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abitare (99.43)

Jim Rogers "The dollar is going to loose it's status as the world's reserve currency" 25Feb08

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February 26, 2008 – Comments (13) | RELATED TICKERS: C , BAC

Jim Rogers interview on 25 Feb 08 with Bloomberg is OUTSTANDING, the best 27 minutes of financial information available: 

Highlights Jim Rogers on Bloomberg 25Feb08 Minute interview: 

"Agriculture best place to be, maybe silver maybe palladium"

1:40 "inflation is going to be much, much worse... the price of most food is going to go up" 

"Oil may down, but it will not stay down... I don't see where the supply is going to come from"

03:32 "all bubbles end badly, Ireland has a property bubble... every bubble in history of the world ends badly"

"I have never seen a soft landing in the history of the world... I know politicians and banker" 

"I am short all the investment banks in America, I have no intention of covering, Citibank, BAC" 

0540 "I see hard times for Banks and finance...anybody in that business is tainted and the stocks will not due well" 

"the US is in recession. The government lies about it...[retail, housing, automobiles]...

0756 "Japanese did the same thing and they have not recovered in 18 years"

How low can the dollar go? 

0834 "the British sterling lost 80% when it losts it's status as the worlds reserve currency... the dollar is going to go down a great deal"

"I am buying the Swiss frank, the Yen and the Rhinibi"

"The dollar is going to loose it's status as the median of exchange... just as a the Sterling did...it's enemies will move away and then its friends will move away...it will be a snowball effect"

"Debasing the currency will not work in the long term." 

"I am not optimistic on finance" 

1410 "as long as the Central Bank keeps making mistakes...we will have the same thing that happened to the Japanese, perhaps it will be the worse recession that we have had in a long time" 

"Central bank of America is going from one bubble to another bubble. All of this printing money has not done much for America, it has been good for Wall street"

"I much prefer commodities. it is not a time for me to be buying stocks...I buying cotton, sugar, coffee"

"I hope to get out of my US dollars" 

"Commodities are going to go up regardless, due to supply and demand" 

"Iranians are trading oil in Euro right now"

"Wind power is not competitive. Solar power is not competitive right now." 

"American politicians love biofuel...you can buy votes" 

On the election,  

"Whoever wins does not seem to understand America is way over extended"

2347 "America is terribly overextended"

"I am still short homebuilders" 

"Central banks are still printing money. It is going to go into inflation or going to go into commodities" 

"printing money is going to make the recession longer" 

"Same mistake the Japanese made" 

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 26, 2008 at 1:54 AM, saunafool (98.67) wrote:

I like Jim Rogers. I read "Hot Commodities" about 3 years ago. I've been whipping the market ever since. My big realization was that all the industries everyone called down & out for my whole life: iron ore, coal, oil drillers, heavy machinery--once we got to the bottom of the cycle, it takes a long time for supply to catch up to demand again.

Companies can't just go out and start a new mine for iron ore or gold, without tons of permits. Companies won't build a new assembly plant for mining equipment unless they think the demand is going to be there for the next 20 years. Otherwise, they will just increase lead times and build a huge backlog, making the customers wait.

Leading to a greater shortfall of the minerals or other commodities they are mining.

I also agree that our government and central bank are acting just like the Japanese. Don't make everyone write off all the bad debt and hope you can devalue your currency enough to get out of it. Looks like a long, sluggish road ahead for America.

And, no, McCain, Obama, and Hillary are all clueless about what is happening in the economy. McCain thinks he can give more money to the rich, keep supply side policies pumping cash to Wall Street and thinks everything will be fine. The Dems are pushing to bail out all the people who have the bad debts. 

 

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#2) On February 26, 2008 at 6:15 AM, TMFDeej (99.47) wrote:

Excellent post.  I absolutely agree with a ton of what Rogers said.  I only wich that I had seen the light three years ago instead of just one.  Oh well, there's still plenty of time.

 Deej

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#3) On February 26, 2008 at 10:25 AM, abitare (99.43) wrote:

Thank you both for th replies.

sauna,

We are aligned in thinking. Commodities have been and will be the place to be, as far as I can see. 

TMFDeej,

Yep, I am late to the party also. But I think there is splenty of time in the cycle. 

FYI - JR endorsed Ron Paul earlier this year. He made a couple of statements at Hillary, Obama and McCain in the interview.

Bloomberg, did a short write up of the interview here:

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Hedge Fund with George Soros, talks with reporters in Dublin about the U.S. economic outlook, his forecast for the dollar this year and his investment strategy. The dollar has fallen against 12 of the 16 most-active currencies this year on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep cutting its benchmark interest rate to revive growth. (Source: Bloomberg)

00:00 Bets on agriculture stocks, global inflation
01:45 Food inventories and oil prices
03:03 Irish economic outlook; selling U.S. banks
06:45 U.S. "in recession, going to get worse"
08:37 Dollar, yuan, Swiss Franc, yen and euro
09:31 Says dollar will lose reserve currency status
12:30 U.S. stocks and Fed's "mistakes"
15:25 Agricultural stocks; dollar to rally in 2008
19:53 Outlook for investing in renewable energy
22:09 U.S. presidential election, war in Iraq
23:56 Credit crisis, bank liquidity, interest rates

Running time 27:20

Last Updated: February 25, 2008 12:26 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJiDffzBIFuY 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQzSSg9fdHJg 

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#4) On February 26, 2008 at 2:09 PM, themattgrdt (99.88) wrote:

Good stuff man! I don't know much about commodities, but a few of your blog posts have been really helpful in building a rudimentary understanding.

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#5) On February 26, 2008 at 4:25 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.65) wrote:

nice post, personally i only go long commodities after they pull back, I don't like chasing anything in 2008

 i don't see the dow making much headway over its 50 day moving average.......  this was a pure technical rally... nothing but bad news has come out for a month and the market has rallied... with that said, I still hold a two small long positions and a boatload of SKF...  I would be much wealthier if I traded SKF...  I just didn't think the bulls had this much in them

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#6) On February 26, 2008 at 5:37 PM, abitare (99.43) wrote:

fb,

I am with you on SKF, it is a long term hold for me. This rally I believe is people / funds getting out of cash. The FED has shown it does not care about inflation or the dollar. So people are moving back into the market buying anything to get out of cash and squeezing shorts. RTH has a 305% short interest.

Take a listen to the interview. JR is buying commodies that are out of favor, silver, palladium, coffee, cotton, sugar [not gold or oil]

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#7) On February 26, 2008 at 5:56 PM, bridgeboy0 (99.82) wrote:

Silver and palladium are OUT of favor?!?!?  I'm not sure where you're getting your info, but I don't agree with it.  Those are 2 of the hottest commodities right now.

I'm sorry to hear that you and FB didn't take your profits in SKF.  I hate to see people lose (not loose) money.

 Bridgeboy

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#8) On February 26, 2008 at 6:33 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

how about gcc

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#9) On February 26, 2008 at 8:32 PM, abitare (99.43) wrote:

bb,

Sorry good catch. JR liked silver, palladium, coffee, cotton, sugar. JR typically likes out of favor commodities.

I am in SKF 100-106. I am not to hurt....I will take my CAP SKF call over yours (-32 vs -64), my CAPS pick was the night before Helo Ben paniced on 1/22. I bought SKF with a limit order under $106 :O

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#10) On February 26, 2008 at 11:17 PM, Tastylunch (29.95) wrote:

excellent post abitarecatania as usual, Jim Rogers has  some really unique insight in the current environment. Too many of the big name pundits/politicians do not understand commodities and currency and their effect on the economy very well

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#11) On February 27, 2008 at 7:37 AM, abitare (99.43) wrote:

tl,

politicians do not understand commodities and currency

Concur here is one that does Ron Paul:

One that does not Marcy Kaptur: 

 

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#12) On February 27, 2008 at 2:20 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

In following the trends I follow the money. What new trend is in. As the t.v. ads are touting is foxex curriencies trading. Who is backing the curriencies trading and who will make the money on each and every transaction and that is who you need to follow to find the new emerging trend.

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#13) On October 16, 2010 at 1:50 PM, Cressida (37.14) wrote:

Then, Iquadland, follow Asia because that's where the money is.

 I realize your blog was written in Feb 2008,  but it was true then as now, in 2010 and will be onward for a decade.  (Rogers' comment, not mine)

However , even Rogers stated he's not sure what currency  he'll buy right now although he's got euros, and gold, silver, but is out of dollars entirely.

I'm waiting too, and buying short term stocks and long term EFT's. (HAP and YAO). A real possibility is that we will see the Chinese reminbi (or yuan) become the world's currency of choice.

Flush Forex; they are guessing.  Rogers will cut thru to the bottomline and I'll follow.  I trust his tracking intelligence.

 

 

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