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alstry (35.50)

January 1, 2009..................

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December 28, 2008 – Comments (15)

This will be a pivotal point in Alstrynonics.  It is in part why I am so confident in my 90 day countdown.....it may be 80 days too generous.

It will be a time of dynamic changes and reactions will be swift and severe.  Many companies will likely go bankrupt in the next few weeks.  Millions may lose their jobs.  We should see some major structural changes around the world.......What was will likely not be.....what will be may never have been........it should be very interesting indeed.  Grab your bottle, pick your mix, and get in a comfortable chair. 

On your Mark, Get Set,  Are you Ready.......................

Earlier this month, Dow said it would lay off 11% of its workforce and close 180 plants but promised not to cut its dividend........

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Kuwait said Sunday it is terminating plans for its $17.4 billion dollar joint venture with Dow Chemical Co. amid political opposition.

Kuwait's state-run Petrochemical Industries Co. signed the K-Dow deal last month, agreeing to pay $7.5 billion to form the joint venture. If Kuwait had canceled the agreement after the start of the New Year, it would have been liable to pay a penalty of up to $2.5 billion, according to a Reuters report.

This was a BIG deal for DOW.....maybe they could get Buffet to pony up a few more Billion?

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 28, 2008 at 3:50 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

What differentiates WWlll from a bunch of independent battles?????

Across Mideast, thousands protest Israeli air assault in Gaza

14 children die in bombing at Afghan school, U.S. military says

Turkish warplanes hit Kurdish guerrilla targets in northern Iraq

US military prepares for civil unrest

 

Are the battle lines and what defines enemy getting blurred???

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#2) On December 28, 2008 at 8:24 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.58) wrote:

Alstry, Me thinks you have it wrong related to gold...

http://www.kitco.com/

888.  Will we see 950 by Jan 1... or higher?

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#3) On December 28, 2008 at 8:56 PM, uclayoda87 (29.85) wrote:

I keep reading and hearing about all this bad news, but it does not bother me anymore.  Am I just getting desensitized?  Will I be just as indifferent to good new, if we see some again?

I think I'm just learning to manage expectations better.

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#4) On December 28, 2008 at 9:06 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

JFC,

It wouldn't be the first time I was wrong, and I doubt it will be the last.  Just playing the odds baby and my view of the playing field.

UC,

Desensitization is simply a relative thing...but don't be a frog in heated water........being boiled sucks...even if you don't feel it.

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#5) On December 28, 2008 at 11:05 PM, jegr5347 (< 20) wrote:

Alstry,

You should also let your readers know that tremendous opportunities will arise out of this carnage. Fellow fools need to be nimble and be able to turn on a dime. Just because Kaybee toys could not make a profit on $100m in sales doesn't mean you can't be profitable on $1m.

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#6) On December 28, 2008 at 11:07 PM, jgseattle (39.00) wrote:

Alstry -

I posted a few questions on a statement you made a while ago.  Was hoping you would comment.  If you have time please look at my blog history and comment.  Thanks.

As for the next few months I think we will see some retail going, going, gone.  I think we will see additional banking troubles.

I think we will see money being printed until deflation is not even considered and inflation is the big problem.

My outlook is very fluid and confussed so I am hedging with gold and cash.

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#7) On December 28, 2008 at 11:37 PM, Mary953 (39.19) wrote:

So tell me dear Alstry -

Before I settle in with my favorite beverage to watch the carnage from a safe distance, should I cash out enough money to pay off my home, make any needed repairs, buy a new car (cash), and lay in some non-perishable foods before my money becomes so devalued as to become worthless? 

My alternative choice was to be the type of income stocks that paid good dividends.  In the meanwhile, I believe I will search out small, ridiculously high end boutiques to feed into CAPS with downturned thumbs.

So, what does one do with about-to-be devalued currency; buy dried beans or dividend bearing securities?

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#8) On December 28, 2008 at 11:40 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

JQ,

Not sure what you posted nor how to access it.......but gold and cash seems like a good way to appease Sinchy and me at the same time.......the more of each the better your odds.

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#9) On December 28, 2008 at 11:48 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

Mary,

Don't be too hasty to jump to the conclusion that money will be devalued.  I know that will upset a bunch of CAPs members, but popularity has never been one of my ambitions.

Here is a thought for those contemplating whether to pay off debt......assuming a bank is your counterparty.....if you feel better having some liquidity....take an offsetting amount of cash and place it on deposit with the financial instution that you owe money....at that point you are hedged against the institution going bust and you can pay off the loan on your schedule.

As far as income stocks, make sure the outlook for income remains strong.  Just because you marry a doctor, it doesn't mean he is going to refrain from running off with the nurse.

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#10) On December 28, 2008 at 11:59 PM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

Alstry, you said "at that point you are hedged against the institution going bust" but that is only true if the amounts on deposit with that financial institution are fully insured by the FDIC.  Otherwise, when that instiution fails you will receive a "receivable" from the FDIC in excess of the insured amount of the deposit and a dunning notice for the balance of the indebtedness owed to that institution. And then again, there likely isn't any restriction in your promissory note or mortgage that would prevent the holder of that debt from selling/assigning it to another financial institution with which you have no dealings.

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#11) On December 29, 2008 at 12:00 AM, Mary953 (39.19) wrote:

Alstry - Thank you for just the encouragement I needed (on the devaluation of currency) That seemed to be such a recurring theme and was getting just a bit too overwhelming.

There are a few things I do know.  I am fairly comfortable with most of the stocks I actually have money in (BWLD, PG, etc) and while some have dividends, I like others for different reasons.  I actually 'play' at CAPS with an abandon that I would never use toward actual money.  Oh, and while I wouldn't want to be married to a doctor (long hours), my guy doesn't go out for hamburger when there is steak at home!

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#12) On December 29, 2008 at 12:25 AM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

Bravo,

You owe the institution X and they owe you X.  They default on you and you on them....sounds like a wash to me.

As far a them selling the note, now we have a different situation.

But if you want to play it safe, simply spread it out to FDIC limits...which have recently been raised......I was more trying to make a point on allocating cash against debt...but good points....thanx.

And for those guys playing over the FDIC limits, seek competent counsel.....you can afford it.

Mary,

I have little doubt.....and a Porterhouse nonetheless.

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#13) On December 29, 2008 at 10:46 AM, jesusfreakinco (29.58) wrote:

Japan is recognizing that US debt may not be worth 100% in the long run.  Must read article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFgHlh.Dn4Lc

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#14) On December 29, 2008 at 1:07 PM, BGriffinFlorida (27.15) wrote:

jesusfreakinco:

Very strange article:  the main source quoted in the article is supposed to be the head of a credit rating agency, but the activcle notes:

>>Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said.<<

 ..

Really?

..

What is missing here?  Low Treasury yields means that there is high demand, that the prices have been bib UP, indicating, not a lack of ability to borrow, but an abundance.

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#15) On December 29, 2008 at 1:55 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

JFC,

You think Japan's debt is worth 100% in the long run with it confronting its worst recession in 50 years?????

If no one's debt is worth 100%, then isn't everyone's debt worth 100% relative to each other?

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