I've changed my mind, again...
It has been 4 weeks since my last prediction (made on August 14, 2009 - link will be posted at the end of this post), in which I predicted that the market will continue to go up for another 2 months (or 8 weeks).
I hope you agree that so far I was right (market did continue to go up these past 4 weeks).
(And once you see the link, and in it the link to my initial prediction, I hope you will agree I was right for a while now).
However, now I've changed my mind, and I think that we only have 2 more weeks left (instead of 4) before the market starts going down again. And when I say down, I don't mean nothing cataclysmic, just a healthy correction.
So in my opinion, this coming week, and the one after that, will still be up weeks (S&P's closing price at the end of Week 2 will be higher than today), followed by a correction which will end somewhere between October 26 and November 6 (2-weeks span). In other words, I'm saying that the correction (once again: correction will start 2 weeks from now) will last approximately 5-6 weeks.
After that, shortly before or after November 6, the market will start its march up again, and will go up for good 5-6 weeks. Of course, the S&P's closing price at that time will be higher than today (my guess is: DOW around 10,500, S&P around 1,200). I'm specifying this as this will be the last (great) opportunity to profit this year (hint: buy stocks that are leaders now, but will fall hard during correction. You'll double your money, at least.)
And that will be it for this year. At that time, media (same media that was sceptic all this year) will be celebrating a great year for the stocks, will be listing this year's winners with huge returns,... basically will be doing everything (but not on purpose) that will entice the average small investor (also called: show-me-good-news-investor) back into the market.
Of course, a frustrated small investor (who will be kicking himself/herself for missing this year's rally) will jump back in with both feet.
Unfortunately, 2010 will not be near as good to the stocks (and brave investors) as 2009 was...
There will be plenty of opportunities for skillful traders, but the small investor will once again be aking herself/himself: "Remind me, why do I invest in stocks...?"
(But there will be some good news in 2010 for those investors: The economy will improve...)
link to my previous prediction: I've changed my mind
If interested, also see this: Look at this chart