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alstry (35.96)

Jobs are NOW a LEADING INDICATOR

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October 17, 2009 – Comments (6)

When America was a producing economy, job losses were a lagging indicator.  As demand increased, companies would produce more with less for a while until they were forced to hire to keep up with rising demand. 

Now we are a consumer economy.  We accomplished growth most recently by extending credit to the consumer after 9/11 which immediately translated into service job creation.... now the focus of our economy.

Since we are contracting credit to the private sector at RECORD rates...it is mathematically impossible for our economy to be growing...even against the incredible deficits destroying the value of the dollar and fueling ponzi spending.  When you have such massive layoffs, wage cuts, and business shut downs day after day, week after week, month after month as we are experiencing......the only logical conclusion one can reach is America is currently in the process of shutting down....much faster than many perceive.

Providing clear evidence of America shutting down is foreclosures at record levels and bankrupctcies exploding.....supporting this is the incredible number of job cuts and business closures making press.  These closures are not geographically concentrated or industry specific.  By the law of large numbers, it is obvious that most every business and government entity is suffering and cutting across the nation, even affecting health care.....and if most are cutting and few are hiring....we are shrinking at an incredible rate......which is confirmed by the evaporating tax receipts.

Based on the Alstrynomic theory of concentric contraction...as we get smaller and smaller, the rate of contraction will accelerate as fewer and fewer will have to support more and more.

Bankruptcy Filing In Nevada Jumps 64 Percent 

Pepsi Shutting Down Eugene Bottling Plant  

TomoTherphy - 10% of Global Workforce

NY Times Wont Rule Out Layoffs At Boston Globe

Kansas City - 16 Officers Jobs 

Cadbury (International) - Unions wants Answers on Layoffs

Slipgate Ironworks - Round of Layoffs

Clear One Health Plans Inc. - 25

Save - A - Pet in Greyslake - 40% Reduction in Staff

Microtune - 10% of Workforce

Conde Nast - 7 More Layoffs Today? 

Viking Range Corporation - 30

Current Media - More Layoffs / Outsourcing? 

Update: NH Department of Corrections - 37

AM General - 250

Bossier City - 88

Wired.com - 2

Calumet City - 47 School Crossing Guards, 6 Officers, 4 Inspectors 

Seaside Ca Firefighters - Layoffs Likely

Gerdau Ameristeel - Continues Layoffs 

Lackawanna County - 30

Verizon ( Delaware ) - 66

Bristol Myers Reduces Abilify Sales Force by 25%

MetLife Inc. - 34

Merrill Corporation in St Cloud - Layoffs?

Baldwin School Officials Oks Job Cuts

Gov Patrick ( Boston ) - 2,000 Jobs Could be Cut

Stanley Furniture Company - Layoffs to Be Announced in December

Berrien County - 3

Iowa - 1,000+ Layoffs Expected

University of Manitoba ( International ) - Layoffs Coming?

City of Elgin - 11

Bossier City - Layoff Numbers today at 10am

All San Diego City Departments - Job Cuts?

Right Pro Hardware Store

Coletta's Lamps and Shades in Warwick

Taste a Downtown San Luis Business Closing

Champlain Bridge Closes Indefinitely Due to Safety Issues

Fiesta Auto Center in Leon Valley

Morgan's Creek Nursery in Calimesa 

Sears closing Palm Beach Mall Store

Old Town Outfitters in Rock Hill SC

Smith Medical PM Inc closing Pewaukee Plant - 100 layoffs

Carlyle & Co Jewelers closing all 34 Stores 

Pentair Inc Closing Plant in Champlin - 200 Layoffs

Mama Gaia in Downtown Howell

Lone Star Steakhouse and Saloon in Tuscaloosa

Kmart in Titusville Closes Sunday

Reepham Brewery ( International )

Racine Produce in Elmwood Plaza

Jurgens & Holtvluwer Store in Grand Rapids

Sonoma Airporter

Cicero Restaurant 

Pittman Jewelers in Clayton

Hawker Beechcraft possibly closing Salina Plant

Update: Pfizer Closing Bridgewater Plant in 2010

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 17, 2009 at 12:29 AM, awallejr (79.49) wrote:

Never has been never will be due to simple logic, a concept that eludes you.  ALL initial recoveries are jobless, simply because companies wait to rehire  until business improves.  It REALLY IS as simple as that.  But hey keep up the misleading BS.  Those listening to your adivice can continue to lose opportunities.

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#2) On October 17, 2009 at 12:31 AM, alstry (35.96) wrote:

In case you Fools have some well grounded belief that 30-50% unemployment will have a significant impact on our economy and our lifestyle......

It ain't even close to the convulsions we will experience if our dollar loses acceptance in the world from our massive deficit.....

What is $1.42 trillion? It's more than the total national debt for the first 200 years of the Republic, more than the entire economy of India, almost as much as Canada's, and more than $4,700 for every man, woman and child in the United States.

From Zero Hedge:

A week ago the world was split into two camps: those who said Robert Fisk was an idiot and that anyone who believes him is a tinfoil hat wearing paranoid sociopath, and those who said Robert Fisk was brilliant and that anyone who does not believe him is an unimaginative, unintelligent, conservative boor. Yet nobody tried to confirm or deny his data. Today, Russia's Prime Minister and de facto viceroy Vladimir Putin finally made it clear that the presumably insane Fisk was not making stuff up.

Breaking: Iran Says It Will Soon Exclude The Dollar From The Country's Foreign Revenues And Reserves

It looks like WAR is getting closer and closer.........but it seems the Mainstream media thinks you are too stupid to understand the import of a collasing dollar due to running a massive defcit with little hope of closing it.

No wonder GS is raping Aemrica for every last dime before there is nothing left to take.....and you question why it can buy our entire government????

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#3) On October 17, 2009 at 7:21 AM, fmahnke (86.27) wrote:

Jobs have always been a leading indicator (in my mind) that CNBC has either chese to ignore or point to past recessions where they have indeed lagged.

What I think makes this recession different are two factors. One is the state and municipal gov't jobs which you have pointed to sooo often,  What I don't understand here is why no politicans have the couraage to address the pension issue.  I understand that people are entitled to what they have earned, but going forward we need to make cuts, particulary when it comes to double dipping and the idea that people quit for one day so that they can collect a salary and a pension. How can let this happen when the average family struggle to pay for the basics.

The second factor relates to the political agenda of the current administration.  How can businesses expand employment in the US with the uncertainty of Crap and Fade and healh care reform

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#4) On October 17, 2009 at 8:55 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

alstry.. please stop. Your destroying this site. Go outside and take a breather for a bit please.

 

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#5) On October 17, 2009 at 9:10 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

One thing greatly overlooked by most:

Perhaps the "crash" was bull scat, and the consolidation of business and the cutting of fat from payrolls and government is actually very good for the economy.  Hence, the "recovery" is being justified, but is actually just a return to reality.

The market is about where it should be, perhaps.

Maybe we're exactly where we should really be...even with the unemployment levels as high as they are.  While many may wish this wasn't true, and that we should really be at Dow 6000 or less, with the dollar going down in value, interest rates in the toilet and gold bubbling, a much better place to put your "money" is into something - a real asset that actually does something for you personally or for other people in your state, country or across the globe.

The market does not reflect the economy, but instead it reflect economics of the market ecosystem.  Efficient companies are worth more than inefficient companies inherently.

Here's an example of how people have looked at the market in the past.

The market was lean an mean for many years.  Then it became bloated, as did spending by the companies that composed the market.  But that bloating was recognized as valuable, because those companies were displaying "prosperous" window dressing in the form of buying more than was needed, hiring more than were needed, stocking more than was needed, paying more dividends than made sense, etc.

Smart companies have taken the opportunity to "get fit" over the last year or two.  This has made them more valuable, especially because they are still able to meet demand, innovate and also because the world is not shrinking, which gives them even more opportunity.  Conversely, current business competition IS shrinking, thus giving greater market share to the standing, more efficient companies who made it out alive.

The market companies are leveraging the long tail (read about it in Wikipedia).  There is a lower common denominator.  If you can't sell a $100 item to 100 people then sell a $10 item to 1,000 people.  With technology, it can be done, and is being done.  That's why Tech has led this thing.

I think we're fairly valued and may spend a long while between Dow 9000 and 12000, but it is very likely we could even push past our beginning 14000 because of the new value companies are bringing, not in jobs but in solid, upward trending revenues that has been enabled by the global technology revolution.

Fool on! 

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#6) On October 22, 2009 at 5:24 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

buildgreen: It's "you're", please conjugate correctly.  And he's not destroying the site.  If anyone is, it's the pennystock guy that always spams.  At least Alstry always posts real news and events and not some scam.

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