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Jim Cramer is Bearish. Murdoch Says He's `Very Bearish' on Economy. Ron Paul on Iran Policy 7/9/08

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July 10, 2008 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: FOX , UDN

I consider Jim Cramer's opinion slightly less valuable then a dart throwing monkey. (A monkey is  by the law of averages 50/50? TrackJimCramer is 48%). I am not sure to make of a professionial stock shill, who turns Bearish? It is like a clown, who trys to make kids cry.

1. Watch Jim Cramer here (Financial Collapse): 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=788862087 

2. Templeton Saw It Coming

 

Templeton, a pioneer in global investing, died Tuesday at age 95. Four years earlier, he laid out a strikingly accurate prognosis for the U.S. economy for Forbes Magazine. (See "An Investment Legend's Advice")

In February 2004, Templeton, a true contrarian, told Forbes that his chief concern was the U.S. consumer. He said Americans had taken on too much credit-card and mortgage debt. Templeton even said home prices would fall and defaults rise. "When I was young, in the three years after 1929, a high proportion of people lost their homes in foreclosure," he said. "It's likely to happen again. It's not abnormal. It's cyclical, and it will put pressure on all prices."

3. News Corp.'s Murdoch Says He's `Very Bearish' on Economy Bloomberg 10 July 08

Bloomberg 10 July 08 (Video 2:22).

4. Marc Faber:"the dollar will loses its value to pretty much everything in the world...I am bearish on everything"

 

5. Ron Paul on Iran Policy 7/9/08

 

6. “I'm in the process of -- I hope in the next few months -- getting all of my assets out of the dollar,” Jim Rogers told Bloomberg (24 Oct 07). “I'm that pessimistic about what's happening in the U.S.''

“It's the official policy of the central bank and the U.S. to debase the currency,'' said Rogers, “The U.S. dollar is and has been the world's reserve currency, the world's medium of exchange… That's in the process of changing. “The pound sterling, which used to be the world's reserve currency, lost 80% of its value, top to bottom, as it went through the whole period of losing its status as the world's reserve currency.''

 

7. “I think the credit situation is worse than anybody realizes,” said Julian Robertson on CNBC.

Robertson’s a bit of a legend. In 1980, he started his Tiger Management fund with $8 million… and grew it 875 fold into $7 billion over the next 16 years. He then closed it when he ceased to understand valuations on Wall Street during the tech boom… and bust.

Now he’s sounding the alarm for the economy at large. “I think we’re going to have a doozy of a recession,” he predicted. “The Federal Reserve and our government will trash the dollar until such times as there is some turnaround in the economy or until they realize that this policy is self-defeating.”

You can watch the whole Robertson interview here.

You Fools Better Recognize the gravity of the situation, like ADM Ackbar, Jim Cramer's call "it's a trap" is to late to save most investors, but the battle with stagflation has just started. 

 

 

 

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 10, 2008 at 6:24 PM, abitare (50.62) wrote:

Warren Buffett says recession long & deep (April 28, 2008)

 

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#2) On July 10, 2008 at 6:55 PM, DemonDoug (32.27) wrote:

Their tongues can't repel flavor of that magnitude!

http://www.youtube.com/v/HDLx08Oar3Q&hl=en&fs=1"> name="allowFullScreen" value="true">http://www.youtube.com/v/HDLx08Oar3Q&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344">

I'm as bearish as everyone else.  Although I think Cramer's words are a sign that we'll get a short term bull (S&P up .7% today lol).  However I will maintain my stance that strong blue chips that have been beaten up make a great investment in the current cycle.  The great thing about blue chips is that most if not all of them are doing 50% or more business outside the US.  IBM isn't one of my favorites but their earnings and share price have gone gangbusters in recent years due to their international focus.

I like Faber though "I'm bearish on everything" lol.  Jim Rogers really is the man though.  Love that guy.

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#3) On July 10, 2008 at 7:43 PM, binv271828 (< 20) wrote:

I am not sure to make of a professionial stock shill, who turns Bearish? It is like a clown, who trys to make kids cry.

LOL! That is the money quote right there. 

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#4) On July 10, 2008 at 8:32 PM, TheParadox (93.63) wrote:

...yea, that quote is just killer...

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#5) On July 10, 2008 at 9:25 PM, abitare (50.62) wrote:

ALCON,

Thank you for th replies.

The video on Bloomberg with Murdoch today is worth the time to play: 

The Rupert Murdoch Says He's `Very Bearish' on Economy: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=au2KU0Se5XXY 

Murdoch is one very dangerous guy, IMO. The ability to conform the opinions of Americas dumbest people is a lot of power.  A mob of idiots is a dangerous weapon. 

From Mish Shedlock today: 

McCain's Economic Adviser Says "Recession Is Mental"

McCain's Economic Adviser Says "Recession Is Mental" Phil Gramm, McCain's economic advisor talks about a "Mental Recession".
"You've heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession," Gramm said, noting that growth has held up at about 1 percent despite all the publicity over losing jobs to India, China, illegal immigration, housing and credit problems and record oil prices. "We may have a recession; we haven't had one yet."

"We have sort of become a nation of whiners," he said. "You just hear this constant whining, complaining about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline" despite a major export boom that is the primary reason that growth continues in the economy, he said.

"We've never been more dominant; we've never had more natural advantages than we have today," he said. "We have benefited greatly" from the globalization of the economy in the last 30 years.

Mr. Gramm said the constant drubbing of the media on the economy's problems is one reason people have lost confidence. Various surveys show that consumer confidence has fallen precipitously this year to the lowest levels in two to three decades, with most analysts attributing that to record high gasoline prices over $4 a gallon and big drops in the value of homes, which are consumers' biggest assets.

"Misery sells newspapers," Mr. Gramm said. "Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper every day."

Phil Graham wife was on the board of Enron. He is a big supporter on the Enron Loophole, something you should understand, well.

 DemonDoug,

"Although I think Cramer's words are a sign that we'll get a short term bull (S&P up .7% today lol).  "

IMO I think JC is a mouth peice for GS/GE to the "investors" of America. If I had to guess, I would always take the opposite side of JC.  His "bearish call" is more bullish then "bearish". But I think the magnitude of pessimism is beyond him GS and GE.

I like the call on the  Bluechips and I think they will outperform the general market. I am keeping my Alcoa long. But, I think the move is still downward. I feel strange with a green thumb + positive CAP points and negative over all returns.

Jim Rogers has been very right on the market, dollar, commodities. China has been cut in half lately.

 

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#6) On July 10, 2008 at 9:30 PM, abitare (50.62) wrote:

I should mention the reason for Ron Paul's video.

THE WAR! You had better have an opinion on the ^#%@#@$#^%^ WAR! War with Iran = War economy, which is bad for many beaten stocks. The whole issue is incredible the will of the American people is ignored.

UN Inspector Scott Ritter: Fools would Bomb Iran

 

 

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#7) On July 10, 2008 at 10:11 PM, AnomaLee (28.77) wrote:

If Jim Cramer is bearish then that means stocks are going to rally about 5-6% next week or the week after fore sure.

Also, I Scott Ritter speaks the cold-hard truth....

 

 

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#8) On July 10, 2008 at 10:16 PM, abitare (50.62) wrote:

AnomaLee,

Although I am uber-bearish. JC bearish call makes me want to cover some short positions.  

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#9) On July 10, 2008 at 11:08 PM, awallejr (76.17) wrote:

I dunno, the more people turn bearish and doom and gloom, the closer we may be to a bottom. I've seen these cycles before (such as in the 80s).  As long as the Fed doesn't listen to Kudlow and most of his guests, keeps interest rates low for awhile, doesn't tighen money supply, lets the foreclosure process run its course (maybe 2 more years), allow the financials to stabilize, encourage domestic industries (energy related programs), things should eventually turn around.

I guess we have to wait until November when the "sell in May and go away" people come back.

As for Jim Cramer, I just can't watch his show anymore. I simply can't take his hypocricy.  Abitare your video skit on him was a classic.  I sure hope you emailed it to him.

 

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#10) On July 12, 2008 at 3:30 AM, blade5adj (< 20) wrote:

I'll agree with you that Jim Cramer is kind of...well, as you said, not even as good as a monkey.  But I am curious as to how far you think things will slide.  I like to think of myself as a contrarian, but your predominantly bearish stance (correct me if I'm wrong) right now seems a little too fitting with the times.  You're talking about people who guessed that things were wrong long before anyone realized it, and seem to be using their words to support your current stance and why things will continue to slide. (this of course not including the more recent statements of people you have included).

I will say your inflamatory comments on DWOT's blog hurt a little bit...especially since I just checked...And I have a higher accuracy than you, by over 8%..No hard feelings tho

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#11) On July 12, 2008 at 8:25 AM, abitare (50.62) wrote:

ALCON,

Thanks for the replies.

awallejr

"the more people turn bearish and doom and gloom, the closer we may be to a bottom. "

Sure, "time heels all wounds", but you have to stop the bleeding first. Which we have not.  The 1970s were horrible for stocks. Finally in the 80s Volkner took interests rates to 20%, which killed the commodity market and saved the dollar. So how close are we to raising rates to 20%? Nixon also closed the gold window and instituted price controls.

Here is what I called for on my 30 Dec 07 post. I expect things to get much worse if Israel attacks Iran, I expect the market to fall even more.

2) S&P500 falls 25% from its 2007 high to 1182

Why 1182? That would be an exact 25% drop from the 1576 high the S&P500 index reached in mid-October of this year. History shows that a stock market drops 15-30% when housing markets fail. “Easy Al Greenspan” and “the slice and dice any manner of junk and pass on the risk to your clients” investment banking paradigm triggered the biggest housing bubble in US history. The unwind from the height has already been severe – by some measures the most severe since the Great Depression – but it has further to go. So we are daring to forecast that the fall in the major US index would lie at the extreme end of the scale before we see the light at the end of the tunnel.

4) USDSGD falls to 1.4000, but then rises back to 1.6000 (now 1.6000)

6) At least three of the largest 10 US homebuilders will go bankrupt

As 2007 draws to a close, many of the stocks for the largest home construction outfits in the US are rallying after Bush rolled out his desperate attempt to stem the subprime tidal wave by fiddling with rate reset mechanisms and implementing other measures that all seem like pumping medicine into a dead horse.These measures are too little and too late, as the last phases of the US housing boom were one of the worst examples of overextension by any industry ever – driven by excess liquidity (see S&P500 prediction above).Why is it that we think we need to abolish the economic cycle? The unwind of this bubble will continueand we think at least three of the largest US homebuilders could go bankrupt in 2008. If you are reluctant to go short stocks on this story, find companies that specialise in legal services. Why? This situation has the potential for endless lawsuits as this legal precedent-setting legislative proposal is guaranteed to produce a feeding frenzy for lawyers if no one else… To save you a bit of time, the tickers for the largest ten US home builders, as of this writing, are DHI, TOL, CTX, PHM, NVR, LEN, KBH, RYL, BHS, and MTH.

7) Chinese stock market falls 40% by late summer

8) Grain Prices to double – again!

9) World oil prices accelerate to $175

"sell in May and go away"

I am a strong believer in this. dwot had a good post.

blade5adj

"but your predominantly bearish stance (correct me if I'm wrong) right now seems a little too fitting with the times. "

I have run up 6800 points in 12 months, I would guess so. Also to have a green thumb on a stock that is down 12% and a market down 13% and have CAP points, because it did not fall as much as the overall market is kind of silly to me. It is still worse then holding CASH.

I was bullish on stocks and commodities in July 07. I turned bearish on stocks in Aug 07. I am neutral/outperform on commodities. 

I will say your inflamatory comments on DWOT's blog hurt a little bit...especially since I just checked...And I have a higher accuracy than you, by over 8%..No hard feelings tho

Lol, abitarePERFECT is 69% with 2000 points with the same timeline as you. Catania chases points.

Proverbs 23:13
Withhold not correction from the child: for if though beatest him with the rod, he shall not die.

Or

Proverbs 29:15, 17
15 The rod and reproof give wisdom: but a child left to himself bringeth his mother to shame.

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#12) On July 15, 2008 at 12:47 AM, awallejr (76.17) wrote:

K well if you are predicting grain prices to double, then why aren't you long Ag stocks like I have been advising?  Notice how Mos and Agu are climbing again after their correction?  Those end of the month earnings reports are approaching (buy those August calls at least in real life).

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