a unique number which they would hand over when purchasing products that contribute to their carbon footprint, such as fuel, airline tickets and electricity.

Like with a bank account, a statement would be sent out each month to help people keep track of what they are using.

If their "carbon account" hits zero, they would have to pay to get more credits.

Those who are frugal with their carbon usage will be able to sell their unused credits and make a profit.

Ruth Lea, an economist from Arbuthnot Banking Group, told the Daily Mail: "This is all about control of the individual and you begin to wonder whether this is what the green agenda has always been about. It's Orwellian. This will be an enormous tax on business."

HE WHO HAS THE GOLD, HAS THE POWER....NOW THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL GOLD BE????

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#7) On November 14, 2009 at 2:31 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"...military people  who were trained to take fire just sitting there as he put one gun down to reload the other????  It takes a few seconds to reload, but just one to take a man down."

You are one sick individual.  You're suggesting that those that were under fire didn't have "what it takes" and that they just "sat there???"

F@#%$ you al and all that you think you represent.

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#8) On November 14, 2009 at 2:38 PM, alstry (36.10) wrote:

No....not even close.......you may want to talk to a few people who actually served in the military.....unlike yourself.

After the horrible massacre at Ft. Hood, I spoke with a few people who served in the military. A retired army Capt. who served 7 years in the 173rd Airborne including time as a S-3 in a RSTA squadron said this: "There is no way a psychiatrist – basically an intellectual desk jockey – shot off hundreds of rounds with two pistols and hit about 40 people without being subdued by someone. Come on! He wasn't a trained assassin or a special ops commando shooting up a mall. He would have had to reload and that means putting one of the pistols down and reloading the other with seasoned combat vets in that deployment center. It only takes seconds to reload, but it only takes a second to subdue him."

A retired MP, Michael Martinez also said: "No way! That would be impossible. Even if he had two semi-auto pistols [according to early reports he used a 9mm and a .357 revolver to gun down over 40 people] he would still have had to stop to reload and someone would have jumped his ass. Most people on base aren't carrying [weapons], but MPs are and they would have been there in a heartbeat."

SFC Donald Buswell said, "I spent 10 years at Ft Hood. There is no way this 'official' story is legitimate. No way would a room full of combat vets allow this one shooter to get off over 100 rounds! And, it is not normal for the outside security guards to be there. They are at the MP station, and at the main gates. This means the room full of soldiers processing must have been pinned down; multiple shooters is the only plausible scenario. This sounds like Maj. Hasan has been used, and perhaps is a patsy."

Michael Gaddy, an army veteran of Vietnam, Beirut and Grenada writes: "The facts as presented by the Army and the media [about] the shooting at Fort Hood just don't compute. People on the ground have told me cell phone towers were jammed to prevent unauthorized dissemination of information after the shooting."

http://www.lewrockwell.com/spl/ft-hood-story-full-of-holes.html

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#9) On November 14, 2009 at 8:16 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.94) wrote:

Al -

I am sure you've seen this article, but thought I'd pass it on...

http://downloads.pewcenteronthestates.org/Beyond_California_Appendix.pdf

You are implying that Obama is going to lead us to war to distract us from the financial problems.  I don't think Obama has the balls to do this and don't believe that he is that beholden to the establishment.  I guess we'll see, eh?

Further, I don't believe that it will matter.  Even if the miltary spending is ramped up, we are in such a downward spiral right now, I don't see it solving.  In that article above, check out how significant are the budget gaps.  I count 19 states with budget gaps over 20%.  Wow...

JFC

 

 

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#10) On November 14, 2009 at 8:29 PM, alstry (36.10) wrote:

JFC,

It is not about "solving."  We are already insolvent.  No amount  printing will change that as the more we print, the higher rates go and the deeper in the whole we go unless we maintain a deflationary environment causing even more distress in the private sector which will force us to print more.

At this point, it is about a reset.......do you do it by economic implosion and fight your people at home or do you do it by fighting those outside....the problem with the latter is there can be unintended consequences.

As far as my uncertainty on gold, do some research on carbon credits and digital gold.....just a hunch.

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#11) On November 14, 2009 at 10:19 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.94) wrote:

I agree on the insolvent part.  Default is inevitable IMO.  It is just a matter of when.   Could be next month or 10 years from now...

Your comment on war... depending on who we go to war with or against, I see the result being the same.  War is only to increase the printing presses.  Unless our Allies are Japan and China, we are hosed.  I believe that China is already significantly selling their USD holdings, just doing it in such a manner that no one knows.

And with the tentacles of the Fed in all the banks and swaps with foreign banks who know who is really buying treasuries right now.  I think soon the Fed will be the only buyer.  At that point, hyperinflation sets in.

Regarding carbon credits and cap and trade, I am doom and gloomer just like you. I think Obama has sold his(and our soul) to the rest of the world.  America is evil, right?  That seems to be what Obama thinks.

JFC

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