Job Losses Growing
July 02, 2008
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ADP Says U.S. Companies Decreased Payrolls by 79,000
By Bob Willis
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 79,000 jobs in June, a private survey based on payroll data showed.
The ADP report, which doesn't include government jobs, overstated private employment by about 111,000 jobs a month on average for the first five months of the year.
ADP was forecast to show a decline of 20,000.....
A loss of about 80K vs a forecast of 20K....or 4X the forecast.
Many businesses in America are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. So are government revenues. In this environment, the job losses will only increase causing even further slowdowns. It is hard to buy a house or car without a job.
Some of you can't understand my forecasting 30% unemployment. The number is not intended to be shocking, simply a mathematical estimate based on how the inputs are calculated.
For example, right now the government is considering extending unemployment benefits. If this happens, you can expect a number of people currently not counted as unemployed to reapply for benefits and increase the statistical count of unemployed workers.
As spouses and retired people reenter the workforce to search for jobs, that will increase the count of unemployed workers. The same holds true for those released from their jobs.
Once you add up the job losses, people reentering the work force, and effect from extention of benefits, we could easily see 30% unemployment by the end of the year......in the mean time, you might be shocked by the likely increase in July.
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