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It's Tough Out There!

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October 22, 2007 – Comments (18)

Hello once again fellow Fools!

I was just looking at my CAPS scorecard, and geez, will Dry Ships' run ever stop?  I'm thinking of changing my screen name to TMFDryShips, because that one call seems to be dominating my entire CAPS performance lately.  I'm down about 1,200 points or so on that call alone - ouch!

Daily I struggle with myself as to whether or not I shoud finally capitulate and throw in the towel on that stinker.  So far I haven't, but it's not fun losing 1,000 score points over a month - and having one single call be the main catalyst for that implosion.

And if that weren't enough, over on my stock-picking blog, EldrehadsPicks, it hasn't been much easier.  My inagural pick, Red Robin, plummeted 5% on the first day!  My second pick, Flowers Foods, was an immediate loser too.  Of course, just to be consistent, October's pick (which was released earlier today), Lufkin Industries, is also in the red as of this writing.  Okay, none of them is, at this point, underwater by very much - but still - it seems like not that long ago I was Top Fool, and today I'm out of the top 10, and my stock-picking blog, for which I had (and still have) high hopes, is 0 for 3.

It is tough out there!

I check my CAPS pick lists daily (sometimes hitting 'refresh' over and over again just to get the latest data to feed my 'fix') and find myself fretting over short-term price fluctuations much more than I think I should or would like to admit.

Ahhh... but therein lies the silver lining.

I fret over short-term price fluctuations in CAPS!  I fret over the minute-by-minute price changes of DryShips.  I fret over noise-level changes in price for my EldrehadsPicks selections.

And while I do check my real money portfolio from time to time (generally daily), I don't fret over short-term movements there at all.  I get a lot of that out of my system here in CAPS - and that, to me, is a good thing.  Whether or not to exit my call on Dry Ships is something I struggle with daily.  How well my real holdings are doing minute-by-minute doesn't even appear on my radar.

While I've always tried to keep my investing focus on the long-term, having a safe place to 'play' and fret and moan and groan and gnash my teeth over inconsequential daily price fluctuations helps keep these emotions out of my real life portfolio.

And for that, this Fool thinks himself a better investor.

Regards,

Russell (TMFEldrehad)

18 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 22, 2007 at 5:48 PM, TDRH (99.52) wrote:

Hang in there.  It is the same for everybody.

For what it is worth, I think Lufkin is a good choice.

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#2) On October 22, 2007 at 5:54 PM, hall9999 (99.25) wrote:

  Feeding that 'fretting fix' is a great reason to play CAPS. 

  As for DRYS, the accuracy point probably isn't an issue since you have so many picks and it is unlikely to go green anyway.  As for the points, I guess you have to reasses (re asses? Is that right or have I lost the capacity to spell?) the company's prospects and decide whether or not the chances of it falling far enough to recoup a significant number of points outweighs the chances that it will stay here or go higher.  

   Speaking of painful red thumb picks, what do you think of GBT (ABAT.OB) now?

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#3) On October 22, 2007 at 10:06 PM, infoLust (26.86) wrote:

This downward trend tends to happen to alot of red thumbers.  Negative score picks build up in the portfolio.  This is OK if your green thumbing it because to lose at max 100 points.  If your red thumbing it, you stand to lose quite alot.  The further it moves, the more you lose on a pick weighted basis.  Risk is not capped.  Anyway there is a perfect fool article The 1-Star Stock With 5-Star Returns that you may not have noticed. It was featured on the caps home page.

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#4) On October 23, 2007 at 8:41 AM, Gtrinvestor (99.72) wrote:

2 points:

DRYS:  I too have a red thumb on this one, but after being a measly 100 pts down I think I am going to end my red thumb.  No reason to weigh down my score with this anchor... in particular after the write-up in the WSJ yesterday in regards to why dry ship cargo carriers are doing fantastically well, and why they are predicted to continue growing for the next couple of years.  Don't get me wrong, I am not advocating investing in DRYS, but I am looking for a short-term drop in the stock to end my position.

RRGB: You can see my post out there on this one in the top Bull / Bear pitches section (in summary, I'm not convinced that this one has legs).  I haven't had a chance to review your other picks, but I agree with your overall mentality that you can't let a few weeks of poor performance cloud your judgement nor get your spirits down.  The odds will play out eventually.  That being said, I still believe it is harder to choose thumbs up picks than thumbs down picks, so your percentages may get hurt from your normal player (especially b/c I assume you won't re-load).  Still, best of luck in your endeavor, I certainly appreciate the time you spend in creating a write-up on these stocks (rather than just a thumbs up rating).

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#5) On October 23, 2007 at 2:36 PM, scosan (22.38) wrote:

MOST importantly, it's good to see you healthy. 

Have you thought about creating a TMF Eldrehad "buy and hold" portfolio that mimics (not copies) your real life investing?

 I've found I do much better when my CAPS picks follow my personal investing.  In real life, I don't short, take risks, make quick decisions, or churn stocks, and found that picks (on CAPS)  not carefully researched have been the reason for my incredible fall from grace in CAPS.  (from 70th to almost last)

Lack of time is an issue at work.  So, I'll keep making calls on CAPS from time to time and focus on long term value picks.  If I improve (I can't go any lower) so be it.

Good to see you back.  You're still the champ.  It'll be awhile before anyone breaks your record for top performance.

Scosan

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#6) On October 24, 2007 at 9:01 AM, arogant (< 20) wrote:

YOU'RE A FOOL. SUCH AN IDIOT THAT I TOOK YOU OFF MY FAVORITES. I AM AN U.S. EQUITIES DAY TRADER. I HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING DRYS EVERY SINCE THE STOCK WAS TRADING AT $ 60.00. THE STOCK IS UP OVER $ 55.00 IN ONE MONTH. IF YOU'D RESEARCH THE COMPANY YOU'D KNOW THAT THIS STOCK IS GOING MUCH HIGHER. EVERY STOCK IS IT'S SECTOR GOT THEIR PRICE TARGET RAISED LAST WEEK. THE COMPANY HAS VERY STRONG GROWTH. I HAVE A $ 190.00 PRICE TARGET ON THIS STOCK BY JANUARY.

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#7) On October 24, 2007 at 9:03 AM, arogant (< 20) wrote:

YOU ARE A TRUE MONTLY FOOL. IF YOU WANT TO LOOK MORE LIKE A FOOL BUY EXM AND TBSI. THE NEXT DRYS. THESE STOCKS SHOULD REALLY MAKE YOUR CAPS PORTFOLIO LOOK FOOLISH.

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#8) On October 24, 2007 at 1:36 PM, TMFCHarris (99.60) wrote:

TMFBent used to joke about the "U R THE REAL MONTLY FOOL" emails he'd get, but I never thought they were real.

Out of curiosity, who is shorting EXM and TBSI based on those comments alone? 

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#9) On October 24, 2007 at 1:58 PM, TMFEldrehad (99.99) wrote:

I'd think they're real.  I'm sure I don't get the level of feedback Seth does, but I get a few from time to time.  My favorite so far is the rather succinct yet colorful commentary in reply to my Dry Ships pitch which states, simply, "you are pathetic".

No question that my score on the Dry Ships call, at least, fits that description.  Whether or not it applies broadly to all of my stock picking endeavors I leave for individual Fools to decide - which is as I think it should be.

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#10) On October 25, 2007 at 12:40 AM, infoLust (26.86) wrote:

Eldrehad, you never get hot headed... that's one of the things I like about you.

arogant, you suit your name. 

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#11) On October 25, 2007 at 11:58 AM, imacg5 (81.23) wrote:

 I come to praise Eldrehad, not to bury him! LOL, and I won't try to convert you either. But would like to see you remove that blemish from your record (DRYS). You have done some great things here, and I assume with your own portfolio. But you seem to have made your pick of DRYS on emotion and not fundamentals. I was first attracted to Dry Bulk last year by DSX, and in doing DD I found capitallink.com which gave me all the info I needed to see what the co. would earn, more info than you can get on most sectors. Soon I realized that DRYS and EXM were going to earn alot more based on Spot rates, and bought them. If you don't like George Economou, fine but if you look at the business, it's money. Good Luck and Good Trading! 

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#12) On October 25, 2007 at 8:52 PM, cmebot07 (73.80) wrote:

Sorry to say, but I think you have DRYS wrong.... the EPS ests keep going up, a large % or revenue is locked in for 2008, 2009, and even 2010, and analysts keep upgrading. I think I recently saw a $160 price tgt.

Might wanna throw in the towel

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#13) On October 26, 2007 at 4:09 PM, hkramer48 (< 20) wrote:

Arogant may be arogant but I seem to recall some arrogance on your part too - such as your comment about one Chinese solar company. Something like "Let's see, I get to bash a Chinese and a solar company at the same time? I'll go for that." I bet you've lost a collective thousand points or more on Chinese and/or alternative energy stocks too.

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#14) On October 26, 2007 at 5:29 PM, TMFEldrehad (99.99) wrote:

First, just to make it clear, I didn't call anyone arrogant.  Ad hominem simply isn't my style.

Second, one of the great aspects of CAPS is the ability to examine one's track record, as everything is preserved for everyone to see.  If you really want to know my overall track record in alternative energy, I invite you to take a look.  I definately have racked up a few negative score points in the solar arena, but to gauge my overall success in alternative energy, you'll need to include the great many calls I've made in both the ethanol and fuel cell arenas.  Based on your comments, I think my overall track record in alternative energy may surprise you.

Regards,

-Russell (TMFEldrehad)

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#15) On October 26, 2007 at 10:41 PM, imacg5 (81.23) wrote:

 How did so many of you 99 & 100 point scorers let one rant from TMFOTTER about DRYS, stick with an underperform rating? And how did you get such a good score when you can't see why Dry Bulk companies are rolling in cash? This sector is so transparent, capitallink.com provides all the info to do DD. Number of ships, how much they get per day, and how much they were paid before.Then do the math. That's why every month when a new charter is announced, the analysts that cover the sector raise the EARNINGS est. And the analysts who know nothing but TA, complain about head and shoulder, cup and handle, and PE's based on old numbers.You guys are just like Jim Cramer, in an effort to know the stock symbols of hundreds of stocks, you end up knowing very little about many of the stocks you have opinions on.

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#16) On October 27, 2007 at 1:52 AM, Novavm (99.89) wrote:

Sorry to say but TMFelderhad needed this lesson of investing.

Do not be short on top performing sectors in their best momentum.Follow the trend.

Also,by picking bunch of trash pink sheet companies or over the counter or by being short just because in long term S&P 500 tend to up is not enouch.This does not work espesialy in real investing.

By following this strategy no one  will be able to be for long time on the top.

Eldrehad,if you want to comeback learn to pick stocks long too.

Otherwise look for performance of " Idahoinvestor" one time  on top ten and analyse what went wrong.

Do not understnad me wrong.

I wish you best of luck.Hopefully i see you soon amoung us .

I see that he did not learn his lesson.

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#17) On October 29, 2007 at 12:51 PM, hkramer48 (< 20) wrote:

My apologies. I was referring back to a previous comment from someone identified as "Arogant" on Oct. 24. (refer to #7&8). Sorry again.

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#18) On October 30, 2007 at 10:32 AM, TMFEldrehad (99.99) wrote:

To hkramer48:

I thought there might be a misunderstanding somwhere, which is why I tried to clarify things.  Apology absolutely accepted!

Fool on!

-Russell

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