It's all about GDP in the end
We have this constant debate between bulls and bears here. Bears claim this is nothing but a bear rally and we will crash again. Bulls are arguing that further highs are in the charts and you saw your bottom early March. Both sides make their arguments. But in the end it really is all about GDP. Anything goes with individual stocks. Many factors, including GDP growth, will impact a stock's direction. But it really is no coincidence that the market plunged as much as it did the last 6 months along with the biggest consecutive drop in GDP in over 50 years.
The ultimate determinant if we saw the bottom or not is what will GDP do in the future. Bernanke, in his testimony today feels we have seen the worse in contraction, and it is quite possible growth can begin again end of year and continuing albeit at a low rate. But hey, a small rate increase beats the hell out of a massive drop in my opinion.
Whether we crash again or slowly rise will be determined ultimately by those 3 big letters. I am in the camp that the worse is behind us, but time will tell.