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J Crew CEO Gets an F for Effort

May 30, 2008 – Comments (2)

This is pretty funny.

“I just want to say something,” said Chairman and CEO Millard Drexler, according to the Thomson StreetEvents transcript. “This is all a forecast. America in the last six months pretty much gets an ‘F’ on forecasting in most sectors of America. All right? Understand, this is not a science. … This is a world that is going through rapid changes. No one forecast the housing crisis, except one or two, I think, successful people. No one forecast the credit crunch.

Bullspit, Millard. There were people all over the place forecasting the end of the housing bubble and a return in the credit markets to the days when risk wasn't ignored. You just chose to ignore them, along with everyone else. Even your choice of words shows you don't understand, Millard. It's not a housing "crisis" when lending returns to normal and the double digit increases stop, or reverse. It's called reverting to the mean. I suspect if you crack open your economics or management textbooks, Millard, you'll find the topic explained. Ever hear of a business cycle? Related topic. Try the glossary.

No, forecasting isn't easy. But some things are too obvious to be ignored. If you didn't see the housing bubble, you were ignoring it, and you would miss the correction, too. As a final reminder, if you wake up on third base, it doesn't mean you hit a triple.