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goldminingXpert (29.55)

just put green thumbs on the ultrashorts.

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December 08, 2008 – Comments (44)

Market appears to have topped out just over 900 on the S&P and right at 9000 on the Dow. We should get a nasty reversal here as everyone I talk to is bullish until after Christmas... you know what that means. Just loaded up some of the FAZ (3x bear financials) for the personal account.

44 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 08, 2008 at 1:37 PM, semper77 (33.37) wrote:

I'm going to guess that you're about 500 Dow points early on this call, but regardless, you'll eventually get the opportunity to get out with a profit anyway...

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#2) On December 08, 2008 at 1:42 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

we'll see. I was early but correct on my red thumb the ultrashorts from a couple weeks ago. Finally closed a lot of those picks today +10 to +15 points--not the amount of points I was hoping for, but good enough.

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#3) On December 08, 2008 at 1:42 PM, kdakota630 (29.76) wrote:

LOL!  Semper77, I was thinking the exact same thing.

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#4) On December 08, 2008 at 1:47 PM, Harold71 (20.30) wrote:

Short term WHO KNOWS... nobody.

Long term I agree 100% with David Tice...he has a recent interview up on Bloomberg.com.

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#5) On December 08, 2008 at 1:56 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Harold, not to toot my own horn, but I've been market timing the ultrashort/longs for almost a year now and have closed 1 pick in the red... a TWM pick ended at -0.01 points due to CAPS data feed error. Other than that, I've never lost points with a market timing pick here. While no one knows anything for certain, those of us with 100 ratings have a better than 50% odds of making a good guess.

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#6) On December 08, 2008 at 2:02 PM, semper77 (33.37) wrote:

No doubt, GMX. Always better to be a little early than late in bear market like this one. These will eventually be winners for you too, I'm sure of it.

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#7) On December 08, 2008 at 2:05 PM, Schmacko (44.40) wrote:

I just bought back into DXD in personal account earlier today and green thumbed it in CAPs due to a similar line of thinking as gold.  If the DOW does go up another 500 pts I'll probably cost average down.  I feel pretty confident making the prediction that the DOW will at least go back down to 8000 again within the next two months.

I can't mess with the triple leveraged ETFs though.  Those things are scary.

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#8) On December 08, 2008 at 2:16 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

Funny I was thinking the same thing. Looks like Alstry is as well...

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#9) On December 08, 2008 at 2:36 PM, jstegma (29.44) wrote:

I think you're gonna get burned on that 3x bear financials.  We are about due for a decent relief rally. 

On the 3x stuff if you go in the wrong direction to start out, it takes a long time to get back where you started.

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#10) On December 08, 2008 at 2:42 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

jstegma, have you not seen the last two days? We went from 815 to 910 S&P just like that. There's your rally.

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#11) On December 08, 2008 at 2:58 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

hmm didn't get confirmation move I wanted I'll hold off for now.

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#12) On December 08, 2008 at 3:42 PM, FAHayek (75.82) wrote:

Shorting will work, but beware of floors installed by the socialist central planing push, it seems every day the congress is about to give free money and regulate the market likes it and going forward I see the liberal congress doing a whole lot of it. Other wise, go for it and remember pick up some good companies while there multiples are bellow 3x and hold, they will be beaten down too. Do it slowly and you will be happy in 10 years.  

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#13) On December 08, 2008 at 4:15 PM, GNUBEE (24.25) wrote:

GMX, I too garnered some CAPS points on the red thumb of 5 ultra shorts, adding a positive 93.5 points sure does help in these times.

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#14) On December 08, 2008 at 4:49 PM, dexion10 (27.87) wrote:

COULDN'T AGREE MORE

 

I BELIEVE I WILL LEAP FROG INTO THE TOP 1000 WITHIN TWO WEEKS.

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#15) On December 08, 2008 at 7:07 PM, barich1 (39.19) wrote:

Thanks GMX, I for one always appreciate hearing your opinion on this particular subject every time, keep making it public.  Please let it be known when you are getting out too.  I appreciate you differentiating whether you are talking about caps picks vs real money too.  I don't use the info to piggy back in Caps, I have seen your timing right enough times now that I weigh this information into my real portfolio decisions.

  I am expecting down days ahead myself, I have closed a few long positions and have a couple left but have not gone so far as to buy into ultra shorts.  If we have one more good up day to get over 9100, then I will commit.

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#16) On December 08, 2008 at 7:26 PM, MLGtrader (96.80) wrote:

I think the pullback should be hard and fast (a couple days).  Maybe taking the S&P back to around 800.  But I think there is a good floor in for now.  But it is easy to profit from short term trades like this one.

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#17) On December 08, 2008 at 8:18 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Futures for S&P trading under 900 now, looks like today was the last gasp of this rally. Between the "sell the news" auto reaction, TXN, NSM, and Fedex news, Japan GDP revision sharply downwards and troubles in Australian banks... I think this thing is finally over.

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#18) On December 08, 2008 at 9:17 PM, Harold71 (20.30) wrote:

Hey, I will admit, GMX, your constant score rise has been beyond impressive...I wonder if you may have some bad luck in the FAZ, considering Harold is in it as well....of course Harold has been hanging in FAZ and gotten pummelled in the face. You don't want to hang in the FAZ, at the wrong times...that's for sure.  When it does rise it goes ballistic, it's insane leverage...the nuclear option, as they say.

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#19) On December 08, 2008 at 9:36 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

FAZ will work, don't worry Harold. I bought a 100 share slug today, and will average down if necessary... financials have gone too far too fast.

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#20) On December 08, 2008 at 10:07 PM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

Down down down, here we go! I grabed a few shorts today as well.

Any thoughts on SKF as well? I've done rather well trading this one several times and I've been waiting for it to come back down to 100. Thoughts anybody?

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#21) On December 08, 2008 at 10:23 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

I bought FAZ (3x short financials), so of course I also endorse SKF (2x short financials) at this time.

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#22) On December 08, 2008 at 10:54 PM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

You know there is a decent amount of people out there and on here in Caps that are seemingly bullish...I just don't see how the market can go much higher. From a technical and logical/reasonal standpoint, we have to have a reversal of the current trend. To me, and apparently you, this seems like the easiest time to short and make some quick bling bling. Good luck GMX etc.

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#23) On December 09, 2008 at 12:03 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Good luck to you to Option

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#24) On December 09, 2008 at 12:04 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Good luck to you too* Option

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#25) On December 09, 2008 at 8:30 AM, Gemini846 (46.06) wrote:

GMX what are some of the points you look for when determining that the market is about to turn? The street consensus is we are going to open up on the 9th. Based on the shear volume of top fools ending outperforms (esp in the banking sector) and your call to buy ultrashorts it seems that by lunch time this market is going to be on a bear's plate.

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#26) On December 09, 2008 at 10:41 AM, hansthered0 (< 20) wrote:

This just in - Williams %R says "BUY FAZ"

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAZ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p59236822674

You see how fast I applied that information DEX? Heheh

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#27) On December 09, 2008 at 11:02 AM, guiron (27.05) wrote:

Long term I agree 100% with David Tice...he has a recent interview up on Bloomberg.com.

So, he's basically saying we have about 50% to lose. He was also saying the DJIA would be at 5000 in 2002: http://www.thestreet.com/comment/theturnaroundartist/10056101.html

I think he's probably closer to the mark this time. 

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#28) On December 09, 2008 at 11:45 AM, amassafortune (29.62) wrote:

I agree with Xpert, and started adding shorts today, but will temper with semper's caution that this bear rally may still have legs. There will be selling into the auto announcement, but with the market ignoring news from Dow, Kroger, Sony, UPS, and many others, it may still have some upside. I'll keep adding shorts, but expect we will retest at least 15% of the recent 18% runup.

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#29) On December 09, 2008 at 3:48 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Today is the sort of day I was looking for. Hopefully it will be a harbinger of things to come.

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#30) On December 09, 2008 at 5:20 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

So far so good GMX

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#31) On December 10, 2008 at 1:46 AM, FleaBagger (28.14) wrote:

I placed a limit order for FAZ up to 40.25. It looks like a fun ride.

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#32) On December 10, 2008 at 11:41 AM, FleaBagger (28.14) wrote:

Got it for <39, placed a GTC limit sell order for $80, and my electronic broker said, "Are you sure that's what you meant? Your limit price is significantly different from the market price!"

Ha ha ha! This is one insane picnic! Does anyone even know if FAZ has enough liquidity left to effectively capitalize on a downturn in financials? Yesterday it went up less than SKF did, even though financials were down 4.5% -not an insignificant move.

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#33) On December 10, 2008 at 11:58 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Fleabagger, that's funny. My sell order is at $60, but I reserve the right to move it higher when we get close...

It still is performing relatively well, just a bit off yesterday. The way you make the big coin is on multiple connecting down days. Say from 40 FAZ today, the XLF drops 10%... FAZ gains 30% and goes to 52. Next day, XLF drops another 10%, and you get to compound your gains on those new 12 points... FAZ rises 15 and change rather than 12, suddenly you're at 67 off of a move in XLF from 13.2 to 10.8 or so (XLF traded in the single digits weeks ago.)

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#34) On December 10, 2008 at 12:39 PM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

I'm thinking there will most likely be a little bump up in the market when the big 3 bailout gets passed today/tomorrow. However, I'm holding strong and am not worried about my shorts. This effect will only be temporary, if at all. Don't chicken out everybody, shorts will prove right.

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#35) On December 10, 2008 at 12:40 PM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

I'm thinking there will most likely be a little bump up in the market when the big 3 bailout gets passed today/tomorrow. However, I'm holding strong and am not worried about my shorts. This effect will only be temporary, if at all. Don't chicken out everybody, shorts will prove right.

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#36) On December 10, 2008 at 12:57 PM, kdakota630 (29.76) wrote:

I'm waiting for the bailout to pass to pick SKF and FAZ, but I just read that the vote might not be until Sunday now.

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#37) On December 11, 2008 at 12:00 AM, herztical (28.33) wrote:

I agree; financials have bounced back too fast...consumer credit (credit cards, personal loans, car loans) yet to impact the financials;

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#38) On December 11, 2008 at 3:20 PM, JayWalk39 (< 20) wrote:

Started a small position at $41.04 and like the results so far.  Got a limit order in for $60, so lets keep hoping this market tanks!  :)

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#39) On December 11, 2008 at 4:26 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Jason, keep a close eye on it, these things turn like lightning. That said, I think we'll see $60 soon, glad you hopped in for the trade.

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#40) On December 11, 2008 at 10:14 PM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

Its been a good week so far! However, as you say, things can turn rather quickly so everyone should be prepared to bailout and take your profits if need be. That being said, we have more to fall...

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#41) On December 12, 2008 at 12:58 AM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

Big 3 Bailout was crushed tonight in the senate tonight...Combine that with the dow futures down as well, looks like we are going lower tomorrow. Hold onto your shorts a bit longer, might be a big down market = up shorts day!

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#42) On December 12, 2008 at 1:19 AM, FleaBagger (28.14) wrote:

I start to feel a little guilty for hoping that the market will go down, until I remember that it's just the financials I'm betting against. Everybody owning financials at this point, with what is now public knowledge, is just asking for it.

By the way, gmx, did you see SLW the past few days? It's out of control. When these oversold value centers bottom, it's pretty spectacular from a percentage standpoint. It's the nature of the beast: if you're down 80% on the year, and then recover to down 70% on the year, you've moved up 50% from the bottom.

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#43) On December 12, 2008 at 9:28 AM, Recover22kplan (45.49) wrote:

faz is trading at about 56.00 the bell is going to ring in about 5 min. not far to 60.00

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#44) On December 12, 2008 at 10:42 AM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

Ok ok, I couldn't resist. I still have all of my short positions from last friday/monday that have done super well and I'm watching them closely. But I just picked up some more FAZ @ 51.52. I am hoping for a big market fall today and thus small quick gain in FAZ because of the Big 3 bailout failure. I set a stop limit at 50.50 because this small amount is purely speculative and this will limit any potential loss. Its fun to roll the dice a bit with small amounts of your portfolio. Come on lucky number 7!!

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