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John Williams of On Hyperinflationary Depression



May 02, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV

An interview of John Williams by Howard Ruff:

John Williams publishes the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter. He is an amazing professional economist with a great grasp of the real economy. He and I have arrived at the same conclusions about almost everything in the economy, despite the fact that we approach it from totally different directions: me from the fundamentals, and he from a real technical and numbers point of view.

I am now in John’s home in Oakland, California, looking past the government numbers to get his views on the world as it really is. Shadow Government Statistics reconstructs published government statistics the accurate way we used to do it that reflects reality, rather than the way these numbers are now manipulated, and comes up with different conclusions about the economy, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and other revealing areas published by government.

I trust John’s numbers because the government has been manipulating and restating these numbers for purely political purposes.

HJR: John is it necessary to recreate government statistics to show what you feel is reality, and how have you recreated them? I’d like some examples.

JW: Howard, I’ve been a consulting economist for about 27 years. I found early on that to make meaningful forecasts I had to have accurate information. It was evident early on that there were big inaccuracies in government reporting I surveyed at a convention of the National Association of Business Economists. Some economists have to make real-world forecasts, as opposed to economists who are employed by Wall Street to come to up with happy stories to encourage people to buy stocks and bonds.

Read the full article....

It's an interesting discussion as Howard Ruff values fundamental analysis, while John values technical indicators, yet they arrive at the same conclusion: hyperinflation will arrive - it's just a question of when. Other than that, nothing mind blowing. The government numbers are baloney. We all know that. 

David in Qatar

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 03, 2009 at 12:51 AM, starbucks4ever (85.73) wrote:

Shadowstats is a good site where one can convince himself that government books are cooked. I personally didn't benefit from this knowledge at all because I never doubted that in the first place, but I guess for some people out there it must be a revelation. It's not that I couldn't be surprised with the amount of creative accounting, but it would really take VERY creating accounting to surprise me. For example, if I learned that inflation last year was 10% instead of the official 0%, now THAT would be a surprise, but anything short of that would just match my expectations.

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