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I've changed my mind...

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August 14, 2009 – Comments (19) | RELATED TICKERS: CENX , FOE , LVS

In my post from 7/28/09 http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=235245&t=01008158613816675643  I said that market will continue to go up for another 2-3 weeks, which was a pretty bold call when everybody was expecting a big pullback (or collapse like our top fool UltraLong).

Today, at the end of week 3, I think it's safe to say I was pretty right so far.

However, now I don't expect any sharp corrections (4-6 weeks long) as I predicted in my previously mentioned post.

I'm now convinced that market will just continue to go up for another 2 months (at least) with a day down (or two) just like today. Good stocks (like the ones in my portfolio: CENX, FOE, LVS, GCI, DDR) will continue to outperform the market nicely...

What will happen after these 2 months are over...I'll try to guess at that time...

p.s. Did I get overly optimistic or am I just right about this market? We'll see...

Who would ever think that after this post, I'd still be standing...   

 

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 14, 2009 at 12:12 PM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

GCI, DDR, and LVS are all garbage of the lowest order--all three of them will be bankrupt within two years. You're going to get murdered when the market turns lower.

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#2) On August 14, 2009 at 12:57 PM, kaskoosek (70.89) wrote:

This post is borderline idiotic.

 

Can you give any reasons. 

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#3) On August 14, 2009 at 1:12 PM, toopersent (78.09) wrote:

I too, would like some supporting evidence for these egregious claims.

I, for one, am slowly losing my optimism.  We've had an incredible run so far.  The markets seemed to ignore bad news, but I don't think it can last any longer.  We need some economic growth, damnit!

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#4) On August 14, 2009 at 1:48 PM, Teacherman1 (57.42) wrote:

I used to own CENX and sold out at a profit. They are way over priced right now. Look at their income statement. The only reason they had a share price high of $51.00 in the past, was because they were supposed to be bought out. That was at the height of the market. If you are just speculating and short term trading, you can make some money in them, but they are not a good INVESTMENT. If you are big on aluminum, then AA is much better. Another one to go along with them ia AWC. JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it. Long on all my picks. I put real money where my mouth is.

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#5) On August 14, 2009 at 7:24 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:

Teacherman1, All my CAPS picks I either own or I owned them earlier this year.

For everybody else who wants supporting evidence for my predictions, I ask them to show me supporting evidence for the run that market had so far. How do you explain that? What was so obvious so you guys knew the market will behave the way it did. I guess you knew it as I see you know it already that I'm wrong...

p.s. GMX,

If LVS, GCI, and DDR are all "garbage that will get killed when market turns lower", how do you explain that on a day like today, when market was down .85%,

LVS was down only 3.4% (after being up 12.5% yesterday), GCI was up today .86% (after being up 2.3% yesterday), and DDR was down only .72% (after being up 8.6% yesterday)?

Weren't there supposed to be more sellers than what we saw today?

I think you are wrong, but I guess time will tell...

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#6) On August 15, 2009 at 5:24 PM, Teacherman1 (57.42) wrote:

Glad to know you actually buy them. I have added you to my favorites so I can steal ( I mean benefit from looking at your choices) My comments about CENX were for the long run. They are up now because Aluminum is up, in the long run (since their spin off from Peoabody) they have never made a profit. I hope you make a killing in it, but at some point, that bubble is going to burst and I just did not feel comfortable holding it over my investment horizon of 2-3 years. I made a profit on them, and am thankful. Good luck on all of your picks.

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#7) On August 15, 2009 at 8:22 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:

Good Luck to you too, Teacherman1.

p.s. Here is a litlle something for you on CENX from another post:

#4) On August 02, 2009 at 4:46 PM, dragonLZ (97.82) wrote:

Have CENX in my Caps portolio (start price $6.29), and also in my real-life one (first buy at $4). Purchased some more 10 days ago, hoping it's gonna be $11-$12 in just a few weeks...

p.s.2

On August 02, CENX was $8.38. Today, on August 14, is $11.55...

A lot of people thought it was way overpriced at $8.38...

Good Luck, once again...

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#8) On August 15, 2009 at 8:41 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:

Teacherman1, Forgot to say: I like your picks too. I think you'll do just fine.

Also, I don't think you'll find a bunch of new picks/ideas in my portfolio as I, just like you, usually add to CAPS only the stocks I also buy in real life...

p.s.

One pick that I don't have in my CAPS portfolio (doesn't meet 100 mil min. cap req.), which I consider a good buy right now is NCS. Keep an eye on it. I think it might double in less than 3 months (and it might also be a good long term pick)... :)

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#9) On August 17, 2009 at 11:04 AM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

LVX -8% today, FOE -7%, GCI -5%, CENX -10%, DDR -10%, S&P -2.4%. Crap, utter and complete crap of the lowest order. Debt-ridden companies that are all one bad year away from bankruptcy--buying the flea-ridden stocks of the market works during bull markets but will inevitably fail hard during prolonged bear markets. Thanks for the ideas in this post, my fresh new DDR and FOE red thumbs are scoring nice points today.

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#10) On August 17, 2009 at 3:34 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:

Just wait... :)

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#11) On August 17, 2009 at 3:42 PM, chrisheck (72.61) wrote:

"I'll try to guess at that time..."

 

That just about says it all...chris

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#12) On August 17, 2009 at 4:15 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:

People with accuracy less than 50% (which basically means they made more losing than winning calls), please don't comment here where we try to guess the market's next move... :)

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#13) On August 17, 2009 at 8:39 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:

Smart investors know: "Trend is your friend"..., and I belive this trend will continue...

p.s. Posting this on a day my stocks got killed...

 

 

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#14) On August 18, 2009 at 12:51 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:


Current DateTime: 02:51:36 18 Aug 2009

Investors Brace for Correction, But Just How Bad Will It Be?

CNBC.com, Front Page

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#15) On August 18, 2009 at 12:53 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:

Current DateTime: 08:24:50 18 Aug 2009

Stock Strategist: Go 30% Long — and Play the Pullback

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#16) On August 18, 2009 at 12:56 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:


Current DateTime: 08:24:50 18 Aug 2009

4 Signs The Market May Be In Correction

CNBC.com, Front Page

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#17) On August 18, 2009 at 5:26 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:

#9) On August 17, 2009 at 11:04 AM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote: Thanks for the ideas in this post, my fresh new DDR and FOE red thumbs are scoring nice points today.

Oops, today, somebody lost all his points he got yesterday on FOE... For the same to happen on his DDR call, it's gonna take just a few more days...

Btw. CENX was up 7.5% today, DDR up 3.7%, GCI up 2.1%, LVS up 5.1%, and FOE up 6.9%...

Not too bad after the big "fear" hit the market yesterday. Also, some people kind of expected to have a good day today...

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#18) On August 19, 2009 at 12:39 PM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:

As China Stocks Retreat, Fears Grow About Economic Impact  Published: Wednesday, 19 Aug 2009 | 10:07 AM ET

 

Fear again. Nice. Very nice...

Market will continue to go up...

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#19) On August 21, 2009 at 7:45 AM, dragonLZ (99.45) wrote:


Current DateTime: 04:38:05 21 Aug 2009What Recovery? New-Home Market Remains in Slump

CNBC.com, Front page

 

Bad news again.

Nice. Market will continue to go up...

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