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Just a simple market prediction...

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January 26, 2010 – Comments (22) | RELATED TICKERS: KOOL , AID

It just came to me...

I'm predicting the market will be higher on Feb. 12, 2010 than where it is at today.

And that's not all.

I'm also predicting the market will be lower at the end of this week than where it is at today.

Quite a curveball, don't you think?

It must be this Kool-Aid I'm drinking (it's all TSIF's fault)...

p.s. 1

Today, S&P 500 is at 1,096.78.

p.s. 2

I hope I'm wrong as I promised myself I want be posting anything new for 2 months if I'm wrong with this prediction...trying to fight this addiction...

22 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 26, 2010 at 12:24 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

You will be wrong on this week's call for sure.

I'm pretty sure you will be correct on your Feb 12th call.

So if you're right on one and wrong on the other where does your promise stand...you won't be able to post anything new for one month instead of two, or the bet with yourself is off?

I think either one month or two months is a little too severe of a punishment for making a market call incorrect, but easing off on the Koolaid might be a good idea.

 

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#2) On January 26, 2010 at 1:43 AM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

My two favorite pickers are at odds. I guess i'll be forced to predict my own prediction.

Higher this week, lower Feb 12th. Not just because you left that option untouched.

I am liking Columbia's charts, and i think that the market ripples are going to get harder. March is not far away, and neither more or less QE will make everybody happy. 

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#3) On January 26, 2010 at 6:40 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I like this. 3 different predictions...

Let's see who's right and let's see who's not gonna be posting anything for two months... :)

Good Luck Guys!

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#4) On January 26, 2010 at 8:29 AM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

Ahhhh, here's a good deal for me; I rarely post, and know nothing. Therefore i risk nothing.

You are both post addicts and have reputations, you risk much.

But we have no real idea which way the market will go, so i have even odds.

If i lose nobody notices, or remembers. If i win i get to brag about it for two months without rebuttal, and become a small legend.

cool.

-solaris  ;-) (don't worry, i won't hold ya'll to it!)

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#5) On January 26, 2010 at 11:27 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Solaris, I just noticed there is one more option nobody picked: lower at the end of this week, and lower on 2/12.

So there is a chance all 3 of us might be wrong... :)

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#6) On January 26, 2010 at 1:05 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Goodness Solaris, even considering your score, you're awful hard up for role models!  :)

Solaris call was my second choice.  Feb 12th allows a lot of screw ups by the Fed/Pres/Government to wash into the markets and a lot of investors to turn turtle, but I'll stick to my original call.

All three of wrong and not posting for two months.  My, how some other CAPS players must be turning VERY bearish right now.  A little portfolio loss compared to shutting the three of us up must have them salivating!

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#7) On January 29, 2010 at 4:11 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

It's the end of the week, and S&P is down to 1073.

DLZ 1, TSIF 0, Solaris 0. :)

 

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#8) On January 29, 2010 at 7:37 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

The banks, who control investment in a large chunk of the equities were madder at Obama than I gave them credit for.  Geithner getting the thumbs up also didn't help as much as I thought.

Good short term call. Market looks pretty pessimistic, but I think you may survive until Feb 12thm but that's a lot of ground to make up.

 -TSIF

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#9) On January 30, 2010 at 1:13 AM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

Well done DLZ. Two weeks till Feb 12th?

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#10) On February 10, 2010 at 7:12 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Only 2 more days left. S&P is at 1068. What seemed impossible (1097) just a few days ago, now seems well within reach. But will it happen...?

What do you guys think now? Wouldn't you say we had so many weird days lately that it's harder to make any predictions today than it was just 2 weeks ago?

p.s.

I hope you know what I think... :) 

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#11) On February 11, 2010 at 4:20 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

PLUS 10 today, nice one day run, especially after the start this morning, but you can't make up 18 points in one day, especially a Friday.....

It's looking like a tie for Dragon and Solaris, and two gutter balls for TSIF.  Half right or all wrong, it's hard to make money off this market in the short run. 

 

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#12) On February 11, 2010 at 7:05 PM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

I'm on vacation and have not been on the net in almost a week, but i don't know if your gonna' get 18 points tomorrow.

My computer won't work, and i can't really get access very often right now. My picks that i had been wanting to drop are passing into green and then bouncing back to red. I am kinda' stuck. 

I'm so stuck that i wish i had a qualified person to watch my account for the next month and close all the 'right' picks for me. . . 

 

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#13) On February 15, 2010 at 12:39 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

First of all, Solaris, if you are still on vacation, I hope you are enjoying it. If you are back, I hope you had a good and relaxing one. 

So, I lost the bet. The market didn't really do what i thought it will, even though it tried real hard to come back from that drop.

However, I don't know if one can actually say that I was wrong as the stocks from my CAPS portfolio performed just as I predicted.

My score and my rating are higher today than where they were 2 weeks ago (last week I beat market 4 out of 5 days, meaning my stocks come back vigorously while the market didn't quite succeed).

I also expected a good Fri, and while it didn't happen for the market, my portfolio was up 136 points (I checked, and not many fools had point-gain that high).

So basically what I'm trying to say is that my portfolio performed exactly as I predicted (one week drop, two week pop), but the problem is that S&P 500 doesn't have stocks as good I my portfolio does.

So can you really hold that against me?

Just kidding. I know I was wrong and I will shut up for 3 months.

Good Luck to both of you.

p.s.

I created an experimental portfolio over the weekend. I think I'll do wonders with it. Taking a different approach (but will still base my picks on my chart-eyeballing methodology. Like always, no FA whatsoever).

:)

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#14) On February 15, 2010 at 3:25 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Banishing yourself is just Foolish, even for you.  Maybe making no more market predictions for awhile while your bruises heal, but not sure what you mean by no more posts.

I think pitching and blogging are fair. Your punishment should be no more market calls for three months. That should have you sitting on your hands and biting your fingers, and be enough of a penalty box.....

You hadn't posted the no posting rule when I made my call. I'm zero for two and I'm not going to honor it....I will abide to no more market calls for three months. 

TSIF

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#15) On February 16, 2010 at 2:18 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, the bet I'm taking about is the bet I had with myself.

The bet with Solaris and you wasn't "for real" so I'm not holding it against you guys (btw., all 3 of us lost, and Mr. Market won).

Your suggestion for me of no more market predictions for 3 months sounds fair. I'll take that.

I wanted to punish myself with no posting whatsoever (for the sake of having a happier wife), but I'm afraid I'm just to addicted.

Will try to gradually spend less and less time on CAPS.

Good Luck!

p.s.

I see your bet on market coming back (green-thumbing bull ETFs and red-thumbing bear ETFs) is paying off. You are back to 99+ rating. Congrats. I hope I'll be right behind you. I see Solaris is also having a good day. Finally... :)

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#16) On February 16, 2010 at 4:24 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Balance, young grasshopper....set yourself some time limits on "playing"..... :)

I'm hoping my market calls do come back. I got two of the 15 back today.  My play of adding 5 each time the market has a 1% or more down day resulted in three sets of 5 during that market dump.  I've never had 15 open at one time.  The earliest ones are still deep in the red. If I can get them back in the next few months it's worth 2% in accuracy.  Now if the calls on my garbage stocks would cooperate. EARI.PK is killing me the last 5 days. It spiked to $12 this morning temporarily and had me negative on the day.  One equity pulling down a hundred other up picks....ouch!

I've been "better" about making the garbage calls that are "low dollar"  $2 doubles and triples easier than a $20 PALG.OB type of call if it mis-behaves for awhile.

Market is pretty washy. I'll be closing my market calls as they get above 5 points each. Hopefully I can close a few this week.

Good call on ENT!

Good tasty blog! :)

Good luck!

TSIF 

 

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#17) On February 17, 2010 at 1:30 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

#13) On February 15, 2010 at 12:39 PM, dragonLZ (99.02) wrote:

First of all, Solaris, if you are still on vacation...

 

#14) On February 15, 2010 at 3:25 PM, TSIF (99.02) wrote:

Banishing yourself is just Foolish, even for you...

 

 

Tied at 99.02...  :)

Good Luck.

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#18) On February 17, 2010 at 1:41 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I think for the first time we are in a position where you will be doing better if the market goes up, and I will do better (lose less points) if the market goes down just because of your ETF picks. But I might be wrong. I might do better either way :)

Thanks for noticing my ENT pick. It was kind of a lucky one as last Thursday, I wanted to take a look at ENTR's chart and accidentaly entered a wrong ticker symbol. After my 10-sec chart eye-balling analysis, I decided I liked both and entered them as my picks (ENTR for the scond time in 2 weeks).

Tasty post was my attempt to show how CAPS members can sometimes read a stock (company) correctly, even though people involved with the company are trying to convince you: "We are a great company to invest in."

Thanks and Good Luck. 

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#19) On February 17, 2010 at 1:58 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Check out my replies to your ZUMZ pitch...

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#20) On February 17, 2010 at 6:25 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Have you guys seen that market finished over 1097 today meaning I was just 2 days early on my prediction?

Can I at least get half a point for that?

:)

Let's now see if I was close (early, but close) with my next prediction that 1151 is coming between 2/20 and 3/1...

p.s. I'm not breaking the "silence promise", 1151 is my old prediction...

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#21) On February 18, 2010 at 10:55 AM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

Hi folks.

 

Just dropping by our little 'private haunt' in the only ten minutes i get to spend on the net in the last two weeks (and probably the next two also),

My score is suffering the lack of attention during the turnaround. Frustrating.

I'm going to go try and close some picks.

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#22) On February 18, 2010 at 11:48 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Try to hold any near positive that you think might recover at some point. The accuracy piece of the score is very important. Some weeks I work on accuracy, and some weeks points. Too bad I can't get both at the same time, but something always goes the opposite direction!

Yes Dragon, I saw your comment on ZUMZ which is why I held it open even after it went positive by 0.56.  I normally close wrong way picks when I'm lucky enough to be able to, but based on your recommendation I'm going for +5 on this one and the accuracy bank!

In regard to your being half right, just off on timing...sorry, no cigar, no half points.  All right or all wrong when dealing with money! :)

Hard to believe the market is beating after unemployment and prices were both up.  It is a bull trend, but no idea how long it will last. I'm not allowed to say so even if I had an idea!  :)

Go get 'em.

 

 

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